Crude Oil struggles to recover footing on Tuesday despite API barrel count contraction

• WTI US Crude Oil found a foothold above $77.00, but bearish pressure remains.
• Crude Oil markets have fallen back as geopolitical risk premiums get priced out.
• Uncertainty in Chinese fossil fuel demand keeps barrel prices pinned low.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) briefly fell below $77.00 per barrel on Tuesday before a meager recovery that left US Crude Oil markets grappling with a fresh bout of broad-market bearishness.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) noted on Tuesday that its week-on-week Crude Oil Stocks counts contracted again by a further 3.9 million barrels, adding onto the previous week’s -4.44 million barrel decline. The API’s weekly barrel counts contracted even further than the expected -2.47 million barrel contraction as US supplies continue to draw down. The API’s weekly stock counts helped to bolster WTI bids in the late US market session, but overall price momentum remains sluggish and tilted toward the downside.

An increase in Chinese demand for Crude Oil, which was broadly leaned on in the first half of the year in order to prop up barrel bids, has given way to fears of a lopsided Chinese economy in the face of declines in global growth figures. With hopes of a broad recovery in Chinese fuel demand going up in smoke, markets are finding little reason to keep supporting Crude Oil prices as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to sizzle with no foreseeable impact after months of concerns about a possible crimp in global Crude Oil production.

WTI technical outlook

WTI has found a foothold after plunging towards $76.25 on Tuesday, but a bullish bounce failed to recover above the last swing low into $77.50. Intraday price action is leaning into the bearish side, though near-term momentum may have run its course and allow an elastic snap back to the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $79.80.

Daily candlesticks paint a notable bearish picture, with US Crude Oil prices threatening to backslide to early June’s bottom bids near $72.50 and price action descending almost unimpeded below the 200-day EMA at $79.23.

WTI hourly chart

WTI daily chart