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Key events for next week: China and the United States consumer price index, UK GDP, United States retail sales, United States consumer sentiment index

On Monday, at 01:30 GMT, Australia will release the NAB business confidence index for April and report a change in retail sales for March. At 07:30 GMT, Britain will release the Halifax house price index for April. At 08:30 GMT, the euro zone will present the Sentix investor confidence indicator for May. At 23:30 GMT, Japan will announce changes in household spending for March.

On Tuesday, at 01:30 GMT, China will release the consumer price index and the producer price index for April. At 09:00 GMT, Germany and the euro zone will publish the ZEW Institute's business sentiment index for May. At 14:00 GMT, the United States will announce changes in the level of vacancies and labor turnover for March. At 14:30 GMT, the head of the Bank of England Bailey will make a speech.

On Wednesday, at 05:00 GMT, Japan will present the index of leading economic indicators for March. At 06:00 GMT, the UK will report changes in the volume of GDP for the 1st quarter, as well as the volume of industrial production, the volume of manufacturing production, total trade balance, the volume of construction and the volume of investment for the 1st quarter. Also at 06:00 GMT, Germany will publish the consumer price index for April. At 06:45 GMT, France will release the consumer price index for April. At 09:00 GMT, the euro zone will announce the change in industrial production for March. Also at 09:00 GMT, the head of the Bank of England Bailey will make a speech. At 12:30 GMT, the US will present the consumer price index for April. At 14:30 GMT, the US will announce changes in oil reserves according to the Ministry of Energy. At 18:00 GMT, the US will release the budget report for April. At 22:45 GMT, New Zealand will report a change in the level of food prices for April. At 23:50 GMT, Japan will announce a change in the current account balance for March.

On Thursday, at 01:00 GMT, Australia will announce a change in expectations for consumer price inflation from MI for May. At 05:00 GMT in Japan, the Eco Watchers Survey for April will be released. At 12:30 GMT, the US will present the producer price index for April and report on the change in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. At 15:00 GMT, the head of the Bank of Canada Macklem will make a speech. At 16:00 GMT, the head of the Bank of England Bailey will make a speech. At 22:30 GMT, New Zealand will release the Business NZ manufacturing PMI for April.

On Friday, at 11:30 GMT, the eurozone will release the ECB report from the monetary policy meeting. At 12:30 GMT, Canada will announce changes in the volume of production supplies and wholesale trade for March. Also at 12:30 GMT, the US will report on the change in retail trade volume for April and publish the import price index for April. At 13:15 GMT, the United States will announce changes in capacity utilization and industrial production for April. At 14:00 GMT, the US will present the Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index for May and announce changes in inventories for March. At 17:00 GMT, in the United States, the Baker Hughes report on the number of active oil drilling rigs will be released.

On Sunday at 22:45 GMT, New Zealand will report on the change in the number of tourists for March. At 23:50 GMT, Japan will release preliminary GDP data for the 1st quarter.

U.S.: Consumer Credit , March 25.84 (forecast 20)
DJIA +0.60% 34,757.53 +209.00 Nasdaq +0.90% 13,755.40 +122.56 S&P +0.71% 4,231.59 +29.97
U.S.: Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, May 344
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 7,129.71 +53.54 +0.76% DAX 15,399.65 +202.91 +1.34% CAC 40 6,385.51 +28.42 +0.45%
Richmond Fed president Barkin: We are still waiting for substantial further progress on employment to population ratio - Reuters

  • Jobs report is nowhere near what was expected
  • Anecdotally, it seems that employers paying more than $15/hour for entry level jobs have less trouble hiring
  • Fed is making real progress on inflation mandate
  • U.S. economy is likely to return to trend growth level by the end of the year
  • Jobs report shows frictional challenge matching available workers to jobs
  • Surge in demand put producers behind the curve in hiring
  • Inflation will occur this year but businesses are not shifting medium-term pricing plans
  • The issue is not on demand side but supply side of workers matched to jobs

U.S. wholesale inventories increase slightly less than expected in March

The Commerce Department announced on Friday the U.S. wholesale inventories rose 1.3 percent m-o-m in March, being slightly worse than the preliminary estimate of a 1.4 percent m-o-m gain.

Economists had forecast the reading to stay unrevised at 1.4 percent m-o-m.

In February, wholesale inventories rose 0.9 percent m-o-m.

According to the report, durable goods inventories jumped 1.2 percent m-o-m in March, while stocks of nondurable goods climbed 1.4 percent m-o-m.

In y-o-y terms, wholesale inventories surged 4.5 percent in March.


