Only geopolitics can sink the US into recession - Blackstone’s

The U.S. economy is actually looking “quite robust” thanks to a healthy labor market and higher consumer spending, Steve Schwarzman, the co-founder, chairman and CEO of Blackstone Group, told CNBC.

A slew of disappointing economic data last week suggested the ongoing U.S.-China trade war was starting to take its toll, fueling concerns of a possible recession. On Tuesday, a gauge of U.S. manufacturing showed the lowest reading in more than 10 years for September.

But Schwarzman noted that manufacturing accounts for about 11% of the U.S. economy. “The U.S. consumer is around 70%, maybe even a little more, of the U.S. economy …. (and) the 70% is doing quite well,” he told.

“Why is that? Because we have full employment in the U.S. — 3.5% unemployment it’s the lowest since 1969 — that’s pretty amazing. This shortage of labor is starting to create higher wages for workers …. (and) what people are doing with that money is they’re spending it. So, we have 70% of the economy that is quite robust. The only thing, I think, that’s going to disturb that is some kind of geopolitical problem,” Schwarzman said.

“I don’t see a normal business cycle taking the U.S. into a recession,” he added.