Gold price consolidates in a range around $2,500, bulls not ready to give up yet

• Gold price remains confined in a range as bulls await more cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path.
• Dovish Fed expectations drag the USD to a multi-month low and lend support to the XAU/USD.
• Hopes for a ceasefire deal in Gaza remain supportive of the upbeat mood and cap the upside. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) registered modest losses on Monday as investors refrained from placing fresh bullish bets following the recent rise to a fresh record high and opted to wait for more cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path. Hence, the focus will remain on the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Powell’s remarks will be closely scrutinized for some hints about the expected interest rate-cut trajectory. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and determining the next leg of a directional move for the non-yielding yellow metal.

In the meantime, growing acceptance that the Fed will start its policy-easing cycle in September, amid signs of cooling inflation, drags the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to its lowest level since January. Apart from this, the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the protracted Russia-Ukraine war act as a tailwind for the Gold price. That said, the prevalent risk-on mood, along with hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza, might keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the XAU/USD. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bulls, suggesting that any meaningful corrective slide could be seen as a buying opportunity. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price traders await more cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path before placing fresh bets

• Gold price extends the sideways consolidative price move near the record peak as traders move to the sidelines and await more cues about the Federal Reserve before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. 
• The July FOMC meeting minutes, scheduled to be released on Wednesday, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance on Friday will be looked upon for hints about the possibility of a larger rate cut in September. 
• Market participants scaled back their bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Fed after the upbeat Retail Sales report for July released last week eased worries about a possible recession in the world's largest economy. 
• Meanwhile, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a greater chance that the Fed will begin its policy easing cycle at the September meeting and lower borrowing costs by over 200 basis points by the end of 2025.
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Monday that a debate about potentially cutting the policy rate in September is an appropriate one to have as the balance of risk has shifted more towards the labor market.
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the US economy is not showing signs of overheating, so central bank officials should be wary of keeping restrictive monetary policy in place longer than necessary.
• Moreover, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly downplayed concerns about a sharp US economic slowdown, though said that the US central bank needs to take a gradual approach towards lower borrowing costs.
• On the geopolitical front, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted a proposal to tackle disagreements blocking the hostage release deal with Hamas. 
• Negotiations are expected to resume this week, fueling optimism that a ceasefire will reduce tensions in the Middle East and the possibility of a region-wide conflict, further boosting investors' appetite for riskier assets. 

Technical Analysis: Gold price seems poised to appreciate further while above the $2,470-2,472 resistance breakpoint

From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action might still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase before the next leg up. The constructive outlook is reinforced by the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone. That said, bulls need to wait for some follow-through buying beyond Friday's all-time peak, around the $2,509-2,510 area, before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move. 

On the flip side, the $2,472-2,470 horizontal resistance breakpoint now seems to protect the immediate downside. Any further decline is likely to attract fresh buyers and remain limited near the $2,448-2,446 region. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively should pave the way for deeper losses. The Gold price might then accelerate the corrective decline further below the $2,400 mark, towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near the $2,392 area.