Новини ринків

• EUR/USD defends Friday’s corrective bounce off three-week low with mild intraday gains.
• Weekend statements from ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Kashkari allow Euro to extend previous corrective bounce.
• Softer US inflation pressure, fears about September rate hike prod EUR/USD bears.
• Euro buyers need validation from preliminary readings of Eurozone inflation data for July, Q2 GDP and US employment numbers.

EUR/USD picks up bids to consolidate the two-week losses amid Monday’s early Asian session, mildly positive near 1.1025 by the press time. In doing so, the Euro pair justifies the latest comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials, as well as the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers, while extending the previous day’s rebound from the multi-day low, mainly backed by softer US data.

ECB President Christine Lagarde termed the latest economic output numbers from France, Germany and Spain as “quite encouraging” while speaking to French daily Le Figaro during the weekend. On Friday, Germany's Bundesbank President and ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel cited stubborn core inflation to defend the hawkish ECB policies while suggesting higher interest rates for longer.

Alternatively, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari flagged fears of job losses and slower growth while praising the inflation outlook. The policymaker also criticized the central bank’s aggressive monetary tightening campaign to tamp down price surges.

Meanwhile, headlines suggesting more stimulus from China also exert downside pressure on the US Dollar and allow the EUR/USD pair to consolidate the latest losses as it dropped in the last two consecutive weeks despite bouncing off a three-week low on Friday.

Friday’s EUR/USD rebound could be linked to softer prints of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, as it eased to 4.1% YoY for June versus 4.2% expected and 4.6% prior. Further details revealed that the Personal Income softened to 0.3% versus 0.5% expected and previous readings whereas the Personal Spending rose 0.5% from 0.4% market forecasts and 0.1% prior. Additionally, the final readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July eased to 71.6 from the initial estimations of 72.6 while the University of Michigan’s (UoM) 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations also edged lower to 3.0% from 3.1% expected and prior.

It should be noted that a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) Officials crossed wires on Friday while suggesting a lack of hawkish bias among them. That said, Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said, “We are close to a peak or at the peak,” whereas policymaker Peter Kazimir signaled that they are nearing completion of monetary policy tightening. ECB’s Šimkus, however, also added, “Even if we were to take a break in September, it would be premature to consider it the end.” On the other hand, policymaker Boštjan Vasle said that the September meeting could bring a hike or a pause while policymaker Madis Muller mentioned that the ECB decisions are no longer obvious at the current rate level.

That said, strong prints of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized for the second quarter (Q2) joined the upbeat figures of the US Durable Goods Orders for June to allow the US Dollar to stay firmer for the second consecutive week. Also likely to have favored the US Dollar, as well as weighed on the EUR/USD price, is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish hike and emphasis on the data-dependency of the next rate decision.

Looking ahead, German Retail Sales and the first readings of the Eurozone inflation data for July, per the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, as well as the second-quarter (Q2) seasonally adjusted Gross Domestic Product for the bloc, will entertain the EUR/USD pair traders. However, major attention will be given to the United States ISM PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July for clear directions. Should the Eurozone inflation and growth numbers pick up, the Euro pair can extend the latest recovery.

Also read: EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Euro vulnerable after ECB and stronger US data

Technical analysis

A convergence of the 10-DMA and the 21-DMA restricts the immediate upside of the EUR/USD pair near 1.1065-70. It’s worth noting, however, that the Euro pair remains off the bear’s radar unless providing a daily close beneath the two-month-old rising support line, close to 1.0975 by the press time. That said, MACD and RSI indicators do suggest the pair’s continuation of the southward grind.

• NZD/USD consolidates in a tight range between 0.6150- 0.6165.
• The June's US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index decreased to 3% from 3.8% in May.
• The New Zealand job market data, the US Nonfarm Payrolls remain in the spotlight this week.

The NZD/USD pair oscillates in a narrow range in the early Asian session. The downtick in the Kiwi is supported by the strengthening of the US Dollar across the board following the strong US Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the robust June Durable Goods Orders data. NZD/USD currently trades around 0.6155, gaining 0.11% for the day. 

On Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that June's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index decreased to 3% from 3.8% in May. This report fell short of the market's expectation of 3.1%. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE Price Index, came in at 4.1% annually, down from 4.6% in May and below market expectations of 4.2%. While, Personal Income and Personal Spending MoM increased 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively.

That said, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50% in the July meeting on July 12, which triggered further downside on the Kiwi. Market participants will focus on the Q2 Employment data on Wednesday. New Zealand's unemployment rate has remained at record lows. If labor market conditions worsen, the RBNZ will likely maintain interest rates at 5.5% at its next monetary policy meeting in August.

