CAD: Carry advantage to prevail - ING

Analysts at ING note the Canadian dollar has been facing the hurdles of grim data flows and subsequently increased bets on BoC easing.

"However, CAD is up 3% versus the dollar YTD, mostly thanks to the supportive rate environment in Canada. While we expect the BoC to deliver a cut in the next few months, we do not see this as ultimately denting CAD’s rate advantage.

The figure above shows how – according to our forecasts – CAD is bound to retain the best risk-adjusted carry in the G10 space, even in a scenario with one or two BoC cuts. A stabilization in risk sentiment should allow, in our view, commodity currencies to outperform in 2020 and we expect CAD to lead the pack as it should be able to cash in on its attractive carry.

On the external side, our commodities team is looking at more OPEC+ cuts in 2020, which should put a floor under oil prices. The long-awaited ratification of the USMCA may also add to the relative positives for CAD. All these factors lead us to believe that USD/CAD will be able to move below 1.30 in the first half of 2020, despite the prospect of BoC easing.  We see the pair at 1.25 in 4Q20."