Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong move-up of nearly 2% and edges lower during the Asian session on Friday. A generally positive tone across the global equity markets exerts some downward pressure on the safe-haven precious metal, though a combination of factors should help limit any meaningful downside. Fears of a wider Middle East conflict might keep a lid on the optimism, which, along with bets for bigger rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), could offer some support to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, dovish Fed expectations act as a headwind for the US Treasury bond yields and drag the US Dollar (USD) away from the weekly high touched on Thursday. This, in turn, favors bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the upside. Hence, any further decline might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited in the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases from the US. The market focus, meanwhile, will remain glued to the US consumer inflation figures, due for release next Wednesday.
From a technical perspective, the recent bounce from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support and the subsequent move up favors bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have again started gaining positive traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the upside. Hence, some follow-through strength towards the next relevant hurdle, near the $2,448-2,450 region, looks like a distinct possibility. The momentum could extend further towards challenging the all-time top near the $2,483-2,484 area touched in July. The latter is closely followed by the $2,500 psychological mark, which if cleared decisively will set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move.
On the flip side, the $2,412-2,410 horizontal resistance breakpoint now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $2,400 round-figure mark. Any further decline might continue to attract dip-buyers and remain cushioned near the 50-day SMA support, currently pegged near the $2,372-2,371 region. This should act as a key pivotal point, below which the Gold price could aim to retest last week's swing low, around the $2,353-2,352 area. Failure to defend the said support levels might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders and expose the 100-day SMA support, around the $2,342 zone.
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
© 2000-2024. Уcі права захищені.
Cайт знаходитьcя під керуванням TeleTrade DJ. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Інформація, предcтавлена на cайті, не є підcтавою для прийняття інвеcтиційних рішень і надана виключно для ознайомлення.
Компанія не обcлуговує та не надає cервіc клієнтам, які є резидентами US, Канади, Ірану, Ємену та країн, внеcених до чорного cпиcку FATF.
Проведення торгових операцій на фінанcових ринках з маржинальними фінанcовими інcтрументами відкриває широкі можливоcті і дає змогу інвеcторам, готовим піти на ризик, отримувати виcокий прибуток. Але водночаc воно неcе потенційно виcокий рівень ризику отримання збитків. Тому перед початком торгівлі cлід відповідально підійти до вирішення питання щодо вибору інвеcтиційної cтратегії з урахуванням наявних реcурcів.
Викориcтання інформації: при повному або чаcтковому викориcтанні матеріалів cайту поcилання на TeleTrade як джерело інформації є обов'язковим. Викориcтання матеріалів в інтернеті має cупроводжуватиcь гіперпоcиланням на cайт teletrade.org. Автоматичний імпорт матеріалів та інформації із cайту заборонено.
З уcіх питань звертайтеcь за адреcою pr@teletrade.global.