The USD/JPY pair pulled back from its highest levels since July, retreating to 156.50 following the release of US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data. Softer inflation metrics, coupled with insights from the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate decision, moderated bullish momentum for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the pair’s technical indicators signal caution despite maintaining an overall bullish bias.
The latest PCE data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed subdued price pressures in November. Prices for goods rose marginally by less than 0.1%, while service prices increased by 0.2%. Food and energy prices also registered a modest 0.2% increase. Excluding these volatile components, Core PCE rose by 0.1% on a monthly basis and by 2.8% year-over-year, below market expectations.
The Fed’s anticipated 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday brought the key rate to a range of 4.25%-4.50%, levels last seen in December 2022. While the decision aligned with expectations, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s reserved commentary on future monetary easing dampened hopes for aggressive rate cuts in the near term. Softer inflation data has since provided some reassurance, but uncertainty remains about the central bank’s next moves. The next highlight will be December's labor data, to be released in early January of next year.
The USD/JPY’s retreat to 156.50 highlights a cooling in bullish momentum, with key technical indicators signaling mixed conditions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was rejected at the overbought threshold of 70, indicating potential exhaustion in the uptrend. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram continues to print rising green bars, reflecting persistent bullish momentum.
Immediate support is observed at 156.00, with a break below this level potentially exposing 155.50 as the next key downside level. On the upside, resistance remains at 157.00, with a decisive break above this level required to retest recent highs. While the pair remains in a broader uptrend, a period of consolidation may be necessary before the next directional move.
The Australian Dollar consolidates around 0.6200 on Friday as traders digest November’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) expected to keep interest rates steady at the first 2025 policy meeting, investors also await next week’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes for insight into potential rate moves.
Soft US PCE figures are tempering the Greenback’s strength, offering modest support to the Aussie’s nascent rebound.
The AUD/USD is extending its gains for a second consecutive day. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 33, rebounding from oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints flat red bars.
Although momentum remains fragile, the pair’s modest recovery and improving technical signals suggest it may stabilize further if incoming data continues to temper the US Dollar’s strength.
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, took a hit after soft Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data was released during the European session. Markets are also assessing political woes in the US, which soured market sentiment.
After Wednesday’s upward movements, indicators are easing as the index breaks below 108.00 on Friday, currently hovering near 107.60. The pullback suggests the recent rally may be taking a breather. Still, if the DXY can hold above its 20-day Simple Moving Average, the broader bullish structure remains intact, leaving room for further gains once profit-taking subsides and fundamental drivers reassert themselves.
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the 'de facto' currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
After suffering a sharp drop of more than 1% on Wednesday, the EUR/USD managed a minor rebound by the end of the week, adding 0.28% to trade near 1.0395 on Friday. Despite this modest improvement, the pair remains below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which continues to limit upside potential and maintain a cautious outlook.
Technical indicators suggest that while selling pressure may be easing, the overall bias remains tilted to the downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 37, still in negative territory but indicating a gradual reduction in bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows flat red bars, reflecting ongoing weakness with tentative signs of stabilization.
The GBP/USD pair rebounded towards 1.2540 after the release of US inflation data and the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy decision on Thursday. While the pair benefited from softer-than-expected US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, the BoE’s cautious stance on rate cuts and weaker UK Retail Sales data kept gains in check.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data for November revealed softer inflationary pressures. The monthly Headline PCE came in at 0.1%, down from the previous 0.2%, while the yearly measure ticked up slightly to 2.4%, just above the prior 2.3% but below the 2.5% forecast. Meanwhile, the Core PCE monthly measure fell to 0.1% from 0.3%, undershooting the 0.2% estimate, while the yearly reading remained steady at 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9%.
Following the data, the CME FedWatch Tool projects an 90% likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining its policy rate at the upcoming January 29, 2025 meeting, with a smaller 10% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.50%, down from its peak of 4.60% reached on Thursday.
In the UK, the BoE held its key borrowing rate unchanged at 4.75%, as widely anticipated. Despite accelerated inflation over the past three months, three policymakers voted for a rate cut, signaling divisions within the central bank. Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized the uncertainty surrounding future rate cuts, stating, “Due to heightened uncertainty in the economy, we can't commit to when or by how much we will cut rates in 2025.” Following the announcement, market participants priced in a 53 basis points (bps) reduction in the BoE’s interest rates for 2025.
On the economic data front, UK Retail Sales for November underwhelmed expectations. Monthly sales rose by 0.2%, below the 0.5% forecast, though recovering from a 0.7% decline in October. Year-over-year growth came in at 0.5%, falling short of the 0.8% projection and marking a significant drop from the previously reported 2%.
The GBP/USD pair recovered to 1.2540, but technical indicators remain in the negative area despite showing some improvement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen but continues to indicate bearish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains below the zero line, reflecting sustained selling pressure. Immediate support lies at 1.2500, with a break below this level potentially exposing 1.2460. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1.2560, with a sustained move above this level needed to challenge the next key barrier at 1.2600.
In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said that they are still on a path to get to 2% inflation, adding that it was 'nice' to get an inflation number that's better than expected.
"There's more uncertainty, noise."
"My projections were for a little more shallow rate-path in 2025."
"Next 12- to 18- months, rates can go down a fair amount."
"Employment is stable, want to keep it stable, to do so rates need to come down to something like neutral."
"I agree policy rate is meaningful restrictive."
"I agree policy rate is still far from neutral rate."
"We are significantly less restrictive than we were."
"Our job is to think through scenarios, though we don't know what new administration will propose."
"Uncertainty on policy is part of why I feel rate-path next year is a bit more shallow."
"Rates will come down by a judicious amount next year."
"Rate path will be determined by employment, prices."
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
In a statement released on Friday, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack noted that she dissented because the data supported holding the policy rate steady, per Reuters.
"Based on my estimate that monetary policy is not far from a neutral stance, I prefer to hold policy steady until we see further evidence that inflation is resuming its path to our 2 percent objective,” Hammack explained.
“Maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent at the December 2024 meeting was the best choice given the strength of recent economic data, accommodative financial conditions, and my forecast that inflation will remain somewhat above 2 percent over the next year amid a healthy labor market,” she said.
The US Dollar Index recover modestly from session lows following these comments and was last seen losing 0.35% on the day at 108.05.
The GBP/JPY pair is down almost 0.4% to 196.00 in Friday’s North American session. The asset faces selling pressure after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for November, which came in slower than projected due to weak demand at clothing stores.
The Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, rose by 0.2%, slower than estimates of 0.5%. Weak Retail Sales data weighed on the Pound Sterling (GBP). However, the major reason behind the British currency’s underperformance across the board on Friday is the dovish buildup for the UK interest rates outlook by the Bank of England (BoE).
The BoE left its key borrowing rates at 4.75%, as expected, in which three of nine Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members proposed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5%. However, market participants anticipated that only one policymaker would vote for a dovish interest rate decision.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks higher on Friday on the hotter-than-expected inflation report for November. As measured by the National Consumer Price Index (CPI), the headline inflation accelerated to 2.9% from 2.3% in October. The National CPI, excluding Fresh Food, rose by 2.7%, faster than estimates of 2.6% and the former release of 2.3%.
Accelerating price pressures have boosted expectations of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in upcoming policy meetings.
GBP/JPY wobbles near the upper portion of the Symmetrical Triangle formation on a daily timeframe, which suggests a sharp volatility contraction. The outlook of the pair is bullish as it trades above the 50- and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are around 194.25 and 193.00, respectively.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 60.00. A bullish momentum would trigger if it breaks above this level.
A fresh upside towards the October high of 200.00 and the June 14 high of 201.60 would appear if the asset breaks above Thursday’s high of 199.00.
On the flip side, a downside below the December 9 low of 190.60 will expose it to a December 3 low of around 188.00, followed by a September 18 low of 185.80.
Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Thu Dec 19, 2024 23:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 2.7%
Consensus: 2.6%
Previous: 2.3%
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
Inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, edged higher to 2.4% on a yearly basis in November from 2.3% in October, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Friday.
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% in the same period, matching October's reading but arriving below the market expectation of 2.9%. The core PCE Price Index rose 0.1% on a monthly basis.
The US Dollar came under bearish pressure with the immediate reaction. At the time of press, the USD Index was down 0.5% on the day at 107.90.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is flat on the session. UK Retail Sales rose a softer than expected 0.2% in November (versus +0.5% forecast), extending a run of disappointing Retail Sales data, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne reports.
“UK Retail Sales rose a softer than expected 0.2% in November (versus +0.5% forecast), extending a run of disappointing Retail Sales data. Poor weather may have had some impact on consumer activity last month but the run of soft consumption reports does suggest weaker growth momentum into the end of the year.”
“Cable is struggling to regain 1.25+ levels after losses yesterday took the pound below major trend support at 1.2520 (now resistance). Intraday price action reflects a very weak bid for the pound off the lows so far but regaining 1.2520+ into the close of the week might mitigate developing bearish pressure for a drop back to the 1.23 area.”
