|06:00||Germany||Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey||October||-1.1||-1.6||0.3|
|12:00||Eurozone||ECB President Lagarde Speaks|
USD strengthened against other major currencies in the European session on Tuesday, as the U.S. Treasury yields continued to grow, making the U.S. currency more attractive to investors.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, increased 0.21% to 93.58.
The 10-year Treasury yields are trading at 1.528%, compared with 1.485% at yesterday’s close. This is the highest rate since June.
U.S. Treasury yields have surged since the end of last week after the Federal Reserve signaled the end of the period of the super-cheap money. The latest policy update from the U.S. central bank indicated that the Fed could begin scaling back its bond purchases in November and end the process by mid-2022. In addition, the Fed officials’ projections of interest rates, known as the dot plot, pointed to a sooner-than-expected rate hike for 2022.
Market participants also assessed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s prepared remarks, which were released ahead of his Senate testimony, set to begin today at 14:00 GMT. The Fed’s chair noted that inflation pressures and hiring difficulties in the world's biggest economy may be "greater and more enduring than anticipated", but added that they would abate. He also noted that “if sustained higher inflation were to become a serious concern” the Fed would certainly respond and use its tools to ensure that inflation runs at levels that are consistent with its goal. These comments heightened inflation concerns.
FXStreet reports that economists at Société Générale suggest that defending the August low of 1.1664 level is crucial for EUR/USD rebound.
“EUR/USD is approaching the low formed in August at 1.1660. Defending this can result in a bounce, however, multi-month trend line near 1.1800 must be reclaimed for an extended bounce.”
“Next downside projections are located near 1.1610."
FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group note that USD/CNH is still seen trading between 6.4359 and 6.4880 for the time being.
24-hour view: “USD traded between 6.4540 and 6.4691 yesterday, narrower than our expected consolidation range of 6.4520/6.4700. The quiet price actions offer no fresh clues and further consolidation appears likely. Expected range for today, 6.4530/6.4730.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “As highlighted, USD is still in a consolidation phase and could trade between 6.4350 and 6.4880 for a period of time.”
Reuters reports that Barclays raised its 2022 oil price forecasts reasoning that a continued recovery in demand could widen a 'persistent' supply shortfall.
The bank raised its 2022 Brent crude price forecast by $9 to $77 per barrel driven in part by "reduced confidence" for a revival of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal.
"OPEC+ tapering would not plug the oil supply gap through at least Q1 2022 as demand recovery is likely to continue to outpace this, due partly to limited capacity of some producers in the group to ramp up output," Barclays said in a note.
This month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a grouping known as OPEC+, agreed to stick to its decision made in July to phase out record output cuts.
But Barclays analysts noted that "limited market share threat from U.S. production growth means there is no urgency for OPEC+ producers to step on the gas".
FXStreet reports that economists at HSBC discuss GBP/USD prospects.
“The details of the BoE policy decision, i.e., the vote on QE and the commentary around when rate hikes might start, were somewhat more hawkish than expected and suggest some room for near-term GBP outperformance.”
“We would still temper long-term optimism on the GBP. The BoE commentary suggests neutral rates may be nearer to 1%. Contrast this with the Federal Reserve, for example, the 2024 median interest rate projection is 1.75%. This should act as an impediment to lasting GBP strength.”
“The UK faces significant and ongoing supply-side pressures regarding gas supply, labour supply, and various logistics issues. These increased costs and burdens on UK competitiveness point to long-term fair value for the GBP drifting lower over time.”
CNBC reports that as Germany prepares for an overhaul in its political status quo, analysts are looking at what impact the next government could have on the European Union.
The Socialist Party, SPD, narrowly won the election, according to preliminary results, with 25.7% of support. It is now trying to form a coalition government with the Green party and the liberal FDP.
The SPD’s candidate for chancellor is Olaf Scholz, the country’s current finance minister and vice chancellor.
“If Olaf Scholz becomes chancellor, he will be quite well-positioned, because he at least has the experience of a finance minister,” Daniela Schwarzer, executive director at Open Society Foundations, said about Scholz’s relationship with Europe.
Despite this, Schwarzer flagged that Scholz remains far less experienced than Merkel, who has played a fundamental role in European politics for decades.
Germany, as one of the founding nations of the EU, has long held a certain weight in European policymaking. During her time as chancellor, Merkel helped lead the bloc’s response to the global financial crisis, sovereign debt crisis, migration crisis and, more recently, the coronavirus pandemic.
Beyond leadership style, there are open questions about what the new German chancellor will mean for deeper integration among the 19-euro economies.
“I think the ability of the German chancellor to act decisively — that’s going to be pretty constrained,” Robin Bew, managing director at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said.
