Two European countries could be the big winners from the US-China trade war - Barclays

France and Germany could be the biggest beneficiaries in an escalation in trade tariffs between the U.S. and China, Barclays economists have projected.

U.S. Commerce Secretary said that Trump is “perfectly happy” to slap tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports if the world’s two largest economies fail to agree a trade deal.

However, Christian Keller, head of economic research at Barclays, suggested that trade substitution resulting from additional tariffs, and other non-tariff related barriers, opens opportunities for core euro area economies to gain export market share.

“Our comparison of China’s import structure across its main trading partners reveals that France, Germany and the U.K. are the closest ‘U.S. proxies’ in terms of relative sectoral decomposition of their exports to China. We would therefore expect these countries to win the most if China opts to shop elsewhere,” Keller said.

Barclays’ new baseline global trade scenario assumes a full-blown trade war which would see the U.S. impose a 25% tariff on “virtually all Chinese imports” and a Chinese retaliation, reducing bilateral trade by around 30%.