AUD/USD stays bullish despite Powell hawkish tilt, Aussie PMI eyed

• AUD/USD climbs to 0.6913, rebounding from a daily low of 0.6894, despite hawkish hints from Fed Chair Powell.
• Traders eye upcoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payroll data, with an expected increase of 146K in September payrolls.
• Aussie’s Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI expected to contract.

The Aussie Dollar ended September on a higher note, posting gains of over 0.22% against the Greenback, even though Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was slightly ‘hawkish’ in a speech. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6913 after bouncing off daily lows of 0.6894.

AUD/USD posts 0.22% gains as markets eye US economic data and Fed rate cuts

Wall Street printed minimal gains on Monday as investors shrugged off Fed Chair Powell's remarks that they will lower rates “over time.” Powell said, “This is not a committee that feels like it’s in a hurry to cut rates quickly,” adding that incoming data will guide them.

On the data front, the Chicago PMI increased 0.5% from 46.1 to 46.6 in September. The employment sub-component index rose 5.0 points, snapping two straight months of declines.

Other Fed speakers crossed the wires. Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic said he’s open to a 50-basis-point rate cut if job data warrants it. Meanwhile, Chicago’s Fed Austan Goolsbee stated he sees a case for extensive US interest rate cuts based on the economy's stance.

Aside from this, traders should be eyeing the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data on Tuesday. However, the spotlight will be on nonfarm payroll data for September, which is expected to increase by 146K vs. 142K in August. The unemployment rate is foreseen at 4.2%, unchanged compared to the previous reading.

On the Aussie side, the Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI for September in its final reading is foreseen to contract further, from 48.5 to 46.7, according to the consensus. For August, other data, like Building Permits and Retail Sales, are foreseen to show weakening signs.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The AUD/USD is upward biased, though printing a doji and a shooting star back-to-back candlesticks hints that the pair could drop from current levels.

Momentum suggests the pair could consolidate, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned flat at bullish territory.

Hence, the AUD/USD first resistance would be the year-to-date (YTD) high at 0.6942, followed by the 0.7000 figure. Conversely, a drop below 0.6900 will expose the September 27 low of 0.6867, followed by the September 25 low of 0.6817.