Growth of Canada's private sector activity slows sharply in April

The Ivey Business School Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), measuring Canada’s economic activity, fell to 60.6 in April from 72.9 in March.

A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Within sub-indexes, the employment measure dropped to 58.0 in April from 62.7 in the previous month, while the inventories indicator decreased to 59.4 from 61.7 and the supplier deliveries gauge declined to 37.8 from 39.6. At the same time, the prices index rose to 80.0 in April from 75.1 in March.

U.S.: Wholesale Inventories, March 1.3% (forecast 1.4%)
Canada: Ivey Purchasing Managers Index, April 60.6
U.S. Stocks open: Dow -0.21%, Nasdaq +0.50%, S&P +0.04%
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.27%, NASDAQ futures +1.16%

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Friday, as tech stocks surged as U.S. Treasury yields dropped sharply after disappointing U.S. employment report for April.

Global Stocks:



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Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE





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Goldman Sachs





Google Inc.





Home Depot Inc





Intel Corp





International Business Machines Co...





International Paper Company





Johnson & Johnson





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Merck & Co Inc





Microsoft Corp










Pfizer Inc





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Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ





Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ





The Coca-Cola Co





Twitter, Inc., NYSE





UnitedHealth Group Inc





Verizon Communications Inc










Wal-Mart Stores Inc





Walt Disney Co





Yandex N.V., NASDAQ





Canada sheds 207,100 new jobs in April; unemployment rate climbs to 8.1 percent

Statistics Canada reported on Friday that the number of employed people decreased by 207,100 m-o-m in April (or -1.1 percent m-o-m) after an unrevised gain of 303,100 m-o-m in the previous month. This was the largest decrease in Canada’s employment since January and reflected the tightening of public health measures in several provinces in late March and early April.

Economists had forecast a decline of 175,000 m-o-m.

Meanwhile, Canada's unemployment rate rose to 8.1 percent in April from 7.5 percent in March, exceeding economists’ forecast for 7.8 percent. The April increase in rate was driven by gains in the number of people searching for work (+67,000; +4.9 percent m-o-m) and those on temporary layoff (+57,000; +37.6 percent m-o-m).

According to the report, full-time employment decreased 129,400 (or -0.8 percent m-o-m) in April, while part-time jobs fell by 77,800 (or -2.3 percent m-o-m).

In April, the number of public sector employees declined by 13,200 (or -0.3 percent m-o-m), and the number of private sector employees plunged by 203,700 (or -1.7 percent m-o-m). Meanwhile, the number of self-employed increased 9,700 (or +0.4 percent m-o-m) last month.

Sector-wise, employment dropped both in goods-producing (-0.3 percent m-o-m) and service-producing (-1.3 percent m-o-m) businesses.

Initiations before the market open

Raytheon Technologies (RTX) initiated with a Buy at Redburn

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increase much less than forecast in April; unemployment rate edges up

The U.S. Labor Department announced on Friday that nonfarm payrolls rose by 266,000 in April after a revised 770,000 increase in the prior month (originally a gain of 916,000). This marked the smallest monthly advance in three months.

According to the report, notable job gains in leisure and hospitality (+331,000 jobs in April), other services (+44,000), and local government education (+31,000) were partially offset by employment declines in temporary help services (-111,000) and in couriers and messengers (-77,000).

The unemployment rate edged up to 6.1 percent in April from 6.0 percent in March.

Economists had forecast the nonfarm payrolls to increase by 978,000 and the jobless rate to drop to 5.8 percent.

The labor force participation rate increased to 61.7 percent in April from 61.5 percent in the previous month, while hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 0.7 percent m-o-m (or $0.21) to $30.17, following an unrevised 0.1 percent m-o-m drop in March. Economists had forecast the average hourly earnings to be flat m-o-m in April. Over the year, average hourly earnings went up 0.3 percent in April, following an unrevised 4.2 percent jump in March.

The average workweek increased by 0.1 hour to 35.0 hours in April, being above economists' forecast for 34.9 hours.

U.S.: Average hourly earnings , April 0.7% (forecast 0%)
U.S.: Average workweek, April 35 (forecast 34.9)
U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls, April 266 (forecast 978)
U.S.: Labor Force Participation Rate, April 61.7%
U.S.: Government Payrolls, April 48
U.S.: Manufacturing Payrolls, April -18 (forecast 55)
U.S.: Private Nonfarm Payrolls, April 218 (forecast 893)
U.S.: Unemployment Rate, April 6.1% (forecast 5.8%)
Canada: Employment , April -207.1 (forecast -175)
Canada: Unemployment rate, April 8.1% (forecast 7.8%)
BoE's MPC member Broadbent: We need clear evidence of sustainable return of inflation to target before we start to remove policy accommodation

  • Bias towards policy easing at BoE is now less pronounced
  • Downside risks are less pronounced now
  • Big open question is whether Covid leads many people to decide they no longer need to be based in cities and instead work remotely

EUR/USD holds off support at 1.1990 to see next resistance at 1.2103 - Credit Suisse

FXStreet reports that the Credit Suisse analyst team notes that EUR/USD has essentially held price support at 1.1995/90, just ahead of the 38.2% retracement of the March/April rally at 1.1980, whilst also maintaining a foothold above the 55 and 200-day moving averages. The next important resistance is seen at 1.2103, then 1.2151/60.