The Euro (EUR) trades broadly steady in the mid-1.0300s against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday even after President-elect Donald Trump threatened Europe with tariffs "all the way" unless it purchased more US energy products, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne says.
“The remark pushed the Euro (EUR) marginally lower in overnight trade but had little lasting impact on spot. Tariff risks are already priced into the EUR to some extent and Europe is expected to be able to meet Trump’s demands to buy more US product as it searches for alternatives to Russian supply.”
“Late week price action looks a bit more positive for the EUR in the short run, at least. Another rejection of sub-1.0350 levels today has put in a bullish outside range session on the 6-hour chart and sets up the EUR for a potential, short-term double bottom on a push above 1.0425 (for a rise to 1.05).”
From a wider perspective, the pair maintains its broader positive bias intact and is on track to complete a four-week rally from levels below 1.4000 in late November.
The focus today is on the US PCE Prices Index data, which is expected to confirm the Fed’s concerns about higher price pressures. Monthly inflation is expected to have remained steady at 0.2% with the year-on-year rate ticking up to 2.9% from the previous 2.8%.
In Canada, October’s Retail Sales are expected to show that consumption increased 0.7% following a 0.4% increment in September, Excluding autos, however, sales of all other products are expected to have slowed down to 0.5% from 0.9% in the previous month,
The diverging monetary policy paths of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada and the declining Crude prices (Canadian main export) are crushing the loonie, which has lost nearly 7% over the last three months.
The US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday but scaled back its easing projections to just two rate cuts in 2025, from the median of four cuts estimated in September.
The Bank of Canada, on the other hand, slashed rates by 50 basis points for the second consecutive time last week and hinted to more rate cuts to support economic growth.
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | -0.21% | -0.17% | -0.38% | -0.05% | 0.17% | 0.03% | -0.38% | |
EUR | 0.21% | 0.04% | -0.13% | 0.17% | 0.37% | 0.24% | -0.17% | |
GBP | 0.17% | -0.04% | -0.18% | 0.11% | 0.30% | 0.20% | -0.20% | |
JPY | 0.38% | 0.13% | 0.18% | 0.32% | 0.52% | 0.38% | -0.00% | |
CAD | 0.05% | -0.17% | -0.11% | -0.32% | 0.21% | 0.09% | -0.31% | |
AUD | -0.17% | -0.37% | -0.30% | -0.52% | -0.21% | -0.14% | -0.54% | |
NZD | -0.03% | -0.24% | -0.20% | -0.38% | -0.09% | 0.14% | -0.39% | |
CHF | 0.38% | 0.17% | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.31% | 0.54% | 0.39% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed in overnight trade. Factors driving the CAD lower this week have moderated and the USD remains quite significantly overvalued relative to my short-term equilibrium estimate (1.4280 today), Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne reports.
“Canadian Retail Sales are expected to advance firmly in October (+0.7% M/M) which may extend the CAD a little support, if forecasts are correct. A cabinet reshuffle may be announced in Ottawa today, reports yesterday indicated. Some reorganization is needed to relieve ministers who are pulling double or triple portfolio duty while ministers who are not running again will also be out.”
“It will also represent the PM’s attempt to restore credibility with the party. The electorate might be another matter entirely. The CAD has firmed a little from Thursday’s overnight low but the gains are minor in the grander scheme of things and hardly amount to any sort of challenge to what remains a very strong USD bull trend on the charts.”
“The short (and longer term) trend higher in the USD persists—despite the USD being overbought on the daily stochastics. Late year seasonality does open the door to a moderate CAD rally in the next 10 days or so but the USD is likely to be well-supported on minor dips (i.e. anything on a 1.42 handle).”
Markets are ending the week of a bit of a sour note. The USD has been clipped back somewhat in overnight trade as investors ponder a looming US government shutdown. Talk amongst US lawmakers about suspending or removing the debt ceiling has not worried US Treasurys unduly but investors do appear to be paying a bit more attention to the risk of (more) fiscal slippage in the US ahead. Volatility is elevated and stocks are wondering where the Santa Clause rally has gone in all of this, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne reports.
“Beyond this week’s losses of around 3% for the major markets, there has been a worrying slide in market breadth in NYSE stocks, with less than 50% trading about their 200-day MA. The JPY and the CHF are the top performers on the day, suggesting some demand for havens into the weekend. Japan’s November CPI rose in November, as expected, reaching 2.9%, from 2.3%. Japanese monetary officials expressed “deep concern” about the recent weakening in the currency. The AUD is a relative underperformer on soft iron ore prices.”
“US Personal Income and Spending data are expected to reflect healthy levels of consumption in November. Data will likely show PCE inflation edging up last month in core and headline terms—to 2.9% (from 2.8%) and 2.5% (from 2.3%) respectively. Sticky PCE data will support the outlook for the Fed to remain on hold in the near-term at least. Markets are pricing in significantly less than 50bps of Fed easing over the coming 12 months.”
“Firm US yields will support the USD in the longer run but overnight price action does suggest the risk of some short-term weakness in the dollar broadly in the short run after the DXY nudged above 108.50 in overnight trade. The Fed’s blackout is over; Daly and Williams are speaking today; expect a repeat of the cautious messaging on the policy outlook.”
In an interview with Bloomberg on Friday, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said that she thinks the policy is in a good place.
"We don't know what incoming administration will do so for me it's about the data."
"Risks to the outlook are equally balanced."
"The data on inflation are coming in showing slowed progress relative to what we wanted, it's bumpy."
"I saw this as a close call."
"Ultimately I determined the 100 bp to now was right place, recalibration phase now over."
"Now you wait watchfully before making further cuts."
"I was comfortable with median outlook."
"My projection is it will take many fewer rate cuts next year than we had thought."
"Incoming data shows consumer spending and growth are much stronger, disagreement about neutral rate."
"Level of uncertainty now is normal, not like period around pandemic."
"Firms are saying they can find workers, workers saying they can find jobs, we don't want that to break."
"We might end up with fewer cuts than 2 or more than 2 if labor market weakens notably."
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
The US Dollar (USD) retreats slightly on Friday, with the DXY Index trading at around 108.20 after eking out another fresh two-year high of 108.55 during the Asian-Pacific trading session. The move was supported by rising US Treasury yields, widening the rate-differential gap with other countries. This means more support for the US Dollar because it becomes more valuable to invest in and get a nice return on your deposit.
Friday will be the last chance for traders to move any positions they might have with volatility set to spark up. That comes because of the so-called Quadruple Witching, which takes place four times per year – each third Friday of March, June, September, and December. During Quadruple Witching, four types of financial contracts expire simultaneously: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single-stock futures. All these need to be rolled over, unwinded and settled, leading to a significant increase in trading volumes and sometimes volatility surrounding the main assets.
The US economic calendar is gearing up for the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for November. Expectations are for no significant upticks in the monthly figures. After the Fed’s warning on sticky inflation, any upside surprise could make markets doubt further over changes of interest-rate cuts in 2025.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is gearing up for the last rather normal trading day in terms of volumes. After another strong performance, it looks like the US Dollar will remain orbiting around elevated levels before heading into the New Year. The sole element that could trigger some softness would be if a Christmas rally emerges in equities and leads to a retreat in yields, softening the Greenback.
On the upside, a trend line originating from December 28 2023 looks to have foiled any further uptick moves for now after two firm rejections on Thursday and Friday. The next firm resistance comes in at 109.29, which was the peak of July 14, 2022, and has a good track record as a pivotal level. Once that level is surpassed, the 110.00 round level comes into play.
The first downside barrier comes in at 107.35, which has now turned from resistance into support. The second level that might be able to halt any selling pressure is 106.52. From there, even 105.53 could come under consideration while the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 105.23 is making its way up to that level.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
The Yen is picking up from five-month lows on Friday, supported by a somewhat softer US Dollar and hot Japanese inflation figures. The Dollar has pulled back from levels right below 158.00 and is testing support at the previous 56.60 resistance area.
Japanese data released on Thursday showed that inflation accelerated to a 2.9% yearly rate in November from 2.3% in October. Likewise, the core inflation increased 2.7% year-on-year, beating expectations of a 2.6% increment. These figures keep hopes of a January hike alive and provide some support to an ailing Yen.
The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged on Thursday and conditioned a further rate hike to the evolution of next spring’s wage negotiations. Investors, who were expecting clearer signs of a January hike, were disappointed and the Yen tumbled against its main rivals.
One day earlier, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates but signalled a slower easing path for next year. The hawkish stance sent the US Dollar and US Treasury yields surging.
The USD/JPY is correcting lower, after rallying about 2.6% earlier this week, reaching overbought levels on most timeframes.
The broader trend, however, remains positive, with bears contained above the previous top, at 156.60 and the next support level at 155.85 ahead of 154.45. Resistances are 158.00 and 158.80.
