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21.06.2024, 06:57

Pound Sterling rises on robust UK Retail Sales

  • The Pound Sterling strengthens after UK Retail Sales grew more than expected in May.
  • Strong UK Retail Sales could weigh on BoE rate-cut hopes for August.
  • Investors will keenly focus on the preliminary PMIs for June for both the UK and the US.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges higher in Friday’s London session as the United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported stronger-than-expected Retail Sales data for May. The report showed that monthly Retail Sales rebounded, growing at a robust 2.9%, more than the 1.5% expected. On year, Retail Sales surprisingly rose by 1.3% while investors expected them to have declined by 0.9%.

Retail Sales are an indicator measuring consumer spending, which accounts for a major part of economic growth. A significant improvement in sales at retail stores despite the Bank of England's (BoE) maintaining higher interest rates indicates strong demand but also increasing price pressures in the pipeline. This, if sustained, could be a headache for the BoE, which is focusing on achieving price stability.

On Thursday, the BoE kept interest rates steady at 5.25% in a 7-2 vote split, as expected. BoE policymakers acknowledged the return of headline inflation to the bank’s target of 2% in three years but said that won’t be enough as price pressures in the service sector are still too high. Currently, financial markets expect that the BoE will start reducing interest rates in August, which means there will be no rate cuts before parliamentary elections. Pre-election polls show the Conservative Party of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is behind the opposition Labour Party by around 20 points, Reuters reports.

Going forward, investors will focus on the preliminary UK's S&P Global/CIPS PMI data for June, which will be published at 08:30 GMT. The PMI report is expected to show that the Composite PMI barely rises.

Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling edges higher against US Dollar

  • The Pound Sterling rises to 1.2670 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair rises due to strong UK Retail Sales data and a modest correction in the US Dollar. The US Dollar drops as a recent decline in the United States (US) inflation and Retail Sales data for May has led to rising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates in September.
  • According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Fed Fund Futures pricing data shows a 64% chance for rate cuts in September. The CME FedWatch tool also shows that there will be two rate cuts this year against one signaled by policymakers in their latest projections.
  • Contrary to market expectations, Fed policymakers continue to argue in favor of one rate cut this year. Officials say they want to see inflation declining for months before lowering interest rates.
  • In Friday’s session, the US Dollar will dance to the tunes of the US S&P Global PMIs data for June, which will be published at 13:45 GMT. The Composite PMI is expected to decline, although remaining above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, due to slowing growth in manufacturing and the service sector. As the PMI data gives clues about the economic health and overall demand, a weak number would indicate that the economy is off from boil, boosting Fed rate cuts bets for September.

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling remains below 20-day and 50-day EMAs

The Pound Sterling finds a temporary cushion near 1.2670 after the release of the upbeat UK Retail Sales data for May. However, the near-term appeal is uncertain as the GBP/USD pair is below the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which trade around 1.2700 and 1.2670, respectively.

The Cable struggles to hold the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support at 1.2667, plotted from the March 8 high of 1.2900 to the April 22 low at 1.2300.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls back into the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating that the upside momentum has faded.

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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