Looking ahead, July's New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook and ANZ Business Confidence will be due later in the day. Also, New Zealand will release job market data on Wednesday. Market participants will focus on the US employment data. The JOLTS Job Openings report, ADP Private Employment, Weekly Jobless Claims, and Unit Labour Cost will be released later this week. The week's key event is the Nonfarm Payrolls report, due on Friday. The economy is expected to have created 180,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining 3.6%. This data could give the NZD/USD pair a clear direction.

• Gold Price jostles with support-turned-resistance after posting the first weekly loss in four.
• US Dollar recovery appears elusive amid mixed United States data, latest headlines from China, Fed teases XAU/USD rebound.
• Expectations of China stimulus, challenges for restrictive monetary policies underpin bullish bias for the Gold Price.
• US Nonfarm Payrolls, ISM PMIs for July eyed for clear directions.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) holds onto Friday’s recovery from more than a two-week low while picking up bids to $1,960 amid the early hours of Asian morning on Monday. In doing so, the XAU/USD justifies Friday’s downbeat US inflation clues and justifies weekend headlines from China, as well as dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari. That said, the XAU/USD marked the first weekly loss in four after the US Dollar cheered upbeat United States growth data, as well as the Fed’s readiness for a September rate hike.

Gold Price edges higher on China, Fed news

Gold Price licks its wounds after snapping a three-week uptrend as weekend headlines from China and comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari prod the US Dollar bulls and allow the market sentiment to remain firmer.

That said, China's State Council Information Office conveyed a surprise press conference by Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission Li Chunlin and officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce and the State Administration for Market Regulation to unveil more measures to boost the consumption per Bloomberg.

On the other hand, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari flagged fears of job losses and slower growth while praising the inflation outlook. The policymaker also criticized the central bank’s aggressive monetary tightening campaign to tamp down price surges.

Considering China’s status as one of the world’s biggest Gold consumers and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) indecision about future rate hikes, the latest headlines put a floor under the XAU/USD price, at least for the short term.

Upbeat United States data, ECB move weigh on XAU/USD

During the last week, upbeat United States data and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish hike propelled the US Dollar and weighed on the Gold price, despite Friday’s corrective bounce due to the softer inflation clues from the US.

That said, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, came in 4.1% YoY for June versus 4.2% expected and 4.6% prior. Further details revealed that the Personal Income softened to 0.3% versus 0.5% expected and previous readings whereas the Personal Spending rose 0.5% from 0.4% market forecasts and 0.1% prior. Additionally, the final readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July eased to 71.6 from the initial estimations of 72.6 while the University of Michigan’s (UoM) 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations also edged lower to 3.0% from 3.1% expected and prior.

That said, strong prints of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized for the second quarter (Q2) joined the upbeat figures of the US Durable Goods Orders for June to allow the US Dollar to stay firmer for the second consecutive week. Also likely to have favored the US Dollar, is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish hike and emphasis on the data-dependency of the next rate decision.

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed positive and the yields retreated together with the US Dollar. Even so, the US Dollar Index (DXY) marked two consecutive weekly gains by the end of Friday’s trading. It’s worth noting that the S&P500 Futures print mild gains by the press time.

China/US PMI, NFP will be crucial for Gold traders

Although the latest headlines have been impressive for Gold buyers, China’s official PMIs for July will entertain intraday traders of the XAU/USD. However, major attention will be given to the United States ISM PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July.

Also read: Gold Price Weekly Forecast: US jobs report could help XAU/USD finally find direction

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold Price broke a one-month-old rising support line, now immediate resistance near $1,963, and helped bears cheer the first weekly loss in four. However, the 200-SMA joined the oversold conditions of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14, to trigger the metal’s corrective bounce afterward.

However, the recovery moves also gain support from an impending bull cross on the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator.

Even so, a clear upside break of the aforementioned support-turned-resistance surrounding $1,960-65 becomes necessary to convince the Gold buyers.

Following that, a 10-week-old horizontal resistance of around $1,985 will act as the final defense of the XAU/USD bears.

On the contrary, the Gold Price pullback remains elusive beyond the 200-SMA level of near $1,942.

In a case where the XAU/USD remains bearish past $1,942, multiple levels around $1,930 and $1,900 round figure may test the Gold bears before directing them to the previous monthly low of around $1,893.

Overall, Gold Price lacks bullish bias but the bears need validation from $1,942 to retake control.

