Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggles near $30 amid uncertainty over size of Fed interest rate cuts

• Silver price faces pressures in extending its upside above $30.00 as US bond yields surge.
• The Fed seems prepared to cut interest rates in September.
• Investors keenly await the US core PCE inflation data for July.

Silver price (XAG/USD) struggles to extend its upside above the psychological resistance of $30.00 in Tuesday’s New York session. The near-term outlook of the white metal remains upbeat as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely anticipated to start reducing interest rates from the September meeting. While investors seek clarity over the likely size by which the Fed will cut its key borrowing rates.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Funds Futures pricing data shows that the probability of a 50-basis points (bps) interest rate reduction in September is 28.5%, while rest are favoring a cut by 25 bps.

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly supported a quarter-to-a-percentage interest rate cut in September in her interview with Bloomberg on Monday. However, she kept doors open for a bigger one if the labor market deteriorates.

Firm optimism for Fed interest rate cuts in September continues to weigh on the US Dollar and bond yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, sees more downside below the year-to-date (YTD) low of 100.53. 10-year US Treasury yields jump to near 3.86% amid caution ahead of the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for July, which will be published on Friday.

Generally, higher yields on interest-bearing assets bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver, given that they reduce the opportunity cost of holding an investment in them.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price bounced back strongly after discovering firm buying interest near the August 1 high of $29.16 in a four-hour timeframe. The white metal is expected to extend its upside towards July 11 high of $31.75. Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $29.70 warrants more upside.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating a strong upside momentum.

Silver four-hour chart