On Monday, at 01:00 GMT, Australia will publish MI Inflation gauge for June. At 01:30 GMT Australia will release the ANZ Job Advertisements for June. At 06:00 GMT, Germany will announce changes in factory orders for May. At 08:30 GMT, Britain will present the construction PMI for June. Also at 08: 30 GMT, the Euro zone will release the investor confidence indicator from Sentix for July. At 09:00 GMT, the Euro zone will announce changes in retail trade for May. At 13:45 GMT, the US will publish the services PMI for June, and at 14:00 GMT - the ISM non-manufacturing index for June. At 14:30 GMT in Canada the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey will be released. At 22:00 GMT, New Zealand will present the NZIER business confidence index for the 2nd quarter. At 22:30 GMT, Australia will release the AIG services index for June. At 23:30 GMT, Japan will announce changes in household spending and labor cash earning for May.
On Tuesday, at 04:30 GMT in Australia, the RBA interest rate decision will be announced. At 05:00 GMT, Japan will release the leading economic index for May. At 06:00 GMT, Germany will report changes in industrial production for May. At 06:45 GMT, France will announce a change in the foreign trade balance for May. At 07:00 GMT, Switzerland will announce changes in the volume of the SNB's foreign currency reserves for June. At 07:30 GMT, Britain will release the Halifax house price index for June. At 14:00 GMT Canada will publish the Ivey purchasing managers index for June. At 14:00 GMT US will release the JOLTs Job Openings for May. At 23:50 GMT, Japan will report a change in the current account balance for May.
On Wednesday, at 05:00 GMT in Japan, the Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook for June will be released. At 05:45 GMT, Switzerland will announce the change in the unemployment rate for June. At 09:00 GMT in the eurozone, EU economic forecasts will be presented. At 14:30 GMT, the US will report changes in oil reserves according to the Ministry of energy. At 19:00 GMT, the US will announce changes in consumer credit for May. At 23:50 GMT, Japan will announce a change in core machinery orders for May.
On Thursday, at 01:00 GMT, New Zealand will release ANZ's business confidence indicator for July. At 01:30 GMT, China will publish the consumer price index and producer price index for June. At 06:00 GMT, Germany will report a change in the foreign trade balance for May. Also at 06:00 GMT, Japan will announce a change in machine tool orders for June. In addition, a meeting of the Eurogroup will be held on Thursday. At 12:30 GMT, the US will report a change in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for June. At 14:00 GMT, the US will announce changes in wholesale inventories for May.
On Friday, at 06:00 GMT, Germany will publish the consumer price index for June. At 06:45 GMT, France will announce changes in industrial production for May, and at 08:00 GMT, the IEA oil market report will be released. At 12:30 GMT, Canada will report changes in the unemployment rate and employment for June. Also at 12: 30 GMT, the US will present the producer price index for June. At 17:00 GMT in the US, the Baker Hughes report on the number of active oil drilling rigs will be released.
The report from
IHS Markit revealed on Friday that the decline in the activity in Germany’s
services sector eased to the weakest during the coronacrisis so far.
According to the report, the headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index came in at 47.3 in June, up from 32.6 in May and compared economists’ forecast of 45.8. This was the highest reading since February, but it still pointed that business activity was subdued across all parts of the services economy, amid widespread reports of a general lack of demand. That said, there was evidence of activity gradually returning to those sectors previously shut down, and to the Hotels & Restaurants sector in particular. Lower inflows of new business were recorded across the services economy for the fourth month in a row in June, and export business remained particularly weak due to travel restrictions. Employment fell again in June, but the decline was the weakest in the current four-month sequence of retrenchment. Meanwhile, sentiment was back in positive territory for the first time since February amid growing hopes of a return to more normal conditions over the next 12 months.
The Germany Composite Output Index, a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index, climbed from 32.3 in May to a four-month high of 47.0, but fell short of signaling a return to growth
The report from
IHS Markit and Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS) indicated
on Friday that the worst phase of the service sector downturn had passed as
more businesses start to reopen and adapt their operations to meet social
According to the report, the Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) jumped to 47.1 in June from 29.0 in May, signaling a continuing turnaround in business conditions across the UK service sector.
