Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD trades with mild gains near $2,450, eyes on US Retail Sales

• Gold price posts modest gains around $2,450 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
• The US CPI inflation rose as expected in July. 
• Any signs of rising geopolitical tensions might lift safe-haven assets like Gold. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to nearly $2,450, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Thursday. The weaker US Dollar (USD) provides some support for the precious metal on the day. Investors will take more cues from US Retail Sales, weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production, which are due later on Thursday. 

Data released by the Labor Department on Wednesday showed that inflation in the US rose as expected in July. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.2% MoM in July, putting an annual inflation rate at 2.9%. Meanwhile, the core CPI, excluding food and energy, came in at a 0.2% MoM in July and a 3.2% annual rate, which is in line with the consensus. 

“Expectations now have shifted back in favour of just a 25 basis point cut, so that could be taking some of the momentum away from the gold market,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. The markets are now pricing in nearly a 41% chance of a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed in September, down from 50% prior to the release of US CPI data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) officials indicated a willingness to ease the policy, though they’ve been careful not to commit to a specific timetable and the pace of rate cuts. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday he wanted to see more evidence before supporting lower interest rates.  

On the other hand, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the yellow metal. Iran dismissed calls from the United Kingdom and other Western nations to refrain from retaliating against Israel after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month, according to the BBC.