NZD/USD returns below 0.6200 after pulling back from two-month highs

• NZD/USD depreciates due to risk aversion as US NFP looms.
• CME FedWatch Tool suggests the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased to nearly 70.0%.
• New Zealand’s Finance Minister Nicola Willis insisted that the 2024 budget won't keep interest rates higher for longer.

NZD/USD pulls back from two-month highs, trading around 0.6190 during the European session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) gained ground due to higher US Treasury yields. However, the rising speculation of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September could limit the upside of the Greenback, underpinning the NZD/USD pair. Investors are likely awaiting key US employment data releases on Friday, including Average Hourly Earnings and Nonfarm Payrolls.

On Wednesday, the mixed economic data from the United States (US) fueled interest rate cut speculations by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The ISM US Services PMI soared to 53.8 in May, marking its highest level in nine months and significantly surpassing the forecast of 50.8. In contrast, the ADP US Employment Change report showed that 152,000 new workers were added to payrolls in May, the lowest in four months and well below the forecast of 175,000 and the downwardly revised figure of 188,000 for April.

A Reuters poll conducted from May 31 to June 5 has indicated that nearly two-thirds of economists now predict an interest rate cut in September. As per the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September by at least 25 basis points has increased to nearly 70.0%, up from 47.5% a week earlier.

In New Zealand, the Kiwi Dollar received support from the latest data released by Caixin, which showed that China's Services PMI rose to 54.0 in May from 52.5 in April, significantly beating market expectations of 52.6. Investors turn cautious ahead of Friday's export and import data from China, New Zealand's leading trading partner, for May.

According to the NZ Herald on Wednesday, New Zealand’s Finance Minister Nicola Willis insisted that the 2024 budget won't keep interest rates higher for longer, even as economists warned it may complicate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) efforts to cool inflation.