“EUR/USD has essentially held price support at 1.1995/90. The subsequent recovery has been impressive, with the market breaking above price resistance at 1.2077, which suggests strength back to 1.2103 initially, ahead of the 1.2151/60 recent high.”

“Beyond the 1.2151/60 region, the pair can see resistance at the 78.6% retracement of the Q1 fall at 1.2212, with scope for the 1.2243 February high.” 

“Support moves to 1.2044 initially, then 1.2013, with key still 1.1990/80. Below here is needed to rekindle thoughts of a near-term top for a test of next supports at 1.1948/42, the 200-day average and mid-April ‘outside day’ low.” 

European session review: USD under pressure ahead of U.S. employment report for April

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
06:00GermanyCurrent Account March18.6 30.2
06:00GermanyTrade Balance (non s.a.), blnMarch18.2 20.5
06:00GermanyIndustrial Production s.a. (MoM)March-1.9%2.3%2.5%
06:45FranceNon-Farm PayrollsQuarter I-0.1% 0.3%
06:45FranceTrade Balance, blnMarch-5.1 -6.1
06:45FranceIndustrial Production, m/mMarch-4.8%2%0.8%
07:00Switzerland Foreign Currency ReservesApril930.3 914.1
08:30United KingdomPMI ConstructionApril61.762.361.6
10:00EurozoneECB President Lagarde Speaks    

USD was under pressure in the European session on Friday as investors awaited the release of the U.S.  jobs report for April, due at  12:30 GMT.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, dropped 0.12% to 90.84.

It is expected that April's jobs report will show that the U.S. economy is accelerating strongly out of the coronavirus pandemic, bolstering investors’ risk appetite and putting more pressure on the safe-haven U.S. dollar. On the other hand, better-than-anticipated data could heighten inflation worries and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve might be forced to start reducing its monetary stimulus sooner than expected that, in turn, could lift the U.S. bond yields and the U.S. currency as well.

Economists forecast the U.S. economy to have added 978,000 jobs last month after 916,000 in March. The unemployment rate is seen to decrease to 5.8% in April from 6% in March.

Japan's PM Suga believes it's possible to hold safe and secure Olympics with proper coronavirus measures

  • We will step up efforts to prevent the spread of virus variants
  • We are aiming to administer 1 million vaccine shots a day to the public
  • We will obtain 50 million doses from Pfizer by the end of September
  • We are aware that there are worries among the public about holding Olympics

GBP/USD set to eventually climb to the 1.49/1.51 zone - Credit Suisse

GBP/USD set to eventually climb to the 1.49/1.51 zone - Credit Suisse

FXStreet reports that economists at Credit Suisse maintain a core and long-held bullish outlook for GBP/USD with a major base having been established last year above 1.3514. Cable is set to look for an eventual move above 1.4017 to resolve the current range higher for a move to our 1.4302/77 first bull target and eventually 1.49/1.51.

“GBP/USD extends its consolidation in its now well-defined 1.3669/1.4017 range. With a major base in place above 1.3514 we maintain our long-term bullish outlook but with a break above 1.4017 needed to resolve the range higher for a move back to 1.4237, then our 1.4302/77 first core upside target – the 2018 highs and 38.2% retracement of the 2014/2020 bear trend.” 

“Big picture, we continue to look for an eventual move to 1.49/1.51.”

“Near-term support moves to 1.3802/01.”

USD/JPY: Short-term top in place? - UOB

FXStreet reports that UOB Group’s FX Strategists noted USD/JPY could have reached a short-term peak.

24-hour view: “USD subsequently dipped to 108.99 before closing slightly lower at 109.08 (-0.09%). Downward momentum has improved a tad and the bias for today is tilted to the downside. However, any weakness is likely limited to a test of 108.80. The strong support at 108.55 is unlikely to come under threat.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “In our narrative from Tuesday (04 May, spot at 109.10), we indicated that ‘there is scope for the current USD strength to extend to 109.95’. We added, ‘the prospect for such a move is not high for now’. Since then, USD has not been able to make any headway on the upside. Shorter-term momentum is beginning to shift to the downside and the risk of a short-term top has increased. However, only a break of 108.55 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the positive phase that started late last week has ended.”