This is because the coalition, once formed, will likely lean a little more toward EU integration than in the past. However, he stressed that a three-way coalition will also be harder to manage, given the wider range of opinions.
Bloomberg reports that the U.K. 10-year yield passed 1% for the first time in 18 months.
The rate on benchmark gilts rose as much as five basis points to 1.003%, the highest level since the market turmoil in March 2020. They haven’t closed above 1% since May 2019. The move comes after some U.S. Treasury yields hit similar pandemic-era milestones.
U.K. sovereign debt has been at the forefront of a global bond selloff in recent sessions after the Bank of England brought forward rate-hike expectations last week. Money markets currently see a first 15 basis point point hike in February, followed by a further quarter-of-a-percentage point rise to 0.5% in August.
eFXdata reports that Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook.
"We view fair value for EUR/USD to be a 1.08-1.20 range, depending on the model employed. Either way, at current levels, valuation is neutral if not an outright headwind for spot. There are a number of ‘second-round’ effects, which could strategically signal or entrench dollar weakness, which we are not seeing. These include 1) broad deregulation, 2) a dollar-based credit boom, 3) strong performance in Latin American assets, 4) a dollar-negative terms of trade shock and 5) a strong rise in European earning expectations versus US. A change in these factors will be key to changing our view on long-term dollar outlook," Danske adds.
FXStreet reports that economists at UBS expect the rise in yields to go further, and they do not see this becoming disruptive or halting the equity rally.
“Even if the 10-year yield rises to 1.8% by the end of 2021, and to 2% in subsequent months, the equity risk premium – which indicates the relative appeal of stocks versus bonds – will still leave equities looking attractive, all else equal.
“Rather than ending the equity rally, we expect the rise in yields to favor cyclical sectors such as financials and energy over growth sectors such as technology, which experience a bigger drag on the present value of future cash flows from higher rates.”
CNBC reports that Goldman Sachs economists have cut their forecasts for China’s economic growth in 2021 as the world’s second-largest economy faces “yet another growth shock” in the form of constraints on energy consumption.
Goldman Sachs now expects China’s GDP to grow 7.8% in 2021 compared with a year ago — that’s lower than its previous forecast for an 8.2% year-on-year expansion.
“A relatively new, but tightening, constraint on growth comes from increased regulatory pressure to meet environmental targets for energy consumption and energy intensity,” the economists said in a Tuesday report.
In addition, regulatory tightening in other sectors and targeted restrictions to curb local Covid-19 outbreaks would also weigh down the Chinese economy, said the bank.
Goldman said production cuts among manufacturers and less fiscal support mean that the Chinese economy will grow at a slower pace in the third and fourth quarters this year.
The bank expects China’s economy to grow 4.8% in the third quarter of 2021 compared to a year ago, and 3.2% in the fourth quarter. Previously, Goldman’s forecasts were 5.1% and 4.1% for the third and fourth quarters, respectively.
China said its economy grew 7.9% year-on-year in the second quarter this year.
FXStreet reports that strategists at DBS Bank raise their oil price forecasts for next few quarters.
“Considering the higher gas prices and potential oil demand boost of 0.5- 1.0mmbpd in the near-term from fuel switching requirements, we revise up our oil price forecasts for the next few quarters. Thus, our 2021 average Brent crude oil price forecast now stands at $67-72/bbl (vs. $65- 70/bbl earlier) and our 2022 Brent crude oil average price forecast is raised to $70-75/bbl (vs. $67-72/bbl earlier).”
“China oil imports will likely be weaker than expected in 2H21, owing to the Delta variant outbreak-related lockdowns and Evergrande contagion, but the oil market remains well supported by demand from other parts of the world, with global oil inventories well below five-year average levels and persistently falling month-on-month.”
|01:30||Australia||Retail Sales, M/M||August||-2.7%||-1.7%|
|06:00||Germany||Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey||October||-1.1||-1.6||0.3|
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose moderately against major currencies.
The ICE index, which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), rose 0.2%.
The US currency is supported by the continued growth of US Treasuries yields, associated with the "hawkish" statements of the Federal Reserve System. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed could start reducing the volume of asset purchases at the meeting on November 2-3 and complete this program by mid-2022. On Monday, he noted that US inflation is likely to remain high in the coming months, but then inflation will begin to slow down.
At the same time, Powell acknowledged the risks that inflationary pressure in the US will be stronger than expected, or deeper. The Fed will raise the benchmark interest rate if "a significant increase in inflation will cause serious concerns," according to the text of its statement prepared for a speech in the US Senate on Tuesday.
The increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds traditionally supports the dollar. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries on Monday broke the 1.5% mark for the first time since June and remains above this level on Tuesday.
