The Indian Rupee (INR) remains under pressure after falling to an all-time low at the open on Monday. The sell-off of the INR is backed by the risk-off environment, foreign outflows from India and other emerging markets, and US Dollar (USD) demand from importers. However, the FOMC’s dovish hold and weaker US July employment data might weigh on the Greenback and cap the pair’s upside. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to intervene foreign exchange market to prevent the local currency from depreciating.
Looking ahead, investors will monitor the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Monday, which is projected to improve to 51.0 in July from 48.8 in June. On Wednesday, the RBI interest rate decision will take centre stage, with no change in rate expected.
Indian Rupee weakens on the day. The positive stance of the USD/INR remains intact, with the pair holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and being supported by the uptrend line since June 3 on the daily chart. The upward momentum is also underpinned by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 65.0, suggesting a further upside looks favourable.
A decisive bullish breakout above the all-time high of 83.85 will attract some buyers to the 84.00 psychological level, followed by 83.50.
The first downside target emerges near the uptrend line around 83.75. A breach of this level will see a drop to 83.51, a low of July 12. The potential support level to watch is 83.47, the 100-day EMA.
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
USD | -0.20% | -0.09% | -0.04% | 0.13% | -1.85% | 0.09% | -0.85% | |
EUR | 0.20% | 0.12% | 0.17% | 0.35% | -1.55% | 0.29% | -0.63% | |
GBP | 0.08% | -0.12% | 0.04% | 0.21% | -1.78% | 0.17% | -0.75% | |
CAD | 0.04% | -0.16% | -0.05% | 0.19% | -1.82% | 0.12% | -0.79% | |
AUD | -0.14% | -0.36% | -0.24% | -0.19% | -2.01% | -0.06% | -0.96% | |
JPY | 1.74% | 1.69% | 1.77% | 1.81% | 1.98% | 1.96% | 0.98% | |
NZD | -0.09% | -0.30% | -0.20% | -0.14% | 0.04% | -1.95% | -0.98% | |
CHF | 0.82% | 0.63% | 0.75% | 0.80% | 0.98% | -1.01% | 0.90% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
© 2000-2024. Уcі права захищені.
Cайт знаходитьcя під керуванням TeleTrade DJ. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Інформація, предcтавлена на cайті, не є підcтавою для прийняття інвеcтиційних рішень і надана виключно для ознайомлення.
Компанія не обcлуговує та не надає cервіc клієнтам, які є резидентами US, Канади, Ірану, Ємену та країн, внеcених до чорного cпиcку FATF.
Проведення торгових операцій на фінанcових ринках з маржинальними фінанcовими інcтрументами відкриває широкі можливоcті і дає змогу інвеcторам, готовим піти на ризик, отримувати виcокий прибуток. Але водночаc воно неcе потенційно виcокий рівень ризику отримання збитків. Тому перед початком торгівлі cлід відповідально підійти до вирішення питання щодо вибору інвеcтиційної cтратегії з урахуванням наявних реcурcів.
Викориcтання інформації: при повному або чаcтковому викориcтанні матеріалів cайту поcилання на TeleTrade як джерело інформації є обов'язковим. Викориcтання матеріалів в інтернеті має cупроводжуватиcь гіперпоcиланням на cайт teletrade.org. Автоматичний імпорт матеріалів та інформації із cайту заборонено.
З уcіх питань звертайтеcь за адреcою pr@teletrade.global.