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | -0.24% | -0.02% | -0.39% | -0.03% | 0.22% | 0.08% | -0.48% | |
EUR | 0.24% | 0.22% | -0.13% | 0.22% | 0.47% | 0.32% | -0.24% | |
GBP | 0.02% | -0.22% | -0.35% | 0.00% | 0.22% | 0.10% | -0.45% | |
JPY | 0.39% | 0.13% | 0.35% | 0.36% | 0.61% | 0.45% | -0.08% | |
CAD | 0.03% | -0.22% | 0.00% | -0.36% | 0.25% | 0.11% | -0.44% | |
AUD | -0.22% | -0.47% | -0.22% | -0.61% | -0.25% | -0.16% | -0.70% | |
NZD | -0.08% | -0.32% | -0.10% | -0.45% | -0.11% | 0.16% | -0.54% | |
CHF | 0.48% | 0.24% | 0.45% | 0.08% | 0.44% | 0.70% | 0.54% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Crude Oil prices dips lower for the fifth consecutive day in a row on Friday. The mood soured overnight again as investors got concerned about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tilt, which could quickly kill off any economic boosts from the Trump administration. Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump warned Europe that if the region does not boost its Gas and Oil buying from the US to make good on its trade deficit with the country, it will face tariffs instead.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) – which measures the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies – hit a fresh two-year high during the Asian trading session on Friday. The hawkish tilt from the Fed is pushing US Treasury rates higher, driving the wedge between US rates and other countries even bigger in favor of a more expensive US Dollar. Should the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data come in higher than anticipated on Friday, the last two interest rate cut projections for 2025 could get priced out, resulting in an even higher US Dollar.
At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $68.77 and Brent Crude at $71.98.
Crude Oil prices have attempted and failed to reach any upside above the $70.00 level. The risk now could turn into a squeeze, where sellers reduce their hedges for higher Oil prices and might set off a nasty correction in the Oil market. With a lot of Oil contracts set to expire under the so-called Quadruple Witching (each third Friday of March, June, September, and December, four types of financial contracts expire simultaneously: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures), excess volatility could see Oil tank quickly to $67 in search of support.
Looking up, $71.46 (February 5 low) and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.82 act as firm resistance levels. If Oil traders can plow through those levels, the next pivotal level will be $75.27 (January 12 high). However, watch out for quick profit-taking as the year-end quickly approaches.
On the downside, the 55-day SMA at $69.90 has been chopped up too many times this week and has lost relevance for now. That means that $67.12 – a level that held the price in May and June 2023 and during the last quarter of 2024 – is still the first solid support nearby. In case that breaks, the 2024 year-to-date low emerges at $64.75, followed by $64.38, the low from 2023.
US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades with minor gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, regaining some of the ground lost following a ”hawkish cut” by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday.
The Peso bounced up from two-week lows on Thursday after the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) confirmed investors’ expectations and cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) to close the year at 10%.
The central bank’s statement warns about the negative impact of higher tariffs in the US and observes that the labour market loosened. Inflation has cooled and is expected to continue that way, which will allow the bank to ease its monetary policy further next year.
Today, the focus is on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices Index, which is expected to confirm that inflation remains sticky at levels above the Fed’s 2% rate. An upside surprise today would cast further doubt on the Fed’s easing cycle and provide additional support for the US Dollar.
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | -0.13% | 0.04% | -0.38% | -0.03% | 0.25% | 0.12% | -0.33% | |
EUR | 0.13% | 0.17% | -0.20% | 0.13% | 0.40% | 0.25% | -0.20% | |
GBP | -0.04% | -0.17% | -0.37% | -0.07% | 0.20% | 0.08% | -0.37% | |
JPY | 0.38% | 0.20% | 0.37% | 0.33% | 0.60% | 0.46% | 0.03% | |
CAD | 0.03% | -0.13% | 0.07% | -0.33% | 0.27% | 0.15% | -0.30% | |
AUD | -0.25% | -0.40% | -0.20% | -0.60% | -0.27% | -0.14% | -0.57% | |
NZD | -0.12% | -0.25% | -0.08% | -0.46% | -0.15% | 0.14% | -0.44% | |
CHF | 0.33% | 0.20% | 0.37% | -0.03% | 0.30% | 0.57% | 0.44% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The USD/MXN recovery has been capped at 20.50, and the pair pulled back to test support at the top of the previous trading channel at the 20.25-20.30 area.
Technical indicators show that the bullish momentum is losing steam, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50. On the downside, below the mentioned 20.25, the next target is the key 20.00 level (November 19 and December 16 lows). Resistances are at Thursday’s high of 20.50, ahead of the November 6 and 26 highs at 20.80.
The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%.
The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor.
Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.
The AUD/USD pair trades inside Thursday’s trading range slightly above the two-year low of 0.6200 near 0.6230. The Aussie pair exhibits volatility contraction, with investors focusing on the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks lower after posting a fresh two-year high at 108.50.
Economists estimate the annual US core PCE inflation, a Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, to have accelerated to 2.9% from 2.8% in October. Month-on-month, the underlying inflation is estimated to have grown by 0.2%, slower than the former release of 0.3%.
The inflation data will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely interest rate action in the January meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are confident that the central bank will leave interest rates at their current levels of 4.25%-4.50%.
Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) will be influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes for the monetary policy meeting that took place on December 10, which will be released on Tuesday. The RBA left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35%, a level the central bank has been maintaining since November 2023.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock didn’t guide a specific interest rate cut path and committed to be data-dependent but was confident that wages and demand are slowing.
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Headline SMEI recovered 0.2pts to 50.6 in December; average reading rebounded to above-50 level in Q4. While services activity improved, performance and expectations sub-indices stayed below 50. Manufacturing SMEs continued to outperform on a solid m/m increase in sales and new orders. Credit conditions remained supportive to SMEs; CNY depreciation expectations increased further, Standard Chartered’s Economist Hunter Chan notes.
“Our proprietary Small and Medium Enterprise Confidence Index (SMEI; Bloomberg: SCCNSMEI <Index>) picked up to 50.6 in December from 50.4 in November. Both the performance and expectations sub-indices rebounded to expansionary territory as SMEs’ manufacturing activity accelerated and services sentiment improved. On average, the headline SMEI edged up 0.7pts from Q3 to 50.6 as the credit environment eased further and the decline in SME business activity ceased.”
“The performance sub-index for manufacturing SMEs rose to an eight-month high in December as sales, production and new orders remained resilient. The sales sub-index for cross-border trading SMEs edged up to its highest reading since April, indicating resilient external demand. We expect the official manufacturing PMI to stay in expansionary territory at 50.2 for a third straight month in December.”
“Non-manufacturing SMEs’ activity remained soft. While both the performance and expectations sub-indices picked up on improved real estate and construction activity, they stayed in contractionary territory. SMEs in accommodation and catering, retail sales and wholesale, and IT and finance reported a m/m decline in activity. We expect the official non-manufacturing PMI to ease 0.1pts to 49.9 in December.”
USD/SGD traded a touch softer this morning, easing slightly away from its near-2024 high. Pair was last at 1.36 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Christopher Wong notes.
“Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI shows signs of turning lower from overbought conditions. Technically, there is still signs of pullback move lower in the near term, but dips may still find support.”
“Support at 1.3510, 1.3470 (21 DMA). Resistance at 1.3620, 1.3670 levels S$NEER was last at 0.93% above model-implied mid.”
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading with a moderate positive tone on Friday following the sharp sell-off earlier this week. However, upside attempts remain limited as investors brace for the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
On Thursday, an upward revision to the third quarter’s US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the lower-than-expected Jobless claims have endorsed the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance for 2025.
This keeps the US Dollar index pinned near two-year highs ahead of the release of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Investors are waiting to see whether the US central bank’s concerns about higher inflation are justified. A strong reading would cast further doubts on the Fed’s easing cycle and increase negative pressure on Gold.
Gold is going through a corrective recovery from heavily oversold levels. The broader trend, however, remains bearish. The pair is struggling to find acceptance above $2,600 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the 4-hour chart remains flat at levels below the 50 threshold, highlighting the bearish momentum.
Immediate resistance is at the $2,605 intra-day high, with the key resistance area to challenge the bearish trend at the $2,625-$2,630 area (November 28, December 2 lows). On the downside, supports are at Wednesday’s low at around $2,580, ahead of November’s trough at $2,540.
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) fell on surprise BoE vote split even as BoE keeps policy rate on hold at 4.75%. MPC voted 6-3 to keep rates on hold. Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden, Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor all voted to cut by 25bp. The GBP/USD was last seen at 1.2506. OCBC’s FX analysts Christopher Wong notes.
“Markets were only expecting Dhingra to vote for a cut. BoE staff also downgraded their economic forecast for 4Q 2024, now predicting no growth, compared with the 0.3% expansion projected in its Nov report. Taken together, dovish split and downgrade in growth assessment was a negative for GBP. Accompanying policy saw little changes from previous, while still noting that policy would need to be ‘restrictive for sufficiently long.’”
