Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD seems vulnerable near $27.70-65 confluence hurdle breakpoint

• Silver comes under renewed selling pressure and erodes a part of the overnight strong gains.
• A move beyond the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart will pave the way for further gains.
• The technical setup on the daily chart warrants some caution for aggressive bullish traders.

Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong move up beyond the $28.00 round-figure mark and meets with some supply on Tuesday. The white metal maintains its offered tone through the early part of the European session and currently trades around the $27.75 region, down nearly 1% for the day.

From a technical perspective, the intraday break through a confluence hurdle comprising the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August fall favors bullish traders. Adding to this, oscillators on the said chart have just started gaining positive traction and support prospects for further gains. That said, failure near the 100-period SMA resistance warrants some caution. 

Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart – though have recovered from lower levels – are still holding in negative territory. This further makes it prudent to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the $28.00 mark, or the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, before placing fresh bullish bets. The XAG/USD might then climb to 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $28.45 region, en route to the $29.00 mark, which coincides with the 50% Fibo. level.

On the flip side, any further decline is likely to find some support near the $27.35 horizontal zone, below which the XAG/USD could accelerate the fall towards the $27.00 mark. The downward trajectory could extend further towards a three-month low, around the $26.40-$26.35 region touched last week, en route to the $26.00 round figure mark.

Silver 4-hour chart