EUR may continue to weaken against CHF - ING

Francesco Pesole, an FX Strategist at ING, notes the EUR/USD came under pressure yesterday and touched 1.11 after comments by ECB’s rate-setting committee member Olli Rehn fostered expectations that the Bank will deliver a heavy package of monetary easing in September.

• "Indeed, market expectations about the September meeting are already aggressively on the dovish side: 18bp of easing is priced in, close to our call for a 20bp cut. Rehn’s remarks exacerbated the existing battered sentiment on EUR after the weak data-flow this week, but EUR/USD may have run short of more downside drivers today. In turn, the 1.110 level could play as a fairly solid support on the day.
• By contrast, the euro may continue to weaken against CHF, which should benefit from three key factors including ECB’s easing expectations, escalating trade tensions; and rising political uncertainty in Italy. In our view, EUR/CHF has the potential to edge below 1.08 in the coming weeks. In terms of economic releases, investors may want to keep an eye on June export data today, mainly with the aim of spotting any slowdown in eurozone exports caused by global trade tensions."