Economists had forecast the indicator to increase to 47.0. The 50 mark divides contraction and expansion.
The latest reading was the highest since February, but still under the neutral 50.0 threshold.
According to the report, subdued demand and disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic were cited by respondents as factors constricting business activity in June, while an easing of lockdown measures and reopening of the UK economy had a favourable impact on business activity.
Inflows of new work fell the least since the downturn began in March. Meanwhile, export sales continue to decline at a steeper rate than overall new business volumes during June, reflecting ongoing international travel restrictions. Elsewhere, backlogs of work across the UK’s service sector recorded another steep reduction in June, while the rate of job shedding eased to its least marked since the start of the downturn in March.
The UK All Sector Output Index, a weighted average of the UK Manufacturing Output Index, the UK Total Construction Activity Index and the UK Services Business Activity Index, came in at 47.7 in June, up from 30.0 in May. This was the highest reading for four months.
The report from
IHS Markit revealed on Friday that activity in Eurozone’s services sector
continued to recover ground from April’s record low during June.
According to the report, the IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Services Business Activity Index came in at 48.3 in June, up from 30.5 in May. This was the highest reading since February, but remained below the 50.0-nochange mark, indicating that the business environment for service providers continued to be challenging. Economists had forecast the indicator to increase to 47.3 in June.
Employment fell for the fourth month in a row, albeit at a slower rate than in May. The levels of work outstanding also continued to decline, albeit at a softer pace. Meantime, levels of incoming new business followed a similar trend to activity as demand struggled to gain meaningful traction despite the easing of lockdown restrictions across the region.
The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index surged to 48.5 in June from 31.9 in the previous month, pointing to the softest contraction in private sector activity in four months. Economists had expected the index to increase to 47.5 in June.
The country-level data for June revealed that all countries enjoyed their best Composite PMI readings since February. Of note, growth was seen in France, which was the best-performing country overall. Spain moved close to stabilization, but activity continued to fall at solid rates in Italy and Germany. Ireland was the worst-performing nation.
The report from
IHS Markit revealed on Friday that activity in France’s services sector began
to recover in June, following three months of sharp contraction amid
coronavirus lockdown restrictions.
According to the report, the headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit France Services Business Activity Index came in at 50.7 in June, up from 31.1 in May. The reading to a slight recovery in output after the sharp reductions recorded over the previous three months.
Economists had forecast the indicator to climb to 50.3 in June.
The expansion came despite continued demand weakness, with new businesses declining further, albeit at a softer rate than in May. Meanwhile, sentiment towards the 12-month business outlook returned into positive territory, with panelists hopeful that the worst of the coronavirus crisis is over. Employment at French service providers continued to tumble June, but the decline was the softest for three months. On the price front, input prices rose for the first time in three months. At the same time, the output prices continued to drop, but the rate of decrease eased to the softest in the current four-month sequence of reduction.
FXStreet reports that with the various stress points (Sino-US tensions, rising virus incidence) not alleviating and the aussie nearer top end of the range, Terence Wu from OCBC Bank will not chase AUD/USD higher for now. The bias remains for the pair to revert to a range-bound posture for now while below 0.7060 and with 0.69 holding the downside.
“Four consecutive sessions of gains have seen the AUD/USD move near the top end of its recent ranges. Remain skeptical on a range break at this stage, especially with the usual suspects of risk-off still lurking in the horizon.”
“The aussie may need to extend north of 0.7060 to revert to a clear uptrend. For now, still expect the pair to stay range bound, with 0.6900 as the first support on the downside.”
Reuters reports that British factories are increasingly planning to lay off workers, a warning sign for the economy as it tries to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, an industry survey showed on Friday.
Some 46% of manufacturers expect to make redundancies over the next six months, up sharply from 25% in May, according to sectoral group Make UK which is calling on the government take more measures immediately to support jobs.
"Conditions are still very tough for many companies with disruption likely to continue for some time," said Stephen Phipson, chief executive of Make UK.
