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01.04.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.20% to
104.24 points this week, while the EURUSD has declined by 0.22% to 1.07990. The
Dollar's upside correction paused after the EURUSD plunged to 1.07320 last
Wednesday, breaking below key support at 1.07800–1.08000. The pair has since
rebounded, stabilising just above support, but a clear path toward
1.06800–1.07000 is now open. Any strong catalyst could drive the pair toward
these downside targets.
This week presents multiple downside risks for
the EURUSD, including the release of U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMIs.
Additionally, the U.S.
27.03.2025
Brent crude prices have risen by 1.4% to
$73.34 per barrel this week, retreating from Wednesday’s peak of $73.98—the
highest level since March 3. The price is now positioned between the support at
$68.00–$70.00 and the resistance at $78.00–$80.00. A rebound towards
$74.00–$75.00 was expected, but a further significant increase appears unlikely
as large investors remain in their long positions to capitalise on the price
recovery without adding new bets.
The United States Oil Fund (USO) recorded
modest net inflows of $12.
25.03.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is rising by 0.29%
to 104.40 points, while EURUSD is down by 0.21% to 1.07860, hovering near its
March 7 lows. This signals a correction following a two-week consolidation,
during which the pair tested resistance at 1.09500–1.10500. Despite this
decline, overbought pressures remain.
However, large investors appear to be betting
on a weaker dollar. The WisdomTree Bloomberg US Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU)
reported net outflows of $64.59 million last week, even as the dollar
strengthened.
20.03.2025
Gold prices have surged by 1.9% to $3,042 per
troy ounce, setting new record highs five times in the past six days. The
latest all-time high of $3,057 per ounce was reached following last week’s U.S.
inflation data release. Consumer prices declined to 2.8% YoY in February from
3.0%, the lowest level since November 2024, while the Producer Price Index
dropped to 3.2% YoY from 3.7%, signalling further potential inflation cooling.
Meanwhile, trade tensions have eased, at least
temporarily. After the European Union retaliated against U.S.
18.03.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is down 0.44% this
week, trading at 103.26, while the EURUSD pair has risen by 0.75% to 1.09530,
its highest level since November 6, 2024. There has been no downside correction
in the pair following the release of softer U.S. inflation data.
February inflation fell to 2.8% year-on-year
from 2.9%, marking its lowest level since November 2024. The Producer Price
Index also declined to 3.2% YoY from 3.7%. Last week, the EURUSD climbed 0.36%
to 1.08710 in response to the data.
13.03.2025
Brent crude is down 0.02% to $70.65 per barrel
this week, testing the support range of $68.00–$70.00 per barrel twice but
failing to break below it. This could indicate a potential recovery.
Large investors remain cautious, having
observed the $70.00–$90.00 per barrel range for at least two years. Over this
period, four downside attempts have failed, each followed by a rebound to
$80.00 per barrel. Shorting oil remains a challenge. Last week, large investors
sold United States Oil Fund (USO) shares worth $57.8 million following earlier
sell-offs of $21.9 million, securing a 4–6% profit.
11.03.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is down by 0.27%
to 103.55 points this week, while the EURUSD has risen by 0.60% to 1.09150,
marking its highest level since November 6, 2024, when the Trump-driven rally
began. Few anticipated such a rapid strengthening of the Euro, which was
largely driven by incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s announcement of a
massive spending plan aimed at bolstering the military and heavily investing in
the economy. This initiative will require substantial borrowing, with defense spending
exempt from the country’s constitutional debt brake.
06.03.2025
Gold prices have risen 1.45% to $2,898 per
troy ounce this week, rebounding after a 4.1% correction last week. Prices
briefly reached $2,929 per ounce, approaching the all-time high of $2,954. The
correction was largely driven by recession fears and uncertainty surrounding
U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
Last week’s macroeconomic data pointed to a
sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy, with the S&P 500 declining 3.0% and
large investors reducing their gold positions. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
reported a neutral balance last week but recorded net outflows of $234.
04.03.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index
(DXY) is down 0.85% to 106.26 points this week with the EURUSD rising by 1.63% to 1.05400. The Dollar’s sharp decline from
Monday is unusual and may be driven by slowing inflation. The January PCE Index
fell to 2.5% YoY from 2.6%, while core PCE (excluding food and fuel) dropped to
2.6% YoY from 2.8%. This weakness was compounded by disappointing ISM March
Manufacturing PMI, which declined to 50.3 points, although S&P Global Manufacturing
PMI increased to 52.7 points.
Additionally, Atlanta Fed Q1 2025 GDP
projections suggest the U.S. economy may contract by 2.
27.02.2025
Brent crude benchmark
prices are down 2.0% to $72.86 this week, breaking below the support at
$74.00–75.00 per barrel. Prices are now rapidly
approaching the strong support zone at $68.00–70.00 per barrel. This downturn
is not driven by a single factor but rather by a snowballing effect of negative
developments accelerating the decline.
Disappointing macroeconomic data, including
higher-than-expected initial jobless claims and weak services PMI last week,
were compounded by Walmart’s (WMT) weak Q1 2025 forward guidance. Additionally,
U.S.
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