“On inflation, MPC mentioned continued progress in disinflation but warned that ‘remaining domestic inflationary pressures are resolving more slowly.’ In written comments to reporters, Governor Bailey said that ‘we think a gradual approach to rate cuts remains right, but with the heightened uncertainty in the economy we can't commit to when or by how much we will cut rates in the coming year’.
“GBP fell amid dovish hold outcome and stronger USD. Daily momentum turned bearish while RSI fell. Risks are skewed to the downside. Support at 1.2450, 1.2410 levels. Break puts 1.23 (2024 low) in focus. Resistance at 1.2570 (76.4% fibo retracement of 2024 low to high), 1.2660 levels (21 DMA). Today brings retail sales data.”
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range around $29.00 in Friday’s European trading session. The white metal consolidates as investors await the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.
Economists expect the US annual core PCE inflation data to have accelerated to 2.9% from 2.8% in October. On month, the underlying inflation data is estimated to have grown steadily by 0.2%. Signs of mild slowdown in price pressures are unlikely to impact market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause the policy-easing spell in the policy meeting in January 2025. However, a sharp deceleration could weigh on them. On the contrary, a mild or sharp acceleration in price pressures would strengthen them.
In the policy meeting on Wednesday, the Fed reduced its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% but signaled fewer interest rate cuts for 2025. The Fed dot plot showed that officials collectively see Federal Fund rates heading to 3.9% by 2025 against 3.4% projected in September.
Ahead of the US PCE inflation data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges lower after posting a fresh two-year high at 108.50. 10-year US Treasury yields tick lower to 4.56% from a fresh six-month high of 4.60%. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets increase the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Silver price slides below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $29.35. The white metal weakens after a breakdown of the upward-sloping trendline around $30.20, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) drops inside the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 range, guiding a downside momentum ahead.
Looking down, the September low of $27.75 would as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the 50-day EMA around $30.90 would be the barrier.
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
USD/JPY rose sharply after BoJ kept policy rate on hold yesterday. USD/JPY’s rise can also be attributed to the rise in UST yields as Fed guided for slower pace of rate cuts. The pair was last seen at 156.71. Back to BoJ, Governor Ueda’s remarks seem more cautious and appear to be ‘buying time’. He said that the ‘lack of wage info’ was one reason why policymakers held rates. He did say that ‘certain degree of info expected on wages by next meeting’, OCBC’s FX analysts Christopher Wong notes.
BoJ seems to be buying time
“He also touched on wanting to see more wage hike sustainability. He also mentioned that it will take a long time before the full picture is clear for both the spring wage negotiations and the Trump administration’s policies. That being said, he did warn that the BoJ must consider the risk of falling behind the curve carefully as real interest rates remain at very low levels. Chance of hike at the next MPC (24 Jan) is probably still live. But for now, the reluctance of BOJ and the guidance for Fed pause suggests that USD/JPY may continue to face intermittent upward pressure.”
“This morning, in response to the sharp 300pips fall in JPY against USD, Finance Minister Kato said authorities will take appropriate action if there are excessive moves in currency markets. Currency Chief Mimura also spoke about taking appropriate response if excessive FX moves. Verbal intervention in the face of strong USD trend and policy inaction can only be at best in slowing JPY’s bout of depreciation pressure. What can stop JPY from further weakening in the near term would be a less dovish BoJ, some guidance in expectations for BoJ hike in due course and/or a softer USD.”
“Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI show signs of turning from near overbought conditions. Resistance at 158, 158.90 levels. Support at 156.67 (76.4% fibo retracement of Jul high to Sep low), 154.50/155 levels.”
In its latest cereals market situation report, the European Commission estimated that the bloc’s grain production could fall to 255.8mt for the 2024/25 season, compared to its previous projections of 256.9mt. This is largely driven by a decrease in soft wheat production estimates, which fell from 112.3mt from November projections to 111.9mt for the period mentioned above. This is due to a reduction in the harvest area to 20.2m hectares from 20.3m hectares. Similarly, corn production estimates were revised down slightly to 59.5mt from its previous projections of 59.6mt, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
“Meanwhile, in its weekly report, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised Argentina’s corn planting estimates to 65.8% complete for the 2024/25 season, up from 55.6% estimated earlier. Sufficient rain has been helpful for the planting season so far. Meanwhile, the exchange reported that the corn planting area remained unchanged at 6.3m ha for the above-mentioned period. Similarly, soybean planting estimates were raised to 76.6% for the 2024/25 season from its previous estimates of 64.7%. The exchange further added that the forecast for more showers could continue to improve the country’s wheat crop condition as well.”
“US weekly net export sales for the week ending 12 December show strong demand for US grains over the week. US corn shipments surged to 1,177kt, higher than the 946.9kt a week ago and 1,014kt for the same period last year. This was also higher than the average market expectations of 1,013kt. Similarly, wheat shipments rose to 458kt, higher than the 290.2kt reported in the previous week and 326kt a year ago. The market was expecting a number closer to 329kt. Meanwhile, soybean shipments stood at 1,424.2kt, higher than the 1,173.8kt reported a week ago but lower than the 2,133.4kt reported a year ago. The average market expectations stood at 1,256kt.”
US Dollar (USD) continues to trade near its 2-year highs. Dollar Index (DXY) was last seen at 108.23, OCBC’s FX analysts Christopher Wong notes.
“Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI rose into overbought conditions. Resistance at 108.50, 109 levels. Support at 107.20, 106.70 (21 DMA). Day ahead watch US data – core PCE, personal income/spending and Uni of Michigan sentiment. Market liquidity is increasingly thinner and fluid pricing can exacerbate FX moves. A softer than expected print may provide a breather for risk proxies and tame USD bulls.”
“But we caution that hotter print could lead to shallower dipsin the USD pullback and USD bulls may extend its run higher. To recap, FOMC guided for a slower pace of rate cut for 2025 and even 2026 (2 cuts each year). The quantum of rate cuts has also been reduced for the cycle. Although markets have earlier anticipated for 2 cuts, the hawkish outcome saw further hawkish re-pricing.”
“Markets are now not fully pricing another cut until July or Sep with only 38bp now priced for whole of 2025. As of writing, markets are only fully pricing in a 25bp cut at June 2025 FOMC. Market pricing can be fluid. If core PCE data (today) comes in softer than expected or NFP (10 Jan) comes in with slower job, then rate cut expectations can adjust again and the USD can weaken from current highs.”
Indonesia is considering implementing deep cuts to the nickel mining quota primarily to support the falling prices of the battery metal, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Nickel prices are under pressure
“The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is said to be planning to restrict the amount of nickel ore allowed to be mined to 150mt in 2025, sharply down from 272mt this year. However, the discussions about the size of the potential reduction are still ongoing with the government. Rising supply from Indonesia and slower-than-expected demand growth have been weighing on nickel prices.”
“However, the announcement failed to offer any immediate support to LME nickel with prices falling to their lowest since November 2020 yesterday, as market participants continue to focus on the broader weakness in risk assets.”
“In zinc, market reports suggest that Toho Zinc Co. located in Japan will shut down its unprofitable zinc smelting business by the year-end, as ore-processing fees continue to hover near multi-year lows. The Japanese company is also withdrawing from mining investments following a “significant loss” in the mineral resources division.”
Most Asian FX are trading near their respective lows against the US Dollar (USD). USD/KRW is near 1450, USD/CNH back above 7.30, USD/JPY is back above 157, USD/INR at record highs of above-85 levels, while most Asean FX, including PHP, IDR, TWD are trading 4-5% weaker (on YTD terms), OCBC’s FX analysts Christopher Wong notes.
“BI said it will guard the IDR boldly to build market confidence, BSP said that policymakers are watching the PHP drop closely and has stepped up intervention in the FX market. Japan’s Finance Minister Kato and Currency chief Mimura said authorities will take appropriate action if there are excessive moves in currency markets.”
“In China, policymakers continue to set the fix steady at under 7.20 (last set at 7.1901 vs. 7.1911 yesterday despite USD’s rise). Fixing pattern suggests that PBoC is doing whatever it takes to not only restrain the RMB from overweakening but also to hold it steady in the interim. South Korea said it will ease the cap on banks’ foreign exchange forward positions by 50% to boost inflows and address demand and supply imbalances in the local currency market.”
“It can be challenging for policymakers to go against a strong USD trend. Intervention in such an environment can only slow the pace of currency depreciation. Despite that, central banks may still have to use a mix of verbal, policy and actual intervention tools to slow the pace of currency depreciation.”
EUR/USD slightly recovers but trades cautiously near the yearly lows around 1.0350 in Friday’s European session. The major currency pair has been exposed to more downside ahead as the US Dollar (USD) has strengthened. However, the USD has given up intraday gains but remains broadly firm on multiple tailwinds, such as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish policy outlook and robust United States (US) economic growth.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, falls back to near 108.10 after posting a fresh two-year high above 108.50 earlier in the day.
The outlook for the Greenback has firmed as the Fed signaled fewer interest rate cuts for 2025 amid robust growth rate after reducing its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to the 4.25%-4.50% range in its policy meeting on Wednesday. In the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that economic strength gives the central bank the ability to approach rate cuts cautiously.
