China's credit keeps growing - ING

Iris Pang, the economist for Greater China at ING, notes that M2, a widely-used gauge of credit expansion, increased to 8.4% year on year in September from 8.2% a month ago. 

• "Renminbi loans grew by CNY 13.9 trillion in the third quarter, which is equivalent to around 14.5% of nominal GDP for the four quarters from 3Q18 to 2Q19.
• Of all the items, the most eye-catching is the CNY 2 trillion increase in local government special bonds in the third quarter used to finance infrastructure projects. The quota for these bonds was only CNY 2 trillion, with this entire amount used in 3Q alone. 
• The substantial increase in local government bonds suggests that the economy has relied on infrastructure investments to support GDP growth.
• We expect there will be another CNY 1 trillion increase in local government special bonds in the fourth-quarter, with the central government having allowed local governments to borrow next year's issuance quota.
• This is why we think China will continue to accumulate debt until the US-China trade war ends and during this time infrastructure investments will continue to be the main pillar of economic growth."