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- Australian Dollar dips, RBA rate hike hopes cool down
Australian Dollar dips, RBA rate hike hopes cool down
- Aussie experiences some pressure after mixed Australian CPI figures.
- Traders are keeping vigilance on the upcoming NFP data.
- Markets are backing down on the rate hike hopes of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The Australian Dollar continues to underperform against the US Dollar (USD), which is making a strong recovery following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision. Chinese economic woes and cooling rate hike bets on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) also pressure down the Aussie.
That being said the high inflation pressure continues to hold the RBA on the brink of rate cuts. Predictions propose that the RBA will be among the ultimate pockets of G10 countries to administer a rate cut. This foreseeable decision could prevent a further plunge of the Aussie.
Daily digest market movers: Aussie dips ahead of NFPs on Friday
- A consistent 'risk-off' mood pervades the market due to fears about a further deceleration of the Chinese economy, which significantly encumbers Australia's economic strength.
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed this week that Australia's Q2 headline CPI saw an escalating 1.0% QoQ, with an acceleration to 3.8% YoY from previously being 3.6%. Concurrently, June's headline CPI is expected to have fallen to 3.8% YoY.
- Foreseeing a staunch inflation rate that greatly exceeds the 2-3% target range, the RBA seems to exercise patience with policy adjustments.
- While markets hope for a September cut of the Federal Reserve (Fed), the odds of a hike in Q4 by RBA cooled down due to the economic concerns on China but it is still expected to delay cuts until Q2 from 2024 which might limit the downside for the Aussie.
- For the remaining parts of the Friday session, traders will observe the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report which is scheduled for release and could greatly affect the pair’s rhythm.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish tendencies confirmed, room for potential corrections
The AUD/USD trading beneath the 20, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) solidifies a generally bearish view. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has maintained a position below the 40 mark, implying some overselling activity. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) demonstrates flat red bars, indicating slight bearish momentum.
Yet, despite the AUD/USD pair appearing soft, the risk-sensitive Aussie may find support near the 0.6500 psychological mark with resistance standing at a high of 0.6580.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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