Новини ринків

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank kept the one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate steady at 2.50% on Sunday. Injects 500 billion yuan vs. the 499 billion yuan in MLF maturing today.

The MLF was last cut in August 2023, from 2.65%.

New Zealand’s Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) climbed into expansion territory, improving to 52.1 in January from the previous reading of 48.8, according to Business NZ on Monday. 

Market Reaction

At the press time, the NZD/USD pair is up 0.04% on the day to trade at 0.6127. 

About the Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI)

The Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI), released by Business NZ on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in New Zealand’s services sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production or employment. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for NZD. 

• AUD/USD trades in positive territory for four consecutive days near 0.6530. 
• The US January PPI came in stronger than expected, rising 0.3% MoM and 0.9% YoY.
• Financial markets are betting that the RBA will cut rates in the middle of the year.

The AUD/USD pair kicks off the new week on a positive note during the early Asian session on Monday. The uptick of the pair is supported by the decline of the US Dollar (USD). AUD/USD currently trades around 0.6530, losing 0.03% on the day. 

Data released by the US Labor Department on Friday showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) in January increased by 0.3% MoM from a 0.1% decline in December. The gauge rose 0.9% in a year, also exceeding forecasts. The stronger data represent a rise in inflation pressure at the start of 2024. However, the Federal Reserve (Fed) needs more data to consider before starting to cut the interest rate.

Meanwhile, the upside of the pair might be capped by the rising tensions in the Middle East. The leader of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group said it will broaden its war against Israel in the wake of recent strikes between the two sides. This, in turn, could boost a safe-haven currency like the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hasn't been expected to cut rates until after the Fed. Investors are pricing in August as the likely start for RBA rate cuts. Inflation in Australia has cooled down, but the central bank cannot attribute all of this to monetary policy success.  

Looking ahead, the RBA minutes will be released on Tuesday, and the FOMC minutes for the 30-31 January meeting will be due on Wednesday. The Australian Judo Bank PMI data will be released on Thursday, and FOMC Vice Chair Jefferson is set to speak later on the same day.