USD/CAD set to fall towards the 1.2062 2017 low - Credit Suisse

USD/CAD set to fall towards the 1.2062 2017 low - Credit Suisse

FXStreet reports that in line with their bullish commodity view, economists at Credit Suisse maintain a medium-term preference for commodity currencies, especially the Canadian dollar. The USD/CAD is set for a test of the 2017 low at 1.2062, in their view.

“With commodities surging and completing a long-term base, the commodity currencies should benefit, with USD/CAD one of our favored expressions. 

“We still see scope for USD/CAD to eventually test the 1.2062 [2017] low, which is expected to be a tough initial barrier.” 

Company News: American Intl (AIG) quarterly earnings beat analysts’ estimates

American Intl (AIG) reported Q1 FY 2021 earnings of $1.05 per share (versus $0.12 per share in Q1 FY 2020), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.01 per share.

AIG closed Thursday's trading session at $50.17 (+2.66%).

AUD/USD to target the end of February high at 0.8007 above 0.7849 - Commerzbank

FXStreet reports that AUD/USD stays bid above trendline support at 0.7665. Once the 0.7849 mid-March high is cleared, the aussie is set to test the end of February high at 0.8007, as reported by Commerzbank.

“AUD/USD continues to consolidate below the recent highs at 0.7815/49.” 

“Dips are indicated to remain shallow and the market should remain underpinned by the 0.7665 support line.”

“Above 0.7849 targets the end of February high at 0.8007. Longer-term, the 0.8135 2018 high is in play.”

Targeting AUD/NZD at 1.05 by mid-year - ANZ

eFXdata reports that ANZ Research discusses NZD outlook and sees a scope for NZD strength in the near-term.

"In the short term, the risk is that this apparent optimism will manifests in a higher NZD as markets respond to what we expect to be some strong data releases in the US that are likely to fuel risk appetite. Strategically, broad USD performance and an acceleration in global growth are expected to be the primary drivers for the NZD/USD. Overall, the NZD crosses benefit from themes of economic reopening and developed market vaccine rollouts, which we expect to outweigh uncertainty associated with emerging market growth," ANZ adds.

USD/CNH: Risk now shifted to the downside – UOB

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group said that USD/CNH now risks further pullbacks, although a strong support emerges at 6.4400. 

Next 1-3 weeks: “Two days ago, we highlighted that while the recent negative phase in USD has ended, ‘it is too soon to expect a recovery’. We held the view that USD could trade between 6.4650 and 6.5020. We did not anticipate the rapid manner by which USD plummeted to 6.4635 yesterday. The risk has shifted to the downside again but in view of the nascent build-up in downward momentum, any weakness may find it difficult to break 6.4400. The downside risk is deemed intact as long as USD does not move above 6.4820 (‘strong resistance’ level).”

ECB’s Kazaks says June decision to slow bond-buying possible

Bloomberg reports that according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks, the European Central Bank could decide to scale back its emergency bond-buying program as early as next month if the euro-area economy doesn’t deteriorate.

Kazaks said the ECB’s pledge to keep financing conditions favorable remains key to determining how much support the 19-nation bloc needs to recover. 

“If financial conditions remain favorable, in June we can decide to buy less,” Kazaks said. “Flexibility is at the very core of PEPP.

Kazaks, one of 25 policy makers on the Governing Council, said the economy will need significant monetary stimulus well beyond the end of the pandemic. That’s being delivered by emergency bond purchases, negative interest rates, and targeted long-term loans that keep banks’ credit terms for companies and households loose.

His argument suggests that further increases in market interest rates in the weeks and months to come needn’t trigger more ECB support. He said pent-up consumer demand, bank lending and spillovers from massive U.S. fiscal stimulus pose upside risks to the economic outlook.

Japan: Labor Cash Earnings, YoY, March 0.2%
Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party wins new parliamentary seat in Labour stronghold

CNBC reports that Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party has convincingly won a byelection in the northern English town of Hartlepool, cementing its strong footing across working class areas of the country that once belonged to the rival Labour party.

Jill Mortimer beat Labour’s Paul Williams by nearly 7,000 votes, according to the count announced on Friday morning, and became the first Conservative to win the seat since the constituency was formed in 1974.

By-elections happen in Britain when a seat in the House of Commons becomes vacant in between general elections.

The win will be seen as a barometer for the current mood in the country as it slowly reopens after strict coronavirus lockdown measures. Johnson was heavily criticized for the initial response to the pandemic, and with over 127,000 reported fatalities, Britain has one of the worst death rates in Europe and the world.