The situation in Germany remains in the focus of traders ' attention, where parliamentary elections were held over the weekend and negotiations on the formation of a government coalition are now ahead, which may take several weeks or even months, analysts say.
AP News reports that the World Bank cut its economic growth forecast for developing countries in East Asia due to the impact of the coronavirus’s delta variant and called on governments to help the poor and small businesses avoid long-term damage.
Excluding China’s unexpectedly strong growth, developing countries in East Asia should grow by 2.5% this year, down from a forecast of 4.4% in April, World Bank said in a report. It said China, the region’s biggest economy, should expand by 8.5%.
The region is “suffering a reversal of fortune” after China, Vietnam and other governments contained coronavirus outbreaks last year, the bank said. It said business activity in Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and other economies was improving but now is “showing signs of slowing down.”
The region must increase vaccine production due to the unreliability of imports and high demand, the bank said. It said governments also need to use testing, tracing and isolation to contain infections and strengthen their health systems.
To prevent long-term economic damage, the bank said governments need to support productive companies and encourage new competitors, promote technology development and reduce trade barriers.
According to the report from INSEE, in September 2021, households’ confidence in the economic situation has increased. At 102, the indicator that summarizes it has gained three points and is back above its long-term average (100). Economists had expected an increase to 100.
In September, the households’ opinion balance related to their future financial situation has bounced back by one point. The one relative to their personal past financial situation has been stable. Both balances remain above their long-term averages. The share of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases has decreased this month, the corresponding balance has lost three points, but remains above its average.
In September, the households’ opinion balance related to their future saving capacity has bounced back by three points. In contrast, the one relative to their current saving capacity has fallen by one point, as well as the one about the opportunity to save. These three balances remain well above their long-term average.
In September 2021, the households' fears about unemployment trend have decreased. Below its long term average since June, the corresponding balance moved further away by losing thirteen points this month.
Reuters reports that data from China's statistics bureau showed that profits at China's industrial firms grew at a weaker pace in August from a year earlier, slowing for a sixth consecutive month, as manufacturers struggled with high commodity prices, COVID-19 outbreaks and shortages of some key components.
Profits rose 10.1% on year to 680.3 billion yuan ($105 billion) last month compared with a 16.4% gain in July.
Momentum in the world's second-biggest economy has weakened in recent months, with its vast manufacturing sector buffeted by gathering headwinds.
High commodity prices in recent months have hurt the bottom-lines of many medium-sized and downstream factories. China last week vowed to step up policy coordination to counter challenges from high commodity prices.
To cool prices, China will auction more industrial metals from its state stockpiles next month in a rare release of inventories. Prior to this year, Beijing had not sold off state metal reserves for more than a decade.
Earlier this month, China also released crude oil from its strategic reserves for the first time.
But further dimming the outlook for manufacturers, China has tightened controls on power usage by energy-intensive firms to meet climate goals, hurting production. The power shortages have also triggered electricity cuts across regions this month, clouding the economic outlook
For the January-August period, industrial firms' profits rose 49.5% year-on-year to 5.61 trillion yuan, slowing from a 57.3% increase in the first seven months of 2021. Liabilities at industrial firms rose 8.4% on an annual basis at end-August, up from 8.2% growth as of end-July.
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1688
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 8 is 71326 contracts (according to data from September, 27) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (8607);
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3696
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 8 is 11942 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4150 (2071);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 8 is 17640 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3800 (1774);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.48 versus 1.44 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 27
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
According to the GfK Consumer Sentiment Study, consumer confidence in Germany increases again in September. Both economic and income expectations are increasing, along with propensity to buy. Consequently, GfK is forecasting a value of 0.3 points in consumer sentiment for October, up 1.4 points from September of this year (revised from -1.1 points). Economists had expected a decrease to -1.6 points.
The current rise in income prospects and propensity to consume, as well as a decreasing propensity to save, are contributing to the recovery of consumer sentiment in Germany. As a result, consumer sentiment is higher than it has been for the last year and a half. A higher value was last measured in April 2020, at 2.3 points.
After two months with losses that were in some cases noticeable, the consumer sentiment picked up again in September. with the indicator economic expectations rising by 7.7 points to a total of 48.5 points. This actually represents an increase of currently 24 points compared to the same period of the previous year.