Gold Price: Four-hour chart

Trend: Limited upside expected

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari crossed wires via a CBS News interview as he raised fears of witnessing an uptick in unemployment while praising the overall inflation outlook.

The policymaker cited a lack of surety about the end of the Fed’s rate hike trajectory but said that the US central bank is, “making good progress”.

Fed’s Kashkari highlights the US central bank’s data dependency while suggesting mixed views about the September rate hike.

Further, the policymaker also ruled out recession fears for the US economy, for now, while hoping that, “remains true”. “US economy has remained resilient amid various shocks, will continue to monitor any future shocks,” added Fed’s Kashkari per Reuters.

Market reaction

The news joined comments from ECB’s Lagarde to allow the EUR/USD pair in defending Friday’s corrective bounce by staying mildly bid near 1.1025 amid early Monday morning in Asia.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde termed the latest economic output numbers from France, Germany and Spain as “quite encouraging” while speaking to French daily Le Figaro during the weekend.

ECB’s Lagarde also said that these data support their scenario favoring the ECB expectations of witnessing a 0.90% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the Euro Area this year.

Apart from Lagarde, Germany's Bundesbank President and ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel also crossed wires late Friday while stating expectations of witnessing softer inflation.

The policymaker cited stubborn core inflation to defend the hawkish ECB policies while suggesting higher interest rates for longer.

Market reaction

EUR/USD offers no surprises during the week-start, posting mild gains around 1.1025 after posting a two-week downtrend in the last. However, the market players remain cautious about the Euro pair’s recovery ahead of today’s preliminary readings of the Eurozone inflation and growth data, as well as Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Also read: EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Euro vulnerable after ECB and stronger US data

• AUD/USD holds lower grounds at multi-day bottom after two-week downtrend.
• US Dollar bulls cheer upbeat data despite witnessing a pullback on Friday.
• Downbeat Aussie numbers prod RBA hawks ahead of this week’s monetary policy meeting.
• A slew of US data including ISM PMI, NFP will offer a busy week ahead.

AUD/USD begins the key week without any surprises, making rounds to 0.6650 after declining in the last two consecutive weeks. In doing so, the Aussie stays depressed at the lowest levels in three weeks as market players await this week’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting announcements and the US employment report for July, mainly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).

That said, the downbeat Aussie data contrasted with the firmer US statistics and weighed on the Aussie pair the last week. However, the weekend headlines from China and the Federal Reserve (Fed) put a floor under the AUD/USD price.

During the weekend, China's State Council Information Office conveyed a surprise press conference by Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission Li Chunlin and officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce and the State Administration for Market Regulation to unveil more measures to boost the consumption.

On the other hand, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari flagged fears of job losses and slower growth while praising the inflation outlook. The policymaker also criticized the central bank’s aggressive monetary tightening campaign to tamp down price surges.

On Friday, Australia Retail Sales slumps 0.8% MoM in June versus 0.0% expected and prior growth of 0.7%. It should be noted that the second-quarter Producer Price Index (PPI) data have been disappointing with 3.9% YoY and 0.5% QoQ figures. Previously, softer prints of Australian inflation and PMI numbers justified the RBA’s latest pause and pushed back the AUD/USD bulls.

Talking about the US statistics, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, came in 4.1% YoY for June versus 4.2% expected and 4.6% prior. Further details revealed that the Personal Income softened to 0.3% versus 0.5% expected and previous readings whereas the Personal Spending rose 0.5% from 0.4% market forecasts and 0.1% prior. Additionally, the final readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July eased to 71.6 from the initial estimations of 72.6 while the University of Michigan’s (UoM) 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations also edged lower to 3.0% from 3.1% expected and prior.

That said, strong prints of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized for the second quarter (Q2) joined the upbeat figures of the US Durable Goods Orders for June to allow the US Dollar to stay firmer for the second consecutive week. Also likely to have favored the US Dollar, is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish hike and emphasis on the data-dependency of the next rate decision.

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed positive and the yields retreated together with the US Dollar. Even so, the US Dollar Index (DXY) marked two consecutive weekly gains by the end of Friday’s trading.

Moving on, China’s official PMIs for July will entertain intraday traders of the AUD/USD pair. However, major attention will be given to the RBA decision, as it is likely to announce a 0.25% rate hike, as well as the early week ISM PMIs from the US ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.

Technical analysis

A daily closing beneath the 0.6690 support confluence comprising the 100-DMA and a two-month-old rising trend line keeps AUD/USD bears hopeful of witnessing further downside towards testing the late June swing low of near 0.6600.