UK сonstruction PMI fell slightly in April

According to the report from IHS Markit/CIPS, UK construction companies signalled a strong increase in output volumes during April, with continued recoveries seen in civil engineering activity, commercial work and house building. Workloads were boosted by the fastest rise in overall new orders since September 2014. On a less positive note, demand and supply imbalances meant that the rate of input cost inflation picked up for the seventh month in a row to its highest since the survey began in April 1997.

The headline UK Construction PMI Total Activity Index posted 61.6 in April, down only fractionally from March's six-and-a-half year peak of 61.7. Any figure above 50.0 indicates an overall expansion of construction output. The index has posted in growth territory in ten of the past eleven months, with January 2021 the exception.

Commercial work (index at 62.2) was the best-performing broad category of construction output in April, although the rate of expansion eased slightly since March. Survey respondents widely commented on a boost to client demand from rising business confidence and the reopening of the UK economy.

Civil engineering (index at 61.5) bucked the softer overall growth trend in April and signalled its fastest speed of recovery since September 2014. Construction companies often cited increased levels of work on major infrastructure programmes, including contract awards from HS2 and Highways England.

Meanwhile, house building (index at 61.2) continued to rise at a strong pace in April, but the rate of growth eased from March's recent peak (64.0). There were widespread reports of robust demand for residential building projects and new housing developments.

Looking ahead, construction companies remained highly upbeat about their growth prospects in April. More than half of the survey panel (57%) expect a rise in business activity during the next 12 months, while only 7% forecast a decline.

United Kingdom: PMI Construction, April 61.6 (forecast 62.3)
China-Australia relations are unlikely to be back on track soon - analyst

CNBC reports that according to one political expert, China-Australia ties won’t be getting back on track anytime soon.. 

James Laurenceson, director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney, described the strained relations between Canberra and Beijing as “complicated.”

“I see no prospects on the horizon for this relationship to get back on track,” he told, adding both sides are blaming each other for the breakdown in dialogue.

The National Development and Reform Commission, China’s economic planning agency, announced Thursday that it will “indefinitely suspend all activities under the framework of the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue.”

The move comes after some officials in Australia launched unspecified measures “out of a Cold War mindset” to disrupt cooperation with China, the NDRC statement said.

China’s decision to halt all activities under the framework is more than just a symbolic move, said Laurenceson.

He called Beijing’s latest move a “tit-for-tat” retaliation to show its displeasure after Australia scrapped two Belt and Road deals last month.

Australian Minister for Trade Tourism and Investment Dan Tehan on Thursday expressed his disappointment at the suspension of talks.

GBP/USD to surge above 1.40 on a soft NFP reading – TDS

FXStreet reports that economists at TD Securities note that cable continues to exhibit all the hallmarks of a range-trade and highlight the key levels to watch.

“The MPC simply delivered few surprises to the overall market. As such, the decision to taper asset purchases looks fully priced. As a final component, part of the underwhelming response could be the result of the way in which the move was communicated. We think the FX market will still see this as a policy shift – at least at the margin.”

“A GBP/USD break higher looks path-dependent upon both a softer NFP reading and a pledge by the Scottish pro-independence factions not to pursue an immediate referendum if they achieve the expected majority in the local parliament. That set of outcomes would likely be followed by another test of the recent range highs in the 1.4000/10 zone. A clear break above would naturally target a move toward the late February peak at 1.4237.” 

“We think dip buyers are likely to emerge first around 1.3800, while the double-bottom at 1.3670 should provide fairly robust support at this stage.”

Biden willing to accept 25% corporate tax rate to fund spending programs

Reuters reports that U.S. President Joe Biden said a corporate tax rate between 25% and 28% could help pay for badly needed infrastructure, suggesting he could accept a lower rate than what he has proposed in his search for Republican support for the funding.

"The way I can pay for this, is making sure that the largest companies don't pay zero, and reducing the (2017 corporate) tax cut to between 25 and 28" percent, Biden said.

In his $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan, the Democratic president initially proposed raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Tax experts and congressional aides told in April that a 25% rate would be a likely compromise.

"What I'm proposing is badly needed" and will be paid for, said Biden, dismissing the "trickle down" theory that helping businesses and the wealthy will benefit those farther down the economic ladder. "We've got to build from the bottom up and the middle out."

