Новини ринків

• Gold price holds recent gains above $1,920 in the early Asian session.
• The US Treasury bond yield sell-off acts as a headwind for the US Dollar, benefitting the US Dollar-denominated Gold price.
• All eyes are on the Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) later in the Asian session.

Gold price gains some traction and holds above $1,920 during an early Asian session on Monday. The weaker-than-expected US jobs data on Friday dragged the US dollar sharply lower across the board and benefited the Gold price. 

The US economy added jobs at a slower-than-anticipated pace in June, as the Labor Department reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 209,000 last month, declining from a revised 306,000 in May. The market consensus expected the figure to increase by 225,000. 

Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate decreased from 3.7% to 3.6% in June and Average Hourly Earnings remained unchanged at 0.4%, above the market expectation of 0.3%. 

Following the US labor data, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields fell to 4.023%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the dollar’s value against a basket of six currencies, slumped to 102.22 the lowest level since June 23. The US Treasury bond yield sell-off acted as a headwind for the US Dollar, benefiting the US Dollar-denominated Gold price. 

Moving on, market players will now look for fresh cues from the Chinese CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which will feature later in the Asian session. Investors would then shift their focus toward the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the US University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment (July) later in the week. These data will determine the Gold price direction in the near term. The robust data could send US yields higher and weigh on Gold price. On the other hand, weak data could be positive for the precious metal.

Gold price technical levels

From the technical perspective, Gold price stands at the upper band of a descending trend channel on a four-hour chart. The initial resistance level is seen at $1,935 (High of July 7), while $1,915 acts as an immediate support level for the time being.

According to the latest recommendation by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) on Monday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) should leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50% when it meets this Wednesday for its monetary policy decision.

Key takeaways

“Most Shadow Board members recommend the Reserve Bank should keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50 percent in the upcoming July Monetary Policy Review.”

“While inflation pressures are still high and the labor market remains strong, the slowing in demand and economic activity and expectations for previous OCR increases to work their way through the New Zealand economy warrant a hold on further tightening.”

“However, one member recommended a 25-basis point increase, reflecting the view that inflation is sticky.”

• EUR/USD sustains Friday’s rebound to weekly highs through 1.0950.
• Latest US jobs report pours cold water on hawkish Fed rate hike outlook.
• Focus shifts to Germany’s ZEW survey and US CPI data this week.

EUR/USD is holding steady above 1.0950, sitting near eight-day highs of 1.0975 set on Friday. The pair is consolidating last week’s gains, in what seems to be a relatively quiet start to a big week ahead.

Investors digest Friday’s volatile trading activity, in response to the US labor market report, which fuelled further recovery in the EUR/USD pair from near the 1.0830 region. The main currency pair rose over a big figure on Friday after the US Dollar incurred heavy losses on disappointing US payrolls data. Non-farm payrolls for June came in at 209k versus a 225k estimate. Additionally, May and April NFPs saw a big downward revision, suggesting a cooldown in the job market.

The wage inflation data, represented by Average Hourly Earnings, was +0.4% in June against a +0.3% estimate and matched May's +0.4% which was revised upward from +0.3%. Following the US jobs data release, investors began to believe the Fed may not be as hawkish as expected, sending EUR/USD back toward 1.1000 at the expense of the US Dollar.

Markets are now pricing in roughly 70% odds of a Fed rate hike pause in September after the expected 25 basis points (bps) rate hike by the US central bank this month.

Meanwhile, mixed commentary from the European Central Bank (ECB) officials over the weekend, appears to be limiting the further upside in the Euro (EUR) for the time being. ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said, “Eurozone rates will soon reach their high point, but it will be more of a high plateau than a peak.” ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Portugal Governor, Mario Centeno, said that he expects Eurozone “inflation under 3% by the end of 2023.”

Next of note for traders remains the Chinese inflation data, which could have a significant impact on risk sentiment and the US Dollar valuations, in turn, influencing the EUR/USD price action. Also, in focus remains the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for July due later this Monday, in the absence of top-tier US economic data. This week’s Germany’s ZEW survey and US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be closely followed by EUR/USD traders.

EUR/USD: Technical levels to watch

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said over the weekend, “Eurozone rates will soon reach their high point, but it will be more of a high plateau than a peak.”

“Raising central bank inflation target isn't a good notion,” he added.

Related reads

• ECB’s Centeno sees inflation under 3% by the year-end
• EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Focus returns to inflation

In a speech over the weekend, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Bank of Portugal Governor, Mario Centeno, said that he expects Eurozone “inflation under 3% by the end of 2023.”

Additional quotes

"Inflation is coming down faster than the way up."

"We need to fuel this process and be very confident we can make it."

The Eurozone labor market is the "strongest" it's ever been.

Market reaction

EUR/USD was last seen trading at 1.0968, modestly flat on the day. The spot clings to Friday’s gains, at weekly highs.

Following 10 hours of bilateral meetings with senior Chinese officials on Saturday, US Treasury Secretary anet Yellen said that discussions were “direct” and “productive”, which will stabilize the rocky US=Sino relationship.

Key quotes

“The U.S. and China have significant disagreements.”

China’s “unfair economic practices” and recent punitive actions against US firms.

“But President (Joe) Biden and I do not see the relationship between the US and China through the frame of great power conflict. We believe that the world is big enough for both of our countries to thrive.”

“I do think we’ve made some progress and I think we can have a healthy economic relationship that benefits both of us and the world.”

• AUD/USD kicks off the week on the front foot near 0.6700, China’s inflation eyed

• AUD/USD opens the week on the right footing, near 0.6700.
• US Dollar licks disappointing US NFP-inflicted wounds amid productive US-Sino talks.
• All eyes now remain on the US CPI data and RBA Governor Lowe’s speech this week.

AUD/USD is seeing a positive start to the key United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) week, as Aussie bulls cheer Friday’s sharp sell-off in the US Dollar, gearing up for the Chinese inflation data release this Monday.

The US Dollar is nursing losses against its major competitors after Friday’s US labor market report showed weaker-than-expected growth in the headline Nonfarm Payrolls data. The US economy added 209K jobs in June vs. 225K expected and the downwardly revised previous reading of 306K. The wage inflation component in the jobs report rose 4.4 annually while the Unemployment Rate in the US ticked lower to 3.6% in the reported period, as widely expected.

Unimpressive US jobs report triggered a massive sell-off in the US Dollar alongside the US Treasury bond yields across the curve, as the US data dampened expectations of further rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) following the expected 25 basis points (bps) rate hike in July.

In response, the AUD/USD pair jumped nearly 1% on Friday and briefly topped the 0.6700 level, where it now wavers. The pair also draws support from ‘direct’ and ‘productive’ discussions between US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and senior Chinese officials after Yellen spent hours with them in a meeting over the weekend.

Looking ahead, immediate attention now turns toward the Chinese CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) data due for release later in the Asian session on Monday. The main event risks, however, for the Aussie remains the US CPI data and the speech by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor, Philip Lowe, scheduled on Wednesday.

AUD/USD: Technical levels to consider