"This has led some to reluctantly conclude that with demand unlikely to return for some time, if at all, they are moving to the painful choice of redundancy."
The survey showed only a slight improvement in gauges of revenue and new orders.
Make UK said finance minister Rishi Sunak - who has already announced around 133 billion pounds' worth of emergency measures, mostly to protect jobs - should consider cutting business rate taxes for manufacturers, a priority for 61% of the companies surveyed.
Sunak is due to announce an update to his plans for steering the economy through the coronavirus crisis on July 8.
In June, the Bank of England said Britain's economy looked on course to have shrunk by around 20% in the first six months of 2020.
FXStreet reports that in a recent research report, Moody’s Investors Service turned bearish on oil demand growth outlook, courtesy of the coronavirus pandemic.
“Global oil demand may have peaked in 2019 as COVID-19 has heightened the risk that behavioural changes.”
“COVID-19 lockdown experience of reduced commuting and business travel, alongside better air quality and family time, may deliver lasting changes in energy consumption.”
“A structural shift in demand creates greater risk in forecasting the price of oil, undermining the assessment of profitability for new projects by the time oil is produced in the future. This could create stranded assets in the future which do not produce the expected levels of financial returns.”
“If economic growth does not offset the potential behavioural and other changes impacting oil demand, it could take a long time to recover to 2019 levels with increased risk that demand already peaked in 2019.”
“Airlines may also be forced to permanently cut unprofitable routes and reduce services, which will reduce the number of flights. We do not expect to see a substantial recovery in passenger demand until 2023.”
“Shipping will also suffer on account of reduced trade, fewer cruises and localisation of supply chains, it said. The change in behaviour and social-distancing norms will prevent low oil prices from stimulating demand.”
“Oil demand would fall further after 2025 as emission targets in China, Europe and California require more electrification and greater internal combustion engine efficiency.”
Reuters reports that Japan’s government will conduct a review of bank transfer fees as part of a broader move to improve digital payment infrastructure, an outline of this year’s growth strategy showed on Friday.
The government will also focus on measures to make it easier for working people such as freelancers to take on extra jobs and improving rules of the country’s digital advertising market, according to the outline.
The Council on Investments for the Future on Friday kicked off debate of this year’s mid- to long-term growth strategy, which forms a pillar of the government’s economic policy framework.
RTTNews reports that UK consumer sentiment improved at the end of June, according to the flash survey conducted by the market research group GfK.
The consumer sentiment index rose three points to -27 over the last two weeks of June. The June reading was -30.
Four measures of the index increased, while one measure decreased. Assessment of past and future financial situation strengthened during the survey period.
Consumers' view on past general economic situation weakened, while outlook for future economic situation improved.
The major purchase index advanced notably by seven points as more shoppers hit the high streets.
"Despite the backdrop of dire warnings about the state of the economy, large-scale job losses, the end of furlough with the prospect of further unemployment, and a possible second-wave of COVID-19, consumers appear to be slightly more confident as lockdown loosens across parts of the UK," Joe Staton, GfK's client strategy director, said.
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1233
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date August, 7 is 48157 contracts (according to data from July, 2) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1400 (5389);
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2486
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 7 is 16503 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (1689);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 7 is 19456 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2550 (1473);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.18 versus 1.18 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 2
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group noted a move to 108.40 in USD/JPY lost some momentum in past sessions.
24-hour view: USD traded between 107.32 and 107.72 yesterday, close to our expected sideway-trading range of 107.30/107.70. The price action offers no fresh clues and USD could continue to trade sideways, expected to be within a 107.25/107.75 range.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted on Tuesday (30 Jun, spot at 107.70) that ‘upward momentum is beginning to improve and USD could strengthen towards 108.40’. USD subsequently rose to a high of 108.14 before dropping back quickly and over the past couple of days, traded mostly sideways. Upward momentum has eased but only a break of 107.00 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the upside risk has dissipated. In other words, there is still chance for USD to move to 108.40 even though the odds for such a scenario have diminished.”
|Raw materials||Closed||Change, %|
|Index||Change, points||Closed||Change, %|
|01:30||Australia||Retail Sales, M/M||May||-17.7%||16.3%|
|01:45||China||Markit/Caixin Services PMI||June||55.0|
|08:30||United Kingdom||Purchasing Manager Index Services||June||29.0||47|
CURRENCY MARKET DEFINITION
The concept of currency market has several definitions:
Simply put, currency market is the market where currency transactions are made, that is, the currency of one country is exchanged for the currency of another country at a certain exchange rate. The exchange rate is the relative price of currencies of two countries or the currency of one country expressed in another country's monetary units.