Asian session review: the US dollar consolidated against major currencies

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
01:30AustraliaRBA Monetary Policy Statement    
01:45ChinaMarkit/Caixin Services PMIApril54.3 56.3
03:00New ZealandExpected Annual Inflation 2y from nowQuarter II1.9% 2.05%
03:00ChinaTrade Balance, blnApril13.828.142.85
05:45SwitzerlandUnemployment Rate (non s.a.)April3.4%3.3%3.3%
06:00GermanyCurrent Account March18.6 30.2
06:00GermanyTrade Balance (non s.a.), blnMarch18.2 20.5
06:00GermanyIndustrial Production s.a. (MoM)March-1.9%2.3%2.5%
06:45FranceNon-Farm PayrollsQuarter I-0.1% 0.3%
06:45FranceTrade Balance, blnMarch-5.1 -6.1
06:45FranceIndustrial Production, m/mMarch-4.8%2%0.8%
07:00Switzerland Foreign Currency ReservesApril930.486 914.1

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar was almost unchanged against the euro and the yen.

Market participants expect the publication of data on the US labor market for April. The Ministry of Labor will release the report today at 12: 30 GMT. According to data released yesterday, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time last week decreased by 92 thousand - to 498 thousand people. This is the lowest value of the indicator since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The ICE index, which tracks the dollar's performance against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), fell 0.03%.

The index retreated from the two-week highs it hit earlier this week, after US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates to avoid overheating the US economy. Later, Yellen noted that she is not trying to make forecasts about the Fed's policy, nor to make recommendations to the Fed.

The pound rose slightly against the US dollar. The Bank of England at the end of the May meeting kept the base interest rate at 0.1%. The regulator also decided to leave the volume of the asset purchase program at the level of 895 billion pounds, including the purchase of government bonds in the amount of 875 billion pounds. Analysts did not expect changes in the parameters of the Bank of England's monetary policy. At the same time, the Bank decided to reduce the pace of asset repurchases, as some experts expected.

Switzerland: Foreign Currency Reserves, April 914.1
French industrial production rose less than expected in March

According to the report from Insee, in March 2021, output increased in the manufacturing industry (+0.4%, after −4.8%), as well as in the whole industry (+0.8%, after −4.8%). Economists had expected a 2.0% increase in the whole industry.

Compared to February 2020 (the last month before the first general lockdown), output remained in sharp decline in the manufacturing industry (−6.8%), as well as in the whole industry (−5.9%).

In March, output bounced back in mining and quarrying, energy, water supply (+2.9% after −5.0%) and in the manufacture of food products and beverages (+1.3% after −2.5%). It continued to expand in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum after the shutdown of several refineries in late 2020 (+7.0% after +12.2%). Output grew moderately in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods (+0.4% after −5.4%) and in the manufacture of transport equipment (+0.4% after −11.2%). It was unchanged in “other manufacturing” (stability after −4.1%).

In March 2021, output yet remained in sharp decline compared to its February 2020 level in most industrial activities. It slumped in the manufacture of transport equipment (−25.1%), more sharply in the manufacture of other transport equipment (−29.6%) than in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (−18.1%). It also plummeted in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum (−14.9%). Compared to February 2020, output decreased more moderately in “other manufacturing” (−4.3%) and in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods (−3.2%), thanks in particular to the sub-branches of pharmaceuticals (+5.4%) and electrical equipment (+4.3%).

Over the first quarter of 2021, manufacturing output was up compared to the same quarter of 2020 (+1.7%), as well as output in the whole industry (+1.7%). However, this relatively moderate evolution masks very large differences between months, given that the beginning of the general lockdown took place in mid-March 2020.

France: Industrial Production, m/m, March 0.8% (forecast 2%)
France: Trade Balance, bln, March -6.1
Germany's trade surplus rose modestly in March

The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that in March 2021, German exports were up 1.2% and imports 6.5% on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis compared with February 2021. Destatis also reports that, after calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports were 0.9% lower and imports 6.7% higher than in February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the coronavirus pandemic in Germany.

Germany exported goods to the value of 126.5 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 105.9 billion euros in March 2021. Compared with March 2020, exports increased by 16.1%, and imports by 15.5% in March 2021. These are the highest nominal values ever recorded for monthly exports and imports in foreign trade statistics.

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 20.5 billion euros in March 2021. In March 2020 the surplus of the foreign trade balance amounted to 17.2 billion euros. The calendar and seasonally adjusted surplus of March 2021 was 14.3 billion euros.

The German current account of the balance of payments showed a surplus of 30.2 billion euros in March 2021, which takes into account the balances of trade in goods (+23.3 billion euros), services (+1.3 billion euros), primary income (+10.0 billion euros) and secondary income (-4.5 billion euros). In March 2020, the German current account showed a surplus of 24.8 billion euros.