Meanwhile, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate higher to 3.1%. The agency reported previously that the economy expanded by 2.8%.
In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the November US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. Economists estimate that the annual US core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, to have accelerated to 2.9% from 2.8% in October, with monthly figures growing by 0.2% compared to 0.3% in the previous month.
EUR/USD holds the key support of 1.0340 in Friday’s European session. However, the outlook of the major currency pair remains strongly bearish as all short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are declining.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, indicating that a fresh downside momentum has been triggered.
Looking down, the pair could decline to near the round-level support of 1.0200 after breaking below the two-year low of 1.0330. Conversely, the 20-day EMA near 1.0500 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $28.96 per troy ounce, down 0.52% from the $29.11 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have increased by 21.70% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
---|---|
Troy Ounce | 28.96 |
1 Gram | 0.93 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 89.97 on Friday, up from 89.21 on Thursday.
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Crude oil prices edged lower with NYMEX WTI closing below $70/bbl while ICE Brent settled below $73/bbl yesterday. The oil market witnessed a second straight session of decline as the strengthening dollar weighs on the complex, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
“The latest data from Insights Global shows that refined product inventories in the ARA region increased by just 16kt over the week to 6.3mt. The additions in gasoil and gasoline stocks were balanced by the declines reported in other oil products stocks. Gasoil stocks in the ARA region increased by 57kt week-on-week to 2.2mt for the week ending 19 December.”
“In Singapore, Enterprise Singapore data shows that total oil product stocks increased by 9.7m barrels for a seventh straight week to 54.4m barrels as of 18 December, the highest since August 2020. Residue stocks increased by 11.05m barrels whilst light and middle distillate stocks decreased by 556k barrels and 813k barrels, respectively.”
“Meanwhile, US natural gas prices moved higher for a fourth consecutive session as weekly inventory numbers reported outflows, whilst expectations of a cold start to January raised hopes for increased consumption of the heating fuel. The weekly data shows that US gas storage decreased by 125Bcf last week, slightly lower than the 127Bcf increase the market was expecting.”
The AUD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 0.6215 area on Friday and turns positive for the second successive day on Friday, though it lacks bullish conviction. Spot prices currently trade around the mid-0.6200s and remain close to the lowest level since October 2022 touched on Thursday.
A modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields keeps a lid on the recent US Dollar (USD) rally to a two-year peak, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor offering some support to the AUD/USD pair. That said, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish signal that it would slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025 should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and the USD. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-off mood could underpin the safe-haven buck and cap further gains for the risk-sensitive Aussie.
Investors remain concerned about persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East. Apart from this, worries about US President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs, along with the threat of a partial US government shutdown at the end of the day on Friday, take its toll on the global risk sentiment. Furthermore, China's economic woes and the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) dovish shift should contribute to keeping a lid on the AUD/USD pair.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that spot prices have formed a near-term bottom and positioning for any meaningful recovery. Next on tap is the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index later during the early North American session. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge will influence the USD price dynamics and produce short-term opportunities around the AUD/USD pair heading into the weekend.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Price changes may cause consumers to switch from buying one good to another and the PCE Deflator can account for such substitutions. This makes it the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Dec 20, 2024 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 2.5%
Previous: 2.3%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
The USD/JPY pair retreats following an intraday uptick to the 158.00 neighborhood, or a five-month peak and continues losing ground through the early European session on Friday. As investors look past the Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy update on Thursday, strong inflation data from Japan, along with the risk-off mood, benefits the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and exerts some pressure on the currency pair. The BoJ decided to keep the short-term rate target unchanged at the end of the December policy meeting and offered few clues on how soon it could push up borrowing costs. That said, a government report showed that Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose more than expected in November and keeps the door open for a potential rate hike in January or March.
In fact, the Japan Statistics Bureau reported that the National CPI climbed 2.9% YoY in November compared to the 2.3% previous reading. Additional details revealed that the National CPI ex Fresh food arrived at 2.7% YoY versus 2.3% in October and was above the 2.6% market expectations. Moreover, CPI ex Fresh Food, Energy rose 2.7% YoY in November versus the 2.3% increase recorded in the previous month. This points to a sustained uptick in inflation and might force the BoJ to hike interest rates again early in 2025, which, in turn, provides some respite to the JPY bulls. Apart from this, the global flight to safety, amid the looming US government shutdown, drives some haven flows towards the JPY and drags the USD/JPY pair further below the 157.00 mark on the last day of the week.
The US House of Representatives failed to pass A spending bill to fund the government on Thursday, raising the risk of a partial shutdown at the end of the day on Friday. This comes on top of persistent geopolitical risks and concerns about US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans, which, in turn, tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets and boosts demand for traditional safe-haven assets. The flight to safety triggers a modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields, from a multi-month peak set on Thursday, and keeps a lid on the post-FOMC US Dollar (USD) rally to a two-year peak. This turns out to be another factor that contributes to the offered tone surrounding the USD/JPY pair. That said, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook should limit losses for the USD and the major.
Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of Friday's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, due later during the early North American session. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge should provide a fresh impetus to the USD and drive the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register gains for the third successive week. Moreover, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favor of bullish traders and supports prospects for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend from the 148.65 region, or the monthly low touched on December 3.
From a technical perspective, the intraday pullback could be attributed to some profit-taking amid a slightly overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart. That said, the overnight strong move up beyond the previous multi-month top, around the 156.75 area, favors bullish traders. Hence, a strong follow-through selling is needed before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has topped out in the near term and positioning for deeper losses.
In the meantime, any subsequent slide is likely to attract some buying and remain limited near the 156.00 mark. Some follow-through selling, however, might expose the next relevant support near the 155.50 horizontal zone, below which the USD/JPY pair could drop to the 155.00 psychological mark. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders.
On the flip side, the 157.45-157.50 area now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 158.00 mark. A sustained strength beyond has the potential to lift the USD/JPY pair to the 158.45 hurdle en route to the 159.00 round figure. The momentum could extend further towards the 159.60-159.65 region, above which spot prices might aim to conquer the 160.00 psychological mark and climb further to the 160.20 hurdle, which coincides with the top end of a multi-month-old ascending channel.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) attempts to recover against its major peers on Friday after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for November, which rose less than anticipated. The Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, rose by 0.2% in the month, slower than estimates of 0.5% but recovering from a 0.7% decline in October.
Retail Sales grew at a moderate pace of 0.5% year over year, against expectations of 0.8% and the former release of 2%, which was downwardly revised from 2.4%. The report showed that clothing demand remained weak, while sales were higher at other non-food stores.
The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the impact of the Black Friday sale was not taken into account in the November data as it commenced on November 29. The agency covered data for four weeks, from October 27 to November 23.
On a broader note, the outlook of the British currency is uncertain as the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting on Thursday showed a dovish buildup on the policy outlook. The BoE left its key borrowing rates unchanged at 4.75%, as expected, as UK inflation has accelerated in the last three months. Still, three policymakers proposed cutting interest rates against one as anticipated by market participants.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey refrained from committing a pre-defined rate cut path. “Due to heightened uncertainty in the economy, we can't commit to when or by how much we will cut rates in 2025,” he said.
Meanwhile, traders price in a 53 basis points (bps) interest rate reduction by the BoE in 2025 after the policy announcement.
The Pound Sterling weakens against the US Dollar on a decisive break below the upward-sloping trendline around 1.2600, which is plotted from the October 2023 low of 1.2035.
A death cross, represented by the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near 1.2790, suggests a strong bearish trend in the long run.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides below 40.00, suggesting that a fresh downside momentum has been triggered.
Looking down, the pair is expected to find a cushion near the April 22 low around 1.2300. On the upside, the December 17 high at 1.2730 will act as key resistance.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
AUD/JPY retraces its recent gains, trading around 97.90 during the European session on Friday. This downside of the AUD/JPY cross is attributed to the improved Japanese Yen (JPY) following the stronger-than-expected inflation data.
Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached a three-month high of 2.9% year-over-year in November, up from 2.3% in October. Additionally, the annual core inflation rate rose to 2.7%, exceeding market expectations of 2.6%. These stronger-than-expected inflation figures reinforce a hawkish outlook for the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy.
However, the BoJ maintained its policy rate for the third consecutive meeting, keeping the short-term rate target within the range of 0.15%-0.25% after its two-day monetary policy review, in line with market expectations.
The AUD/JPY cross depreciates amid a softer Australian Dollar (AUD) amid the rising likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may begin cutting its 4.35% cash rate as early as February, amid mounting signs of an economic slowdown. Attention now shifts to the release of the RBA's latest meeting minutes due next week.
Australia's Private Sector Credit grew by 0.5% month-over-month in November, aligning with expectations, which marked the fastest monthly growth in four months. On an annual basis, Private Sector Credit rose by 6.2% in November, the highest growth rate since May 2023, up slightly from 6.1% in October.
