Новини ринків

• NZD/USD fails to defend the week-start gap towards the north.
• 200-HMA, top line of immediate bullish channel and a fortnight-old falling trend line challenge Kiwi buyers.
• Convergence of 50-HMA, channel support puts a floor under the price.
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing for June eyed for clear directions.

NZD/USD retreats from intraday high to around 0.6135 as the pair traders await the top-tier PMIs from China and the US amid the early hours of Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Kiwi pair consolidates intraday gains after posting an upside gap to begin the trading week, not to forget the two consecutive weekly and quarterly falls in the last.

The Kiwi pair’s latest pullback could be linked to the inability to cross the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA), as well as the RSI (14) line’s retreat from the overbought territory. The same join the impending bear cross on the MACD indicator to lure the intraday sellers.

With this, the NZD/USD bears may aim for the 0.6100 round figure during the pair’s further declines. However, a convergence of the 50-HMA and the bottom line of a two-day-old rising trend channel, around 0.6090 by the press time, appears a tough nut to crack for the sellers.

In a case where the quote drops below 0.6090, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the previous weekly low of 0.6050 and then to the monthly bottom surrounding 0.5990 can’t be ruled out.

On the flip side, the NZD/USD pair’s rise past the 200-HMA, near 0.6145 at the latest, isn’t an open invitation to the bulls as the top line of the stated bullish channel, close to 0.6150, can test the pair’s further advances.

Even if the quote rises past 0.6150, a downward-sloping resistance line from June 15, near 0.6180 will act as the final defense of the bears.

NZD/USD: Hourly chart

Trend: Limited downside expected

• Gold Price marked three-week downtrend before bouncing off the key support, grinds higher of late.
• Hawkish Federal Reserve talks, United States growth numbers favor US Dollar and weigh on XAU/USD.
• Softer outcomes of Fed inflation gauge, mixed concerns about China prod Gold bears.
• Fed Minutes, US ISM PMIs and NFP will guide XAU/USD price.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) remains sidelined around $1,920, struggling to extend the previous day’s recovery, after declining in the last three consecutive weeks while also posting the first quarterly loss in three. That said, the yellow metal’s latest recovery could be linked to the softer US inflation clues and downbeat spending, as well as the broadly risk-on mood. However, the anxiety ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary policy meeting Minutes and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) limit the XAU/USD moves of late.

Gold Price grinds higher as mixed US data test hawkish Federal Reserve concerns

Gold Price rose the most in a fortnight on Friday after the United States inflation clues and spending figures failed to back the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) concerns. Even so, the upbeat United States growth figures versus the mixed European number defend the US Dollar bulls and weigh on the XAU/USD ahead of the key week.

In the last week, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, mostly known as the Real GDP, grew at the 2.0% rate for the first quarter (Q1) of 2023 versus 1.3% initial estimation. Further, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, for May, came in at 0.3% MoM and 4.6% YoY versus market expectations of reprinting the 0.4% and 4.7% figures for monthly and yearly prior readings.

It should be noted that the US Durable Goods Orders for May improved and the Consumer Confidence for June also rallied, which in turn back the hawkish Fed talks.

However, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price for Q1 2023 eased to 4.1% QoQ from 4.2% expected and prior whereas the Pending Home Sales slumped to -2.7% MoM for May compared to 0.2% expected and -0.4% prior (revised).

It’s worth noting that the US Core PCE Price Index marked the weakest increase in six months, which in turn joined the downbeat consumption and expenditure figures to challenge the hawkish Fed concerns and propel the Gold Price.

However, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell joined a slew of Fed officials to back the hopes of further rate hikes from the US central bank and defended the US Dollar, as well as weighed on the Gold Price. Among the important comments, Fed Chair Powell’s statement like, “A strong majority of Fed policymakers expect two or more rate hikes by year-end,” gained major attention.

Apart from the US data and Fed talks, downbeat European economics also helps the Gold sellers to remain hopeful as the same fail to underpin the hawkish bias at the European Central Bank (ECB).

During the last week, the preliminary readings of Germany’s inflation per the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 6.4% YoY in June from 6.1% in May and 6.3% expected. On the same line, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) favorite inflation gauge, namely the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), also jumped to 6.8% on a yearly basis from 6.3% prior and 6.7% market forecasts. However, the preliminary Eurozone HICP rose to 0.3% MoM versus 0.0% expected and prior while the yearly figures eased to 5.5% from 5.6% market forecasts and 6.1% previous readings. Further, the Core HICP also softened to 0.3% MoM and 5.4% YoY from 0.7% and 5.5% expected respectively, versus 0.2% and 5.3% prior in that order. Even so, the ECB Officials keep suggesting higher rates in the annual ECB forum.

Elsewhere, indecision about China’s economic recovery and the US-China tension also exert downside pressure on the XAU/USD price, due to Beijing’s status as one of the biggest Gold consumers. In the last week, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) conducted heavy Yuan-linked market moves to defend the domestic currency versus the US Dollar, which in turn flags concerns that the dragon nation will do whatever it takes to defend its economy.

Amid these plays, equities marked upbeat performance but yields remained sidelined while the US Dollar Index (DXY) pared weekend gains.

Looking forward, this week’s Fed Minutes, ISM PMIs and NFP will be crucial for the Gold traders to watch for clear directions. Also important are the Caixin PMIs for June from China, as well as central bankers’ speeches.

