Oil continues is winning streak for a fifth consecutive trading session after prices jumped substantially on Monday despite the bearish demand outlook from OPEC. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is following that narrative, pointing to the risk of a substantial surplus while OPEC is set to let loose of its production cuts. Still, geopolitical tensions over an immediate attack from Iran to Israel keep prices supported, and traders seem to be betting on OPEC deepening their production cuts to further support the black gold.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is getting torn between two major forces this Tuesday on the quote board. On the one hand, the much battered carry trades from last week are making a comeback against the US Dollar. On the other side, the Greenback itself is outpacing the Japanese Yen (JPY). This results in a near standstill in the DXY US Dollar Index chart ahead of Tuesday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers and Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.
At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $78.25 and Brent Crude at $81.40.
Oil price is shooting for the stars since Monday. The fact that both OPEC and the IEA are seeing substantial supply surplus at hand has traders doubling down on changes from OPEC, away from its commitment to reduce production limitations. Instead, more output might be needed, with risk of a split division within OPEC again.
On the upside, two other major moving averages are very close, with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $78.56 and the 100-day SMA at $79.83. If that 100-day SMA gets cleared, the $80 area opens up with an ultimate profit target level at around $87.12.
On the downside, the 200-day SMA came in for support on some profit taking in Asia at $77.69. Should price action slide back below it, a quick dip to $75.27 could be in the cards in a washout of this rally. A full unwind back to the start of the rally near $72.00 is possible in case of some bearish headlines or catalyst.
US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
© 2000-2024. Уcі права захищені.
Cайт знаходитьcя під керуванням TeleTrade DJ. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Інформація, предcтавлена на cайті, не є підcтавою для прийняття інвеcтиційних рішень і надана виключно для ознайомлення.
Компанія не обcлуговує та не надає cервіc клієнтам, які є резидентами US, Канади, Ірану, Ємену та країн, внеcених до чорного cпиcку FATF.
Проведення торгових операцій на фінанcових ринках з маржинальними фінанcовими інcтрументами відкриває широкі можливоcті і дає змогу інвеcторам, готовим піти на ризик, отримувати виcокий прибуток. Але водночаc воно неcе потенційно виcокий рівень ризику отримання збитків. Тому перед початком торгівлі cлід відповідально підійти до вирішення питання щодо вибору інвеcтиційної cтратегії з урахуванням наявних реcурcів.
Викориcтання інформації: при повному або чаcтковому викориcтанні матеріалів cайту поcилання на TeleTrade як джерело інформації є обов'язковим. Викориcтання матеріалів в інтернеті має cупроводжуватиcь гіперпоcиланням на cайт teletrade.org. Автоматичний імпорт матеріалів та інформації із cайту заборонено.
З уcіх питань звертайтеcь за адреcою pr@teletrade.global.