Gold price benefits from rate cut hopes and tensions in the Middle East – Commerzbank

The price of Gold rose to just under $2,470 per troy ounce this morning, approaching the record high of mid-July, boosted by comments made by Fed Chairman Powell on Wednesday evening, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Market expects a first Fed rate cut in September

“The price of Gold rose to just under $2,470 per troy ounce this morning, approaching the record high of mid-July. The price was boosted by comments made by Fed Chairman Powell on Wednesday evening, who opened the door to a rate cut in September at the press conference following the Fed meeting. According to Fed Funds Futures, the market now firmly expects a first rate cut in September.”

“After the weak US data yesterday, the market even started to price in a rate cut of 50 basis points, although Powell had actually ruled this out at the press conference. Today's US labor market data are therefore interesting, especially as Powell had shifted the Fed's focus more towards the labor market on Wednesday. Disappointing data may intencify the interest rate speculation, and the Gold price could in this case may rise further.”

“However, we are skeptical that the price increase will last. This is because we expect only two interest rate cuts by the Fed by the end of the year, while the market is already pricing in three rate cuts. However, Gold is also receiving support from the increasing tensions in the Middle East (see above), which is benefiting from its role as a safe haven.”