USD/INR gathers strength ahead of Indian/US PMI data

• Indian Rupee edges lower in Tuesday’s Asian session. 
• Indian foreign inflows and lower crude oil prices might support the INR. 
• Investors will focus on the Indian August HSBC Services PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, which are due later on Tuesday. 

The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens on Tuesday, pressured by the recovery of the Greenback. The positive Indian equity market, the inflow of foreign funds and a decline in crude oil prices could limit the INR’s losses. However, the increased US Dollar (USD) demand by the importer, and safe-haven flows ahead of the key US labor market data, might weigh on the local currency. 

The Indian August HSBC Services PMI will be released on Tuesday ahead of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. All eyes will be on the US labor market reports on Friday, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings for August. The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's comments at Jackson Hole last month have made this Friday's NFP report more significant than usual. A weaker-than-expected outcome could trigger the market to price in a larger rate cut, exerting selling pressure on the USD. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains on the defensive amid global factors

• The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) eased to a three-month low at 57.5 in August. This figure came in weaker than the expectations and the previous reading of 57.9. 
• “New orders and output also mirrored the headline trend, with some panellists citing fierce competition as a reason for slowdown," noted Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC.” 
• HSBC India Services PMI is estimated to improve to 60.4 in August from 60.3 in July. 
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August is projected to rise to 47.5 in August versus 46.8 prior, while the Services PMI is forecasted to ease to 51.1 in August from 51.4 in July. 
• The market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in September, pricing in odds of nearly 69%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. 

Technical Analysis: USD/INR in consolidative mode, longer-term bullish potential intact

The Indian Rupee trades on a softer note on the day. The USD/INR pair keeps the bullish vibe on the daily timeframe, characterized by the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing above the midline. 

The potential upside barrier for USD/INR is seen at the 84.00 psychological figure. Any follow-through buying above this level could expose 84.50.

In the bearish case, the first downside target is located at 83.84, the low of August 30. Further south, the next cushion level emerges at the 100-day EMA at 83.62.