Gold remains above $2,600 amid geopolitical tensions, Fed easing speculation

• Gold price remains steady at $2,637 amid thin Thanksgiving trading.
• Trump's tariff threats weigh on Gold, but easing rhetoric towards Canada and Mexico offers some relief.
• Market eyes 70% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut, supporting gold as Treasury yields stay subdued.

Gold price consolidated around $2,630 on Thursday amid thin liquidity trading as US markets are closed for Thanksgiving. Geopolitics continued to drive the price of non-yielding metal, which dwindled during the last three trading days. The XAU/USD trades at $2,637, virtually unchanged.

Market mood improved on Thursday, partly due to Israel and Lebanon's 60-day ceasefire. However, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could keep Bullion prices firmly above $2,600.

US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff threats on China, Canada, and Mexico limited the advance of the golden metal, with traders flying towards the safety of the Greenback. Sources cited by Reuters said, “It did increase a bit of concern about the possible repercussions from these two countries. So that continues to remain an important support factor for gold.”

Following Trump’s remarks, Gold tumbled due to risks linked to his threats. However, recent developments suggest that the US President-elect has eased his rhetoric to Canada and Mexico.

Gold recovered after the report and as market participants eyed another 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the upcoming December meeting.

The swaps market sees a probability of 70% of such a decision, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, as the odds improved from around 55% at the beginning of the week.

This would keep US Treasury bond yields depressed, which could undermine the Greenback.

Ahead this week, the US economic docket is absent, barring a surprise of a Federal Reserve speaker in the media. Next Monday, the schedule will be busy with the release of S&P Global and ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller crossing the wires.

Daily digest market movers: Gold prices fluctuate near $2,630

• Gold prices recovered as US real yields remained unchanged at 1.9906%.
• US data released on Wednesday showed the economy growing 2.8% in Q3, below estimates but unchanged from the preliminary estimate.
• This, along with the latest Core PCE Price for October coming at 2.8% YoY up from estimates of 2.7%, suggests the disinflation process has stalled and that the Fed might begin to pause cutting rates.
• Data from the Chicago Board of Trade, via the December fed funds rate futures contract, shows investors estimate 24 bps of Fed easing by the end of 2024.

Technical outlook: Gold price advances modestly, clings to $2,630

Gold price is consolidated within the 50 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), each at $2,668 and $2,572, respectively. Nevertheless, some upside in the short term is seen due to Gold’s being slightly pressed toward the former, but buyers need to clear key resistance levels.

If Gold clears the 50-day SMA, the next stop would be the $2,700 figure. A breach of the latter will expose the psychological $2,750, and the all-time high at $2,790.

Conversely, If bears push prices below $2,600, it will open the door to testing the 100-day SMA of $2,572, immediately followed by the November 14 swing low of $2,536.

Oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have shifted bearishly, indicating sellers are in charge.