Short-term top in USD/JPY? – UOB

FX Strategists at UOB Group believe USD/JPY could have charted a short-term top in the mid-109.00s.

• "24-hour view: USD traded in a quiet manner between 108.91 and 109.29 yesterday, relatively close to our expected sideway trading range of 108.85/109.25. Despite the quiet price action, the underlying tone has weakened and the risk is on the downside. From here, barring a move above 109.30 (minor resistance is at 109.15), USD could move lower and test the strong 108.65 support (minor support is at 108.85).
• Next 1-3 weeks: After breaking above the solid 109.30 resistance and surging to 109.48 last Thursday (07 Nov), USD has not been able to make headway on the upside as it traded sideways over the past couple of days. As highlighted yesterday (12 Nov, spot at 109.05), USD “could not afford to dither as a consolidation below the solid resistance level of 109.75 would quickly increase the risk of a short-term top”. Upward momentum has deteriorated considerably and unless USD can move above 109.30 within these 1 to 2 days, a break of 108.65 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that 109.48 is a short-term top and USD would then likely to trade sideways to lower."