EURUSD rallies to vault over 1.11 on tepid Monday

• EUR/USD climbed back over 1.1100 as rate cut hopes keep markets afloat.
• A thin week on the EU economic calendar leaves Fed rate focus front and center.
• The Fed is expected to begin cutting rates this week and deliver multiple cuts by year-end.

EUR/USD rose on a tide of Greenback shorting pressure on Monday, with bids getting lifted back above the 1.1100 price handle that flummoxed intraday action to cap off last week. Risk-on market sentiment has kicked off the new week firmly in control as investors stare off into the distance at expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Little of note exists on the economic calendar on the European side, outside of an appearance from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. With little of note on the data docket for the EU, Fiber markets will be hinging entirely on this week’s outing from the US central bank.

Forex Today: US data takes centre stage pre-FOMC gathering

US Retail Sales are slated for an update on Tuesday, but the key datapoint that would normally drive some level of volatility is not expected to move the needle this week unless the print comes in wildly out of alignment with forecasts. MoM US Retail Sales growth in August is expected to ease back to 0.2% from July’s 1.0%, while core MoM Retail Sales (excluding automotive purchases) are expected to tick down to 0.3% from 0.4%.

The Fed kicking off a new rate-cutting cycle on Wednesday is all but a given according to investors, and it now comes down to a debate of how much rather than when. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in around 60% odds that the Fed’s first rate cut in over four years will be a 50 bps decline in the Fed funds rate, with the remaining 40% expecting a more demure 25 bps. Rate markets are also pricing in a total of 125-150 bps in cuts by the end of the year, with interest rate traders seeing a roughly 80% chance that the Fed funds rate will hit 400-425 total bps by December 18 versus the current interest rate of 525-550.

EUR/USD price forecast

Monday’s one-sided price action has pulled Fiber bids back into the high end above 1.1100, but long-term bulls remain notably skittish on the chart. Price action is still mired in a technical trap after tumbling back from one-year highs in late August, and top side momentum remains tepid despite a bullish bounce from the 1.1000 handle last week.

EUR/USD daily chart