Brent crude prices dropped by 1.7% to $86.00
per barrel this week, which is above the dip at $84.45 on July 10. Brent prices
jumped to two-month highs at $88.52 on July 5. However, June unemployment in
the United States unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, putting pressure on oil prices.
Consequently, Brent prices retreated by 0.7% to $87.06 on the same day.
The pressure continued this week amid fears of
severe oil infrastructure damage in the Gulf of Mexico. However, the actual
damage caused by Hurricane Beryl was much less than feared, meaning that U.S.
oil exports will likely recover soon as weather conditions normalize.
Oil traders were also disappointed by
lower-than-expected June inflation in China. Consumer prices dropped to 0.2%
YoY, missing the 0.4% consensus. Additionally, the monthly consumer price index
declined by 0.2% compared to the expected 0.1% rise. This is a negative signal
for oil prices.
Overall, negative developments in the two
largest oil-consuming nations sent oil prices down. However, OPEC maintained
its oil demand increase forecast for 2024 at 2.2 million barrels per day, which
provided some support for prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration
reported another decline of 3.44 million barrels in oil inventories, beating
the consensus expectation of an increase by 700,000 barrels. This news followed
a previous report of a 12.15 million barrel decline, indicating that oil demand
in the United States remains high.
The upside potential for oil prices is rather
limited after a 2.2% recovery for Brent crude. Tensions in the Middle East are
seen easing after Hezbollah promised to cease fire if Israel agreed to a truce
with Hamas. Previously, fears of military escalation in northern Israel had
contributed to oil prices hitting $88.00-90.00 per barrel.
The June inflation report in the U.S. could
introduce some volatility to the market. Wall Street expects headline inflation
to slow to 3.1% YoY compared to 3.3% in May. Any unexpected surprises could
elevate market volatility. Brent prices may continue to consolidate around
$85.00-86.00 per barrel.
Large investors see prices trending upwards,
at least in the short term. The United States Oil Fund (USO) reported net fund
inflows of $63.5 million and $16.8 million over the last two weeks,
respectively. However, this week saw investors withdrawing $40.6 million. This
suggests that some investors believe Brent prices may jump again to
$88.00-90.00 per barrel before potentially dropping to the support level at
$80.00-82.00 per barrel.
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