In China, Australia’s largest export market, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) decided during its fourth quarterly meeting to maintain the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) at 3.10% and 3.60%, respectively. Prolonged elevated borrowing costs continue to hinder economic activity in China, the world’s leading manufacturing hub, which in turn exerts downward pressure on the AUD.
Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Thu Dec 19, 2024 23:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 2.9%
Consensus: -
Previous: 2.3%
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
Here is what you need to know on Friday, December 20:
After rising sharply on Wednesday, the US Dollar (USD) Index preserved its bullish momentum on Thursday and touched its highest level in over two years early Friday before entering a consolidation phase. The US economic calendar will feature Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for November and the European Commission will publish preliminary Consumer Confidence Index for December later in the day.
The Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish twist in the Summary of Economic Projections fuelled a rally in the US Treasury bond yields and boosted the USD in the second half of the week. Additionally, upbeat macroeconomic data releases from the US further supported the currency during the American trading hours on Thursday. Early Friday, investors adopt a cautious stance on growing concerns over a US government shutdown ahead of the holidays. At the time of press, US stock index futures were last seen losing between 0.1% and 0.4%.
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | 1.18% | 0.96% | 2.15% | 1.11% | 2.00% | 2.34% | 0.45% | |
EUR | -1.18% | -0.17% | 1.08% | -0.01% | 0.98% | 1.22% | -0.66% | |
GBP | -0.96% | 0.17% | 1.12% | 0.16% | 1.16% | 1.37% | -0.49% | |
JPY | -2.15% | -1.08% | -1.12% | -1.03% | -0.13% | 0.20% | -1.58% | |
CAD | -1.11% | 0.00% | -0.16% | 1.03% | 0.94% | 1.21% | -0.65% | |
AUD | -2.00% | -0.98% | -1.16% | 0.13% | -0.94% | 0.23% | -1.63% | |
NZD | -2.34% | -1.22% | -1.37% | -0.20% | -1.21% | -0.23% | -1.86% | |
CHF | -0.45% | 0.66% | 0.49% | 1.58% | 0.65% | 1.63% | 1.86% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Bank of England (BoE) announced on Thursday that it maintained the bank rate at 4.75% after the December meeting. Three members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), however, unexpectedly voted in favor of a rate cut, causing Pound Sterling to come under selling pressure. After losing more than 0.5%, GBP/USD extended its slide in the Asian session on Friday and touched its lowest level since May below 1.2480. The pair stages a technical correction and trades at around 1.2500 early Friday. Meanwhile, the data from the UK showed that Retail Sales rose by 0.2% on a monthly basis in November, falling short of analysts' estimate for an increase of 0.5%.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced on Friday that it left one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged at 3.10% and 3.60%, respectively. AUD/USD showed no reaction to this headline and was last seen trading in a tight range below 0.6250.
USD/JPY gathered bullish momentum and gained more than 1.5% on Thursday after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) refrained from committing to additional policy tightening. The pair touched a multi-month high near 158.00 in the Asian session but retreated to the 157.00 area by the European morning. Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday that he is concerned about the recent foreign exchange move, including those driven by speculation. Kato added that he will ake appropriate action against excessive moves.
After suffering large losses on Wednesday, EUR/USD found a foothold on Thursday and ended the day virtually unchanged. The pair clings to small daily gains early Friday but continues to trade below 1.0400.
Gold holds steady at around $2,600 following Wednesday's drop. The risk-averse market atmosphere helps XAU/USD hold its ground despite the broad-based USD strength.
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
NZD/USD recovers daily losses to halt its losing streak, trading around 0.5640 during the early European hours on Friday. The downside risks for the pair seem possible due to the improved US Dollar (USD). This could be attributed to the increased risk aversion following the hawkish 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its December policy meeting. Traders will likely observe the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, scheduled to be released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday.
Moreover, the US Dollar strengthened after the release of better-than-expected key economic data from the United States (US). US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized reported a 3.1% growth rate in the third quarter, surpassing both market expectations and the previous reading of 2.8%. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 220,000 for the week ending December 13, down from 242,000 in the prior week and below the market forecast of 230,000.
In New Zealand, the trade deficit narrowed in November, driven by a rise in exports and a drop in imports. The country recorded a trade deficit of NZD 437 million in November, a significant improvement from the NZD 1,658 million deficit in October. Meanwhile, exports grew by 9.1% year-on-year to NZD 6.48 billion, while imports decreased by 3.9% to NZD 6.92 billion.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) encountered difficulties after weaker-than-expected GDP data for Q3, which heightened expectations for more aggressive monetary policy easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Markets have fully priced in a significant 50 bps rate cut at the central bank’s February meeting.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
The EUR/GBP cross drifts higher to near 0.8300 during the early European session on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens after the downbeat UK Retail Sales data.
Data released by the Office for National Statistics on Friday showed that UK Retail Sales rose 0.2% MoM in November versus a 0.7% decline in October. This figure came in below the market consensus of a 0.5% increase. On an annual basis, Retail Sales climbed 0.5% in November, compared to a rise of 2.0% (revised from 2.4%) prior, missing the estimation of 0.8%. The GBP attracts some sellers in an immediate reaction to the downbeat UK Retail Sales and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/GBP cross.
On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to continue to lower its key interest rate next year. The ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said on Thursday that the central bank should keep lowering borrowing costs at the current pace as inflation is increasingly under control. ECB President Christine Lagarde said ECB policymakers would keep cutting interest rates if forthcoming inflation data aligns with anticipations.
The ECB will hold its first rate-setting meeting of 2025 on January 30. Investors envisage a slightly more aggressive path of the ECB easing cycle next year, which might weigh on the Euro against the GBP.
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
USD/CAD retraces its recent losses and edges higher toward 1.4467, the highest level not seen since March 2020, which was recorded in the previous session. The pair trades near 1.4410 during the Asian hours on Friday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six other major currencies, maintains its position near 25-month high at 108.49, marked on Thursday, following key economic data from the United States (US).
US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized reported a 3.1% growth rate in the third quarter, surpassing both market expectations and the previous reading of 2.8%. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 220,000 for the week ending December 13, down from 242,000 in the prior week and below the market forecast of 230,000.
The US Dollar strengthened the Fed's emphasis on exercising caution regarding additional rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained that the central bank would be wary of further cuts, as inflation is expected to remain persistently above the 2% target. The Fed's monetary policy statement indicated that economic activity remained robust, while noting that labor market conditions had softened.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces headwinds as expectations grow for further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in 2025, although the era of large, aggressive reductions may have passed. Additionally, declining crude Oil prices are pressuring the commodity-linked CAD, given that Canada is the largest Oil exporter to the United States.
Traders will closely watch Canadian October Retail Sales data on Friday. Meanwhile, in the United States, attention will focus on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six other major currencies, maintains its position near 108.50, the highest level not seen since November 2022. This follows the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish 25 basis point (bps) rate cut on Wednesday, which lowered its benchmark lending rate to a two-year low of 4.25%-4.50%.
The US Dollar strengthened as US Treasury bond yields surged by more than 2.50% on Wednesday, following the Fed's emphasis on exercising caution regarding additional rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained that the central bank would be wary of further cuts, as inflation is expected to remain persistently above the 2% target. As of writing, the 2-year and 10-year yields stand at 4.30% and 4.56%, respectively.
The Fed's monetary policy statement indicated that economic activity remained robust while noting that labor market conditions had softened. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or "dot-plot," forecasted only two rate cuts in 2025, a reduction from the four cuts projected in September.
In the United States (US), data showed on Thursday that the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized reported a 3.1% growth rate in the third quarter, surpassing both market expectations and the previous reading of 2.8%. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 220,000 for the week ending December 13, down from 242,000 in the prior week and below the market forecast of 230,000.
Traders will likely observe key economic figures from the United States including Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data, scheduled to be released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday.
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Dec 20, 2024 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 0.2%
Previous: 0.3%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.
The USD/CHF pair holds positive ground around 0.8980 during the early European session on Friday. A hawkish rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and stronger US economic data boost the Greenback against the Swiss Franc (CHF). The attention will shift to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for November, which is due later on Friday.
The US central bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) as widely expected. Nonetheless, the Fed signaled a more hawkish stance on its easing cycle next year. The Fed's dot plot, a chart that projects the future path of interest rates, indicated a half-percentage point rate cut in 2025, compared with a full percentage cut projected in September. According to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or “dot plot”," the Fed intends to reduce the number of interest rate cuts next year from four to just two quarter-percent cuts.
The upbeat US economic data released on Thursday has contributed to the USD’s upside. The third estimate reading released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a 3.1% annualized rate in the third quarter (GDP), compared to a previous projection of 2.8%. Additionally, the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 220K in the week ending December 14, compared to the previous week's print of 242K, and came in below the market consensus of 230,000.
