GBP/USD advances toward 1.3150 due to risk-on mood

• GBP/USD breaks its three-day losing streak due to improved risk sentiment.
• July's US PCE Index data has diminished expectations of an aggressive Fed rate cut in September.
• The Pound Sterling may advance further as the BoE is expected to reduce rates gradually in 2024.

GBP/USD halts its three-day losing streak, trading around 1.3140 during the Asian hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) faces challenges due to improved market optimism amid rising dovish expectations surrounding the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

However, July's US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index data led traders to scale back expectations of an aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut in September. PCE Price Index increased by 2.5% year-over-year in July, matching the previous reading of 2.5% but falling short of the estimated 2.6%. Meanwhile, the core PCE, rose by 2.6% year-over-year in July, consistent with the prior figure of 2.6% but slightly below the consensus forecast of 2.7%.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are 70.0% anticipating at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting. Traders are now likely to focus on the upcoming US employment figures, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for August, to gain further insights into the potential size and pace of Fed rate cuts.

On the GBP front, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to reduce interest rates gradually in the remainder of the year, which might help the Pound Sterling (GBP) hold its position. At the Jackson Hole Symposium, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that the second-round effects of inflationary pressures would be less significant than anticipated. However, Bailey also advised against hastening additional interest rate cuts, according to Reuters.