USD/CHF holds above 0.8400 as traders await Fed’s Powell speech

• USD/CHF holds positive ground near 0.8415 in Monday’s early European session. 
• Rising bets of further jumbo Fed rate cuts and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might weigh on the pair. 
• Traders brace for the Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Monday. 

The USD/CHF pair recovers to around 0.8415, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European session on Monday. However, the upside of the pair might be limited amid the bets of more big rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders will take more cues from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Michelle Bowman later on Monday. 

Slowing Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation data in August has prompted traders to bet the Fed to continue a fast pace of rate cuts as price pressures ease toward its 2% target. This, in turn, is likely to undermine the US Dollar (USD) in the near term. The CME FedWatch Tool showed that markets are pricing in nearly a 54% chance of a half-point cut in November, while the likelihood of a quarter-point cut stands at 46%.

Meanwhile, Israel expanded its attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, raising fears of a regional war, as Hezbollah said it will continue to fight even as it faces growing losses in its senior ranks. Traders will closely watch the development surrounding geopolitical risks. Any signs of escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost the demand for safe-haven flows, benefitting the Swiss Franc (CHF). 

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to lower its borrowing costs last week, bringing its key interest rate down by 25 bps to 1.0%. “I expect another two 25bp moves in December and March at the very least, primarily because I don’t see any near-term sources of depreciation for the franc without a stronger stance on intervention from the SNB. We are heading back towards zero relatively quickly,” said Adrian Prettejohn, Europe economist at Capital Economics.