Options levels on friday, May 7, 2021 EURUSD GBPUSD


Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2152 (2001)

$1.2106 (1974)

$1.2077 (1615)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2056

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2037 (2029)

$1.1997 (1619)

$1.1949 (2234)


- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 7 is 63450 contracts (according to data from May, 6) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1700 (3067);


$1.4051 (1159)

$1.4002 (1115)

$1.3956 (930)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3895

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3839 (752)

$1.3797 (427)

$1.3768 (334)


- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 7 is 11659 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4200 (2932);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 7 is 19694 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3700 (1956);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.69 versus 1.70 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 6


* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

German industrial production rose more than expected in March

According to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), in March 2021, production in industry was up by 2.5% on the previous month on a price, seasonally and calendar adjusted basis. Economists had expected a 2.3% increase. Compared with March 2020, the increase in calendar adjusted production in industry amounted to 5.1%.

Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, production in March 2021 was 4.3% lower in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms.

In March 2021, production in industry excluding energy and construction was up by 0.7%. Within industry, the production of intermediate goods showed an increase of 1.2% and the production of consumer goods of 2.9%. The production of capital goods decreased by 0.4%. Outside industry, energy production was up by 2.4% in March 2021 and the production in construction increased by 10.8%.

In February 2021, the corrected figure on the production in industry showed a decrease of 1.9% (provisional: -1.6%) from January 2021.

Germany: Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln, March 20.5
Germany: Current Account , March 30.2
Germany: Industrial Production s.a. (MoM), March 2.5% (forecast 2.3%)
Switzerland: Unemployment Rate (non s.a.), April 3.3% (forecast 3.3%)
China: Trade Balance, bln, April 42.85 (forecast 28.1)
Commodities. Daily history for Thursday, May 6, 2021
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 68.46 -0.2
Silver 27.291 3.08
Gold 1814.907 1.58
Palladium 2942.54 -0.71
China: Markit/Caixin Services PMI, April 56.3
Schedule for today, Friday, May 7, 2021
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
01:30 (GMT) Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement    
01:45 (GMT) China Markit/Caixin Services PMI April 54.3  
03:00 (GMT) New Zealand Expected Annual Inflation 2y from now Quarter II 1.9%  
03:00 (GMT) China Trade Balance, bln April 13.8 28.1
05:45 (GMT) Switzerland Unemployment Rate (non s.a.) April 3.4% 3.3%
06:00 (GMT) Germany Current Account March 18.8  
06:00 (GMT) Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) March -1.6% 2.3%
06:00 (GMT) Germany Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln March 18.1  
06:45 (GMT) France Non-Farm Payrolls Quarter I -0.1%  
06:45 (GMT) France Trade Balance, bln March -5.25  
06:45 (GMT) France Industrial Production, m/m March -4.7% 2%
07:00 (GMT) Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves April 930.486  
08:30 (GMT) United Kingdom PMI Construction April 61.7 62.3
10:00 (GMT) Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks    
12:30 (GMT) U.S. Manufacturing Payrolls April 53 55
12:30 (GMT) U.S. Average workweek April 34.9 34.9
12:30 (GMT) U.S. Government Payrolls April 136  
12:30 (GMT) U.S. Average hourly earnings April -0.1% 0%
12:30 (GMT) U.S. Private Nonfarm Payrolls April 780 893
12:30 (GMT) U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate April 61.5%  
12:30 (GMT) Canada Employment April 303.1 -175
12:30 (GMT) Canada Unemployment rate April 7.5% 7.8%
12:30 (GMT) U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls April 916 978
12:30 (GMT) U.S. Unemployment Rate April 6% 5.8%
14:00 (GMT) U.S. Wholesale Inventories March 0.9% 1.4%
14:00 (GMT) Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index April 72.9  
17:00 (GMT) U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count May 342  
19:00 (GMT) U.S. Consumer Credit March 27.58 20
Currencies. Daily history for Thursday, May 6, 2021
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.77809 0.47
EURJPY 131.553 0.36
EURUSD 1.20624 0.49
GBPJPY 151.459 -0.24
GBPUSD 1.38872 -0.12
NZDUSD 0.72279 0.26
USDCAD 1.21536 -0.91
USDCHF 0.90727 -0.59
USDJPY 109.052 -0.13


The concept of currency market has several definitions:

  • Currency market is the sphere of economic relations that are manifested in the purchase and sale of currency values (foreign currency, securities in foreign currency), as well as operations related to the investment of capital in foreign currency;
  • Currency market is a financial center where currency purchase and sale transactions based on supply and demand for them are concentrated;
  • Curency market is a whole of authorized banks, investment companies, brokerages, exchanges, and foreign banks that perform foreign exchange operations.
  • Currency market is a whole of communications systems that link banks in different countries that conduct international currency transactions.