On the Swiss front, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to deliver a further interest rate cut in March 2025 to 0.25% following last week’s 50 bps reduction in the key interest rate. "The SNB softened its forward guidance for possible further cuts. But with the latest move, the SNB likely cemented the market expectations for lower rates," noted Alexander Koch, head of macro and fixed income research at Raiffeisen.
Meanwhile, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could boost the safe haven flows, benefiting the CHF. Israel's military carried out devastating attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen early Thursday, just hours after the Iran-backed terrorist group's latest attack on Israel. Israel's military claimed that the strikes were in retaliation for Houthi missile and drone attacks on Israel over the past year, most of which were intercepted, per CNN.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
The EUR/USD pair continues with its struggle to attract any meaningful buyers and oscillates in a range around the 1.0360 area during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices remain close to a near-one-month low touched on Thursday and seem poised to register its lowest weekly close since November 2022.
Moreover, the shared currency might continue with its relative underperformance on the back of the divergent European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In fact, the ECB cut interest rates for the fourth time this year last Thursday and left the door open to further easing in 2025. In contrast, the Fed signaled earlier this week that it would slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance or the EUR/USD pair is to the downside.
Meanwhile, the Fed's hawkish shift comes on top of persistent geopolitical risks and concerns about US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans. This, along with the threat of a US government shutdown ahead of the Friday night deadline, continues to weigh on investors' sentiment and assists the US Dollar (USD) to preserve the post-FOMC strong gains to a two-year high. This further validates the negative outlook for the EUR/USD pair and supports prospects for further losses.
The USD bulls, however, take a brief pause for a breather and now look to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, due for release later during the North American session. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge should provide a fresh impetus to the USD and the EUR/USD pair. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favor of the USD bulls, suggesting that any immediate negative reaction to softer US data is more likely to be short-lived.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Price changes may cause consumers to switch from buying one good to another and the PCE Deflator can account for such substitutions. This makes it the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Dec 20, 2024 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 2.5%
Previous: 2.3%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
GBP/USD continues to lose ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.2490 during the Asian hours on Friday. The daily chart analysis suggests an ongoing bearish bias as the pair is confined within the descending channel pattern.
However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls to near the 30 level, suggesting a strengthening of a bearish bias. A decisive break below the 30 mark would indicate an oversold situation and a potential for an upward correction soon.
On the downside, the GBP/USD pair hovers around its seven-month low at 1.2487, recorded on November 22. A successful break below this level could amplify bearish momentum, potentially driving the pair toward its yearly low at 1.2299, last seen on April 22, followed by the lower boundary of the descending channel 1.2260 level.
Regarding resistance, the GBP/USD pair may revisit its nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2606, followed by the 14-day EMA at 1.2635, aligned with the descending channel's upper boundary. A successful break above this critical region could weaken the bearish bias, paving the way for a move toward the five-week high of 1.2811, marked on December 6.
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | 0.09% | 0.16% | -0.03% | 0.21% | 0.26% | 0.21% | 0.00% | |
EUR | -0.09% | 0.07% | -0.10% | 0.13% | 0.17% | 0.11% | -0.09% | |
GBP | -0.16% | -0.07% | -0.18% | 0.05% | 0.08% | 0.04% | -0.14% | |
JPY | 0.03% | 0.10% | 0.18% | 0.24% | 0.28% | 0.20% | 0.04% | |
CAD | -0.21% | -0.13% | -0.05% | -0.24% | 0.04% | -0.01% | -0.20% | |
AUD | -0.26% | -0.17% | -0.08% | -0.28% | -0.04% | -0.07% | -0.24% | |
NZD | -0.21% | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.20% | 0.00% | 0.07% | -0.18% | |
CHF | -0.01% | 0.09% | 0.14% | -0.04% | 0.20% | 0.24% | 0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 7,111.35 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 7,106.06 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 82,943.09 per tola from INR 82,883.73 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
---|---|
1 Gram | 7,111.35 |
10 Grams | 71,113.45 |
Tola | 82,943.09 |
Troy Ounce | 221,188.60 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister For International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, on Friday, warned against speculative moves on the foreign exchange (FX) market, adding that he will take appropriate action against excessive forex moves.
Am gravely concerned about forex moves.
Will take appropriate action against excessive forex moves.
Alarmed, including over speculative moves.
Believe it is not appropriate for me to comment further on forex.
Won't comment on BOJ's communication given its independence.
At the time of press, the USD/JPY pair was down 0.13% on the day at 157.12
The role of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its own words, is "..to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth.” This involves maintaining the inflation rate at a stable 4% level primarily using the tool of interest rates. The RBI also maintains the exchange rate at a level that will not cause excess volatility and problems for exporters and importers, since India’s economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade, especially Oil.
The RBI formally meets at six bi-monthly meetings a year to discuss its monetary policy and, if necessary, adjust interest rates. When inflation is too high (above its 4% target), the RBI will normally raise interest rates to deter borrowing and spending, which can support the Rupee (INR). If inflation falls too far below target, the RBI might cut rates to encourage more lending, which can be negative for INR.
Due to the importance of trade to the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in FX markets to maintain the exchange rate within a limited range. It does this to ensure Indian importers and exporters are not exposed to unnecessary currency risk during periods of FX volatility. The RBI buys and sells Rupees in the spot market at key levels, and uses derivatives to hedge its positions.
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day's good two-way price moves and climbs back to the $2,600 mark during the Asian session on Friday. Against the backdrop of persistent geopolitical risks, trade war fears and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish shift, the threat of a partial US government shutdown ahead of the Friday night deadline drives some haven flows towards the precious metal.
The flight to safety leads to a modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields, which keeps a lid on the recent US Dollar (USD) rally to a two-year top and turns out to be another factor lending support to the commodity. That said, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish signal that it would slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025 should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and the USD, which, in turn, caps the non-yielding yellow metal.
From a technical perspective, the post-FOMC slump below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining negative traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the upside. Hence, any subsequent move up might continue to face immediate resistance near the overnight swing high, around the $2,626 region. Some follow-through buying, however, might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the XAU/USD to the next relevant hurdle near the $2,652-2,655 supply zone. A sustained strength beyond the latter could negate the negative bias and pave the way for additional gains.
On the flip side, the monthly low, around the $2,583 region touched on Thursday, could protect the immediate downside, below which the Gold price could drop to the $2,560 area en route to the $2,537-2,536 zone or the November swing low. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $2,500 psychological mark before the XAU/USD eventually drops to the very important 200-day SMA support, currently pegged near the $2,472 region.
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its losing streak that began on December 12, trading around $28.90 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Friday. The price of the grey metal reached a fresh three-month low at $28.74 in the previous session.
The non-yielding assets like Silver receive downward pressure as central banks emphasize the need for caution regarding additional rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for caution regarding additional rate cuts, noting that inflation is likely to remain persistently above the central bank's 2% target.
Moreover, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its ultra-low interest rates on Thursday as President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats loomed over Japan's export-driven economy. Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates unchanged, with policymakers divided on the appropriate response to the country’s slowing economic growth. On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) decided to keep its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged.
Concerns about potential tariffs from the upcoming Trump administration have heightened worries about weak demand for Silver as an industrial input, causing the metal to underperform in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Silver prices face challenges due to the constrained industrial outlook, driven by overcapacity in China’s solar panel industry, which has led photovoltaic companies to join a government self-discipline program to regulate supply.
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losing streak for the fifth successive session, trading around $68.90 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday. Crude Oil prices, denominated in dollars, are on track for a weekly decline due to a stronger US Dollar (USD). A higher US dollar makes crude Oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies, which in turn dampens Oil demand.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against its six major peers, trades hovers around 108.50, the highest level not seen since November 2022, following the Federal Reserve (Fed) implemented a hawkish 25 basis point (bps) rate cut on Wednesday. The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, or ‘dot-plot,’ showed only two rate cuts in 2025, down from four cuts projected in September.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for caution regarding additional rate cuts, noting that inflation is likely to remain persistently above the central bank's 2% target. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its ultra-low interest rates as President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats loomed over Japan's export-driven economy. Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates unchanged, with policymakers divided on the appropriate response to the country’s slowing economic growth.
According to Reuters, J.P. Morgan analysts projected that Oil supply will exceed demand by 1.2 million barrels per day. The Oil market is anticipated to face a surplus next year, as weakening economic activity and a sluggish Chinese economy further dampen growth in crude Oil demand.
Additionally, energy transition measures have significantly affected demand in China. On Thursday, state-owned energy giant Sinopec announced that the country’s gasoline demand is expected to peak by 2027, as diesel and gasoline consumption weakens in the world’s largest oil importer.
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
The Indian Rupee (INR) recovers on Friday after depreciating to an all-time low of 85.12 in the previous session. The decline in crude oil prices might help limit the local currency’s losses as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could intervene in the market to prevent excess volatility.
However, a hawkish rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could spark the US Dollar (USD) broadly and exert some selling pressure on emerging market currencies, including the INR. Looking ahead, traders will focus on the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, which is due later on Friday. Also, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December will be released.
