The Mexican Peso (MXN) returned six-tenths of one percent to Greenback bidders on Monday, paring back recent gains as Peso bulls took a breather. The US Dollar is broadly softer across the board to kick off the new trading week, but recent Peso-positive flows have briefly reversed direction.
Mexico has a scant release schedule on this week’s data docket, and all figures slated to print this week on the Peso side are strictly low-tier numbers. Mexican Retail Sales for the year ended in June are due on Tuesday, and are expected to contract by 1.8% YoY compared to the previous 0.3% growth.
Fortnightly headline and core Mexico inflation figures are due on Thursday. Core Inflation is forecast to tick up slightly to 0.19% from 0.18% in the first half of August, while headline Inflation is forecast to slump to 0.13% over the same period, down sharply from the previous 0.71%.
The Mexican Peso’s recent recovery against the US Dollar has sent USD/MXN bids skidding toward 18.50. Still, a long-run bullish trend in the chart leaves Peso bidders grappling with an accelerating pattern of higher lows as the Greenback trends higher against the MXN.
Price action is poised for a continued decline into the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 18.35, with a hard floor priced in at the rising trendline drawn from April’s lows near 16.25.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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