GBP: Doing well on and off the pitch – ING

If England reaching the Euro 2024 final wasn’t enough positive news, the UK posted stronger than expected growth numbers for May Thursday morning. The monthly GDP indicator rose 0.4% MoM, doubling expectations and showing a healthy rebound from April’s 0.0%, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

GBP remains surprisingly bullish

“The impact on the Pound Sterling (GBP) from GDP data was muted, but GBP remains the best performing G10 currency this week, largely on the back of some hawkish narrative from Bank of England (BoE) speakers following a quiet period around the election.”

“We were not surprised to hear the two most hawkish MPC members, Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann, sound the alarm on risks of easing too early – but Chief Economist Huw Pill’s comments did matter to a greater extent, as he is a more accurate benchmark for consensus within the committee. Pill’s comments yesterday mostly stressed the persistence and upside risks in services inflation, shedding light on greater doubts about an August cut.”  

“The market’s dovish bets have been trimmed, with now only 14bp priced in for the 1st August BoE meeting, and 47bp in total for the year. It will take some convincing developments in UK prices to convince markets an August cut is possible. That remains our base case anyway, so we believe that GBP strength will be short-lived. For now, EUR/GBP bulls like us will be happy with the pair not slipping below June’s 0.8400 lows.”