Economists expect a US recession by end-2021 – NABE survey

The latest survey of the US economists conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) revealed on Monday, 34% of economists believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. That's up from 25% in a survey taken in February. Only 2% of those polled expect a recession to begin this year, while 38% predict that it will occur in 2020.

The economists have previously expressed concern that Trump's tariffs and higher budget deficits could eventually dampen the economy.

The economists surveyed by the NABE were skeptical about prospects for success of the latest round of U.S.-China trade negotiations. Only 5% predicted that a comprehensive trade deal would result, 64% suggested a superficial agreement was possible, and nearly one quarter expected nothing to be agreed upon by the two countries.

The 226 respondents, who work mainly for corporations and trade associations, were surveyed between July 14 and Aug. 1. That was before the White House announced 10% tariffs on the additional $300 billion of Chinese imports. As a whole, the business economists' recent responses have represented a rebuke of the Trump administration's overall approach to the economy.