Currency market is part of the global financial market, where many operations related to the global movement of capital take place.
TYPES OF MARKETS. RUSSIAN AND INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY MARKETS
There are international and domestic currency markets.
Domestic currency market — is a market within a single country.
The international currency market — is a global market that covers currency markets of all countries in the world. It does not have a specific site where trading is carried out. All operations within it are carried out through a system of cable and satellite channels that link the world's regional currency markets. Regional markets today include the Asian (with centers in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Melbourne), the European (London, Frankfurt am Main, and Zurich), and the American (New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles) markets.
Currency trading on the international currency market is carried out on the basis of market exchange rates, which are set on the basis of supply and demand in the market and under the influence of various macroeconomic data. Forex is the international currency market.
Currency markets can also be divided into exchange and over-the-counter markets. Exchange currency market is an organized market where trading is carried out through an exchange—a special company that sets trading rules and provides all the conditions for organizing trading under these rules.
Over-the-counter currency market — is a market where there are no certain trading rules, and purchase and sale operations are not linked to a specific place of trade, as opposed to the case of an exchange.
As a rule, an over-the-counter currency market is organized by special companies that provide services for the purchase and sale of currencies, which may or may not be members of the currency exchange. Trading operations in this market are now carried out mainly via the Internet.
The over-the-counter currency market is much larger than the exchange market in terms of trading volume. The Forex international over-the-counter currency market is considered the most liquid in the world. It operates around the clock in all financial centers of the world (from New York to Tokyo).
CURRENCY MARKET FUNCTIONS
Currency market— is the most important platform for ensuring the normal course of all global economic processes.
The main macroeconomic functions of the currency market are:
Various currencies are the main trading tool in the currency market. Exchange rates are formed under the influence of supply and demand in the market.
In addition to that, currency rates are influenced by many fundamental factors related to the global economic situation, events in national economies, and political decisions.
News about these factors can be found in various sources:
The more stable an economy is developing, the more stable its currency is. Accordingly, it is possible to predict how the currency will behave in the near future, based on statistical data published in official sources of countries with a certain regularity.
This data includes:
Interest rate level, set by national authorities regulating credit policy, is an equally important indicator. In the European Union, this is ECB–the European Central Bank, in the US, this is the Federal Reserve System, in Japan—the Bank of Japan, in the UK—the Bank of England, in Switzerland—the Swiss national Bank, etc.
The interest rate level is determined at meetings of the national central bank. Then, the decision on the rate is published in official sources. If the central bank of a country reduces the interest rate, the money supply in the country increases, and the national currency depreciates against other world currencies. If the interest rate increases, the national currency will strengthen.
A speech or even a separate statement by a country's leader can reverse a trend. Speeches on these topics may change the currency exchange rate:
All this news is published in various sources. Major international news is more or less easy to find in Russian, but news related to the domestic economic policy and the economy of foreign countries is much less common in the Russian press. Mostly, such news is published by the national media and in the language of the country where the news is published.
It is very difficult for one person to follow all the news at once, and they are likely to miss some important event that can turn the whole situation on the market upside down. Guided by our main principle—to create the best trading conditions for our customers—we try to select the most important news from all over the world and publish them on our website.
The TeleTRADE Department of Analytics monitors news on most national and international news sources on a daily basis and identifies those that can potentially affect exchange rates. These are the main news items that are included in our news feed.
In addition, all our clients have free access to the Dow Jones news feed. This is a joint project of Dow Jones Newswires, the world's largest news agency, and the leading Russian news agency Prime-TASS. The news feed is created specifically for currency traders and those who are interested in getting information about the world's currency markets.
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