Gold Price Technical analysis

Gold Price closed on a positive note the last week, despite posting a three-week losing streak.

That said, a clear rebound from the five-week-old bearish channel’s support joined the upside break of a fortnight-old descending resistance line, now immediate support around $1,913, to tease the short-term XAU/USD bulls.

Adding strength to the recovery hopes are the bullish signals from the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) and upbeat conditions of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14.

Furthermore, a clearance of the 50-SMA adds strength to the upside bias about the Gold Price.

However, the 200-SMA and the stated channel’s top line, respectively near $1,948 and $1,954, hold the key to the dominance of the Gold buyers.

On the contrary, a downside break of $1,913 will again challenge the $1,900 key support, comprising the aforementioned channel’s bottom line.

Also acting as the downside filter is the latest bottom surrounding $1,890, a break of which could quickly drag the XAU/USD price towards the early March swing high near $1,858.

Gold Price: Four-hour chart

Trend: Corrective bounce expected

• EUR/USD stays defensive after posting consecutive three quarterly gains.
• Market’s lack of conviction in Fed’s hawkish bias, softer US inflation signals underpin Euro pair’s recovery.
• ECB policymakers’ defense of rate hike clues, despite less market acceptance, also propel EUR/USD price.
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI, final readings of June’s Eurozone, Germa HCOB PMIs eyed for intraday directions.

EUR/USD struggles to defend the previous weekly, as well as monthly and quarterly, gains as traders begin the key week on a cautious not around 1.0910-15 amid early Monday in Asia. In doing so, the Euro pair reassess the recent odds favoring the buyers ahead of the top-tier data/events from the US.

On Friday, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge prod hawkish expectations from the US central bank with the smallest yearly gain in six months. The same joined absence of any major hawkish comments from the US central bank officials, after a slew of Fed statements earlier in the last week, to prod the EUR/USD bulls. Even so, the major currency pair ended the last week, month and quarter on the positive side.

That said, US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, for May, came in at 0.3% MoM and 4.6% YoY versus market expectations of reprinting the 0.4% and 4.7% figures for monthly and yearly prior readings.

On the other hand, the preliminary Eurozone HICP rose to 0.3% MoM versus 0.0% expected and prior while the yearly figures eased to 5.5% from 5.6% market forecasts and 6.1% previous readings. Further, the Core HICP also softened to 0.3% MoM and 5.4% YoY from 0.7% and 5.5% expected respectively, versus 0.2% and 5.3% prior in that order.

It’s worth noting that the European Central Bank (ECB) tried defending their rate hike bias but softer inflation data and looming fears of Germany’s recession restrict markets from believing in them, which in turn test the EUR/USD bulls. Alternatively, the US data isn’t also too impressive but the Fed policymakers are comparatively more hawkish and have been received well.

Hence, EUR/USD traders may witness hardships in extending the latest recovery should this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary policy meeting Minutes and the US jobs report offer upbeat signals. It’s worth noting that today’s final readings of Germany and Eurozone HCOB PMIs for June and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for the said month will entertain intraday traders.

Technical analysis

A daily closing beyond a downward-sloping resistance line from June 22, close to 1.0920 by the press time, becomes necessary for the EUR/USD bulls to retake control.

• AUD/USD grinds higher after two consecutive quarterly, monthly losses.
• Softer-than-expected US data underpin risk-on mood and favor Aussie pair’s recovery from one-month low.
• Hawkish Fed talks, hopes of RBA’s pause in rate hikes prod pair buyers.
• RBA becomes the key event, China Manufacturing PMI will guide immediate moves.

AUD/USD begins the key week with a cautious mood as it makes rounds to 0.6660 after Friday’s stellar run-up, following the two consecutive weekly, monthly and quarterly losses. In doing so, the Aussie pair aptly portrays the market’s anxiety ahead of Tuesday’s crucial Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting. Also important to watch is Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary policy meeting Minutes and Friday’s US jobs report, not to forget China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI and the US ISM PMIs for June.

That said, the Aussie pair rallied the most in two weeks the previous day after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge prod hawkish expectations from the US central bank with the smallest yearly gain in six months.

US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, for May, came in at 0.3% MoM and 4.6% YoY versus market expectations of reprinting the 0.4% and 4.7% figures for monthly and yearly prior readings.

It should be noted that the downbeat US data bolstered equities and offered an additional upside boost to the risk-barometer pair.

Furthermore, hopes of China’s heavy investments to lift the world’s second-largest economy from losing the recovery momentum also allowed the Aussie pair to remain firmer.

Alternatively, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s support for “two more rate hikes in 2023” joined downbeat Aussie inflation numbers and PMIs to flag the RBA’s halt in rate hikes to weigh on the AUD/USD price.

Above all, the market’s lack of growth optimism joins the fears of the RBA’s no rate hike, versus the Fed’s another rate increase, to challenge the AUD/USD pair. However, Tuesday’s RBA Interest Rate decision will be crucial to watch as the Australian central bank surprised markets with a rate increase in the last two consecutive meetings.

For today, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June, expected 50.2 versus 50.9 prior, will precede the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for the said month, likely to improve to 47.2 from 46.9 previous readings, to direct the AUD/USD pair ahead of Tuesday’s RBA meeting.

Technical analysis

A clear upside break of a fortnight-old descending resistance line directs AUD/USD towards a convergence of the 200-DMA and the 100-DMA, near the 0.6700 round figure by the press time.