The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its decline on Friday after retreating to its record closing low in the previous session. Traders remain vigilant for possible interventions from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) through USD sales, which prevented the INR from depreciating past the crucial 84 level. However, the US Dollar (USD) demand from oil importers and foreign portfolios might weigh on the local currency.
Investors will closely monitor the US August employment data on Friday, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. Any sign of further weakening in the labor market could prompt the expectation of a deeper rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, could exert some selling pressure on the Greenback, making other currencies like Indian Rupee more attractive.
The Indian Rupee weakens on the day. The USD/INR pair remains confined within an ascending triangle on the daily chart. However, in the long term, the pair maintains the bullish vibe unchanged as the price holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The upward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) which stands in bullish territory near 59.55, supporting the buyers in the near term.
Sustained trading close above the 84.00-84.05 zone, the confluence of the psychological figure, the upper boundary of the triangle and the high of September 4, could see an upside breakout that may take USD/INR up to 84.50.
Any follow-through selling could drag the pair down to the ascending triangle support near 83.90. A breach below this level could revisit the 100-day EMA at 83.64.
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
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