The growing consumer optimism signals that consumers here consider the German economy on course for recovery, although the momentum is somewhat more moderate than expected a few months ago. A stable labor market also contributes significantly to the high level of economic expectations.
|Raw materials||Closed||Change, %|
|01:30 (GMT)||Australia||Retail Sales, M/M||August||-2.7%|
|06:00 (GMT)||Germany||Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey||October||-1.2||-1.8|
|06:45 (GMT)||France||Consumer confidence||September||99||100|
|12:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||ECB President Lagarde Speaks|
|12:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Goods Trade Balance, $ bln.||August||-86.38|
|13:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Housing Price Index, y/y||July||18.8%|
|13:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Housing Price Index, m/m||July||1.6%|
|13:00 (GMT)||U.S.||S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y||July||19.1%||20%|
|14:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index||September||9|
|14:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Fed Chair Powell Testimony|
|14:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Consumer confidence||September||113.8||114.5|
|17:40 (GMT)||U.S.||FOMC Member Bowman Speaks|
|19:00 (GMT)||U.S.||FOMC Member Bostic Speaks|
CURRENCY MARKET DEFINITION
The concept of currency market has several definitions:
Simply put, currency market is the market where currency transactions are made, that is, the currency of one country is exchanged for the currency of another country at a certain exchange rate. The exchange rate is the relative price of currencies of two countries or the currency of one country expressed in another country's monetary units.
Currency market is part of the global financial market, where many operations related to the global movement of capital take place.
TYPES OF MARKETS. RUSSIAN AND INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY MARKETS
There are international and domestic currency markets.
Domestic currency market — is a market within a single country.
The international currency market — is a global market that covers currency markets of all countries in the world. It does not have a specific site where trading is carried out. All operations within it are carried out through a system of cable and satellite channels that link the world's regional currency markets. Regional markets today include the Asian (with centers in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Melbourne), the European (London, Frankfurt am Main, and Zurich), and the American (New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles) markets.
Currency trading on the international currency market is carried out on the basis of market exchange rates, which are set on the basis of supply and demand in the market and under the influence of various macroeconomic data. Forex is the international currency market.
Currency markets can also be divided into exchange and over-the-counter markets. Exchange currency market is an organized market where trading is carried out through an exchange—a special company that sets trading rules and provides all the conditions for organizing trading under these rules.
Over-the-counter currency market — is a market where there are no certain trading rules, and purchase and sale operations are not linked to a specific place of trade, as opposed to the case of an exchange.
As a rule, an over-the-counter currency market is organized by special companies that provide services for the purchase and sale of currencies, which may or may not be members of the currency exchange. Trading operations in this market are now carried out mainly via the Internet.
The over-the-counter currency market is much larger than the exchange market in terms of trading volume. The Forex international over-the-counter currency market is considered the most liquid in the world. It operates around the clock in all financial centers of the world (from New York to Tokyo).
CURRENCY MARKET FUNCTIONS
Currency market— is the most important platform for ensuring the normal course of all global economic processes.
The main macroeconomic functions of the currency market are:
Various currencies are the main trading tool in the currency market. Exchange rates are formed under the influence of supply and demand in the market.
In addition to that, currency rates are influenced by many fundamental factors related to the global economic situation, events in national economies, and political decisions.
News about these factors can be found in various sources:
The more stable an economy is developing, the more stable its currency is. Accordingly, it is possible to predict how the currency will behave in the near future, based on statistical data published in official sources of countries with a certain regularity.
This data includes:
Interest rate level, set by national authorities regulating credit policy, is an equally important indicator. In the European Union, this is ECB–the European Central Bank, in the US, this is the Federal Reserve System, in Japan—the Bank of Japan, in the UK—the Bank of England, in Switzerland—the Swiss national Bank, etc.
The interest rate level is determined at meetings of the national central bank. Then, the decision on the rate is published in official sources. If the central bank of a country reduces the interest rate, the money supply in the country increases, and the national currency depreciates against other world currencies. If the interest rate increases, the national currency will strengthen.
A speech or even a separate statement by a country's leader can reverse a trend. Speeches on these topics may change the currency exchange rate:
All this news is published in various sources. Major international news is more or less easy to find in Russian, but news related to the domestic economic policy and the economy of foreign countries is much less common in the Russian press. Mostly, such news is published by the national media and in the language of the country where the news is published.
It is very difficult for one person to follow all the news at once, and they are likely to miss some important event that can turn the whole situation on the market upside down. Guided by our main principle—to create the best trading conditions for our customers—we try to select the most important news from all over the world and publish them on our website.
The TeleTRADE Department of Analytics monitors news on most national and international news sources on a daily basis and identifies those that can potentially affect exchange rates. These are the main news items that are included in our news feed.
In addition, all our clients have free access to the Dow Jones news feed. This is a joint project of Dow Jones Newswires, the world's largest news agency, and the leading Russian news agency Prime-TASS. The news feed is created specifically for currency traders and those who are interested in getting information about the world's currency markets.
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