Simply put, currency market is the market where currency transactions are made, that is, the currency of one country is exchanged for the currency of another country at a certain exchange rate. The exchange rate is the relative price of currencies of two countries or the currency of one country expressed in another country's monetary units.

Currency market is part of the global financial market, where many operations related to the global movement of capital take place.

There are international and domestic currency markets.

Domestic currency market — is a market within a single country.

The international currency market — is a global market that covers currency markets of all countries in the world. It does not have a specific site where trading is carried out. All operations within it are carried out through a system of cable and satellite channels that link the world's regional currency markets. Regional markets today include the Asian (with centers in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Melbourne), the European (London, Frankfurt am Main, and Zurich), and the American (New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles) markets.

Currency trading on the international currency market is carried out on the basis of market exchange rates, which are set on the basis of supply and demand in the market and under the influence of various macroeconomic data. Forex is the international currency market.

Currency markets can also be divided into exchange and over-the-counter markets. Exchange currency market is an organized market where trading is carried out through an exchange—a special company that sets trading rules and provides all the conditions for organizing trading under these rules.

Over-the-counter currency market — is a market where there are no certain trading rules, and purchase and sale operations are not linked to a specific place of trade, as opposed to the case of an exchange.

As a rule, an over-the-counter currency market is organized by special companies that provide services for the purchase and sale of currencies, which may or may not be members of the currency exchange. Trading operations in this market are now carried out mainly via the Internet.

The over-the-counter currency market is much larger than the exchange market in terms of trading volume. The Forex international over-the-counter currency market is considered the most liquid in the world. It operates around the clock in all financial centers of the world (from New York to Tokyo).

Currency market— is the most important platform for ensuring the normal course of all global economic processes.

The main macroeconomic functions of the currency market are:

  • creating conditions for the subjects of foreign exchange relations to make timely international current and capital payments and thereby promoting the development of foreign trade;
  • providing conditions and mechanisms for the implementation of monetary and economic policy of the state;
  • diversifying foreign exchange reserves;
  • forming the exchange rate under the influence of supply and demand;

Various currencies are the main trading tool in the currency market. Exchange rates are formed under the influence of supply and demand in the market.

In addition to that, currency rates are influenced by many fundamental factors related to the global economic situation, events in national economies, and political decisions.

News about these factors can be found in various sources:

  • Reports showing a country´s level of economic development.

The more stable an economy is developing, the more stable its currency is. Accordingly, it is possible to predict how the currency will behave in the near future, based on statistical data published in official sources of countries with a certain regularity.
This data includes:

  • GDP
  • unemployment;
  • return on equity;
  • consumer price index;
  • industrial price index;
  • propensity to consume;
  • salaries outside of the agricultural sector;
  • residential construction, etc.

Interest rate level, set by national authorities regulating credit policy, is an equally important indicator. In the European Union, this is ECB–the European Central Bank, in the US, this is the Federal Reserve System, in Japan—the Bank of Japan, in the UK—the Bank of England, in Switzerland—the Swiss national Bank, etc.

The interest rate level is determined at meetings of the national central bank. Then, the decision on the rate is published in official sources. If the central bank of a country reduces the interest rate, the money supply in the country increases, and the national currency depreciates against other world currencies. If the interest rate increases, the national currency will strengthen.

  • Speeches of country leaders, leading economists and analysts.

A speech or even a separate statement by a country's leader can reverse a trend. Speeches on these topics may change the currency exchange rate:

  • analysis of the situation on the currency market;
  • changes in monetary or economic policy;
  • adoption of a budget policy;
  • forecasts of the economic situation, etc.

All this news is published in various sources. Major international news is more or less easy to find in Russian, but news related to the domestic economic policy and the economy of foreign countries is much less common in the Russian press. Mostly, such news is published by the national media and in the language of the country where the news is published.

It is very difficult for one person to follow all the news at once, and they are likely to miss some important event that can turn the whole situation on the market upside down. Guided by our main principle—to create the best trading conditions for our customers—we try to select the most important news from all over the world and publish them on our website.

The TeleTRADE Department of Analytics monitors news on most national and international news sources on a daily basis and identifies those that can potentially affect exchange rates. These are the main news items that are included in our news feed.

In addition, all our clients have free access to the Dow Jones news feed. This is a joint project of Dow Jones Newswires, the world's largest news agency, and the leading Russian news agency Prime-TASS. The news feed is created specifically for currency traders and those who are interested in getting information about the world's currency markets.

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