The Indian Rupee trades firmer on the day. The constructive outlook of the USD/INR pair remains intact on the daily chart as the pair holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nonetheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is over the midline near 70.95, suggesting an overbought condition. This means that additional consolidation should not be ruled out before positioning for any short-term USD/INR appreciation.
The ascending trend channel at 85.20 acts as an immediate resistance level for USD/INR. A decisive break above this level could see a rally to 85.50.
On the flip side, the first downside target is seen at 84.86, the lower boundary of the trend channel. A breach of this level could pave the way to 84.16, the 100-day EMA.
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
Raw materials | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
Silver | 29.015 | -1.14 |
Gold | 2593.51 | 0.24 |
Palladium | 904.45 | -0.13 |
The Japanese Yen (JPY) prolongs a two-week-old downtrend and hits a five-month low against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Friday. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept rates steady in a nearly unanimous vote on Thursday and flagged a cautious outlook for 2025 amid sluggish economic growth, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the JPY. Moreover, the widening US-Japan bond yield differential contributes to driving flows away from the lower-yielding JPY.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish signal that it would slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025 helps the US Dollar (USD) to preserve its strong weekly gains to a two-year top. This further fuels the USD/JPY pair's strong move-up to the 158.00 neighborhood. However, data showing that the Japanese Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew slightly more than expected in November, which could push the BoJ to raise interest rates early in 2025, provides some respite to the JPY bulls.
From a technical perspective, the overnight strong move up beyond the previous multi-month top, around the 156.75 area, was seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved on the verge of breaking into the overbought territory on the daily chart. This makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for any further gains.
Any meaningful slide below the 157.00 mark, however, now seems to find some support near the 156.75 region. Some follow-through selling could pave the way for a deeper corrective fall and drag the USD/JPY pair to the 156.00 round figure. The next relevant support is pegged near the 155.50 horizontal zone, below which spot prices could drop to the 155.00 psychological mark. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders.
On the flip side, bullish traders might now wait for a move beyond the 158.00 mark before placing fresh bets. The USD/JPY pair might then accelerate the positive move toward the 158.45 intermediate hurdle before aiming to reclaim the 159.00 round figure. The momentum could extend further towards the 159.60-159.65 region en route to the 160.00 psychological mark and the 160.20 hurdle. The latter coincides with the top boundary of the multi-month-old ascending channel and should act as a strong barrier.
Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Thu Dec 19, 2024 23:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 2.9%
Consensus: -
Previous: 2.3%
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraces its recent gains from the previous session against the US Dollar (USD) following the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) monetary policy decision on Friday. China’s central bank decided to keep its one- and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged at 3.10% and 3.60%, respectively, in the fourth quarterly meeting.
Australia's Private Sector Credit grew by 0.5% month-over-month in November, aligning with expectations. This followed a 0.6% increase in October, which marked the fastest monthly growth in four months. On an annual basis, Private Sector Credit rose by 6.2% in November, the highest growth rate since May 2023, up slightly from 6.1% in October.
The Aussie Dollar faces pressure as traders increasingly anticipate that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may begin cutting its 4.35% cash rate as early as February, amid mounting signs of an economic slowdown. Attention now shifts to the release of the RBA's latest meeting minutes due next week.
The US Dollar strengthened after the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized reported a 3.1% growth rate in the third quarter, surpassing both market expectations and the previous reading of 2.8%. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 220,000 for the week ending December 13, down from 242,000 in the prior week and below the market forecast of 230,000.
AUD/USD trades near 0.6230 on Friday, with daily chart analysis pointing to a persistent bearish bias as the pair continues to decline within a descending channel pattern. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 30 mark, signaling oversold conditions and suggesting the potential for an upward correction in the near term.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may test the descending channel's lower boundary near the 0.6130 level, highlighting a key support area in the current bearish trend.
The AUD/USD pair will likely encounter primary resistance near the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6310, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6346. A further hurdle lies at the descending channel’s upper boundary around 0.6390. A decisive breakout above this channel could propel the pair toward the eight-week high of 0.6687.
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | 0.01% | 0.08% | -0.06% | 0.17% | 0.17% | 0.08% | -0.01% | |
EUR | -0.01% | 0.06% | -0.05% | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.07% | -0.02% | |
GBP | -0.08% | -0.06% | -0.12% | 0.09% | 0.07% | -0.00% | -0.07% | |
JPY | 0.06% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.23% | 0.21% | 0.11% | 0.06% | |
CAD | -0.17% | -0.17% | -0.09% | -0.23% | -0.01% | -0.09% | -0.16% | |
AUD | -0.17% | -0.15% | -0.07% | -0.21% | 0.00% | -0.10% | -0.16% | |
NZD | -0.08% | -0.07% | 0.00% | -0.11% | 0.09% | 0.10% | -0.07% | |
CHF | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.07% | -0.06% | 0.16% | 0.16% | 0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
The People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) holds scheduled meetings on a quarterly basis. However, China’s benchmark interest rate – the loan prime rate (LPR), a pricing reference for bank lending – is fixed every month. If the PBoC forecasts high inflation (hawkish) it raises interest rates, which is bullish for the Renminbi (CNY). Likewise, if the PBoC sees inflation in the Chinese economy falling (dovish) and cuts or keeps interest rates unchanged, it is bearish for CNY. Still, China’s currency doesn’t have a floating exchange rate determined by markets and its value against the US Dollar is fixed mainly by the PBoC on a daily basis.
Read more.Last release: Fri Dec 20, 2024 01:15
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: 3.1%
Consensus: 3.1%
Previous: 3.1%
Source: The People's Bank of China
The NZD/USD pair remains under selling pressure around 0.5625 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The deep recession in New Zealand fueled the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate cut bets, which undermine the Kiwi.
The weaker-than-expected New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the third quarter raised the risk of further large-scale interest rate cuts from the RBNZ. The markets have priced in a 91% chance of another 50 bps RBNZ rate reduction in February.
”It supports the Reserve Bank getting on with official cash rate cuts and getting the OCR back to a more neutral level more quickly than they were anticipating in the November monetary policy statement,” said Harbour Asset Management fixed income and currency strategist Hamish Pepper.
On the other hand, the hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday lifts the USD and contributes to the pair’s downside. During the Press Conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made clear that the Fed is going to be cautious about further cuts. Later on Friday, investors will monitor the release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, which is expected to show an increase of 2.9% YoY in November.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at , as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1901 and 7.3086 Reuters estimates.
Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday that he is concerned about the recent foreign exchange move, including those driven by speculation. Kato added that he will ake appropriate action against excessive moves.
Sees stable FX movement as desirable, reflecting fundamentals.
Sees abrupt, unilateral movements in foreign exchange market.
To take appropriate action against excessive market movements.
Expresses serious concern over currency fluctuations.
At the time of writing, USD/JPY was up 0.06% on the day at 157.41.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Friday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.10% and 3.60%, respectively.
At the time of writing, AUD/USD is holding lower ground near 0.6222, down 0.32% on the day.
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Index | Change, points | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|---|
NIKKEI 225 | -268.13 | 38813.58 | -0.69 |
Hang Seng | -112.04 | 19752.51 | -0.56 |
KOSPI | -48.5 | 2435.93 | -1.95 |
ASX 200 | -141.2 | 8168.2 | -1.7 |
DAX | -272.71 | 19969.86 | -1.35 |
CAC 40 | -90.25 | 7294.37 | -1.22 |
Dow Jones | 15.37 | 42342.24 | 0.04 |
S&P 500 | -5.08 | 5867.08 | -0.09 |
NASDAQ Composite | -19.92 | 19372.77 | -0.1 |
The USD/CAD pair gathers strength to near 1.4405 during the early Asian session on Friday, bolstered by the firmer Greenback broadly. Traders will keep an eye on Canadian October Retail Sales and US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, which are due later on Friday.
The US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps), bringing its target range to 4.25% and 4.50%. The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or “dot plot”, indicated the US central bank's intention to reduce the number of interest rate cuts next year from four to just two quarter-percent reductions. This stance proved significantly more hawkish than market expectations, which boosts the US Dollar (USD) broadly.
On the other hand, a slowdown in Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in November fuelled the expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut rates further in 2025, though the era of jumbo reductions may be over. This might weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and act as a tailwind for USD/CAD.
“Overall, the November inflation report was mixed—while headline CPI eased to 1.9% year over year, core measures showed some stickiness. We continue to expect the Bank of Canada to trim policy rates by 25 basis points in January and shift toward a more gradual approach to cutting rates in 2025,” said Rachel Siu, head of Canadian fixed income strategy at BlackRock.
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.62386 | 0.38 |
EURJPY | 163.143 | 1.88 |
EURUSD | 1.03623 | 0.13 |
GBPJPY | 196.795 | 1.2 |
GBPUSD | 1.25006 | -0.5 |
NZDUSD | 0.563 | 0.12 |
USDCAD | 1.43979 | -0.34 |
USDCHF | 0.8988 | -0.2 |
USDJPY | 157.429 | 1.72 |
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