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Forex Today: Attention shifts to high-tier US data and BoC rate decision
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, June 5:
Following the sharp decline seen on Monday, the US Dollar (USD) Index edged slightly higher on Tuesday but failed to gather momentum amid retreating US Treasury bond yields. The US economic docket will feature ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI data for May on Wednesday. In the American session, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce monetary policy decisions as well.
The data from the US showed on Tuesday that JOLTS Job Openings declined to 8.059 million in April from 8.35 million in March. On a positive note, Factory Orders expanded by 0.7% on a monthly basis in April, matching March's increase. The bearish opening seen in Wall Street helped the USD hold its ground against its rivals in the early American session. With the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield falling more than 1% on the day, however, the USD struggled to gather further strength. Early Wednesday, the 10-year yield recovers modestly but remains below 4.4%. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade marginally higher on the day, while the USD Index holds steady above 104.00.
US Dollar PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.26% | -0.22% | -0.86% | 0.34% | -0.03% | -0.76% | -1.28% | |
| EUR | 0.26% | 0.07% | -0.59% | 0.63% | 0.10% | -0.51% | -1.03% | |
| GBP | 0.22% | -0.07% | -0.60% | 0.55% | 0.10% | -0.63% | -1.10% | |
| JPY | 0.86% | 0.59% | 0.60% | 1.19% | 0.87% | 0.24% | -0.25% | |
| CAD | -0.34% | -0.63% | -0.55% | -1.19% | -0.41% | -1.12% | -1.63% | |
| AUD | 0.03% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.87% | 0.41% | -0.61% | -1.19% | |
| NZD | 0.76% | 0.51% | 0.63% | -0.24% | 1.12% | 0.61% | -0.56% | |
| CHF | 1.28% | 1.03% | 1.10% | 0.25% | 1.63% | 1.19% | 0.56% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
During the Asian trading hours, the data from Australia showed that the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 1.1% in the first quarter. This reading followed the 1.6% growth recorded in the previous quarter and came in below the market expectation for an expansion of 1.2%. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said after the data releases that he expects the second-quarter GDP to be similarly difficult, noting that the drop in the savings ratio drop shows Australians are under pressure. AUD/USD's reaction was muted to this data and the pair was last seen trading little changed on the day at around 0.6650.
Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare reported earlier in the day that Labor Cash Earnings rose 2.1% on a yearly basis, above the 1% increase recorded in March and the market expectation of 1.7%. After falling nearly 0.8% on Tuesday, USD/JPY reversed its direction and was last seen trading slightly below 156.00, where it was up 0.6% on the day.
The BoC is forecast to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% following the June policy meeting. Following Monday's indecisive action, USD/CAD gained nearly 0.4% on Tuesday. The pair stays relatively quiet and fluctuated in a tight channel below 1.3700 early Wednesday.
EUR/USD turned south and closed in negative territory on Tuesday, snapping a three-day winning streak. The pair moves up and down in a narrow band above 1.0850 in the European morning on Wednesday. Eurostat will release Producer Price Index (PPI) data for April later in the session.
After failing to stabilize above 1.2800, GBP/USD registered modest losses on Tuesday. The pair trades sideways near 1.2770 in the early European session.
Gold lost 1% on Tuesday and erased all the gains it recorded on Monday. XAU/USD fluctuates at around $2,330 in the European morning.
Bank of Canada FAQs
The Bank of Canada (BoC), based in Ottawa, is the institution that sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Canada. It does so at eight scheduled meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings that are held as required. The BoC primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at between 1-3%. Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Canadian Dollar (CAD) and vice versa. Other tools used include quantitative easing and tightening.
In extreme situations, the Bank of Canada can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the BoC prints Canadian Dollars for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker CAD. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The Bank of Canada used the measure during the Great Financial Crisis of 2009-11 when credit froze after banks lost faith in each other’s ability to repay debts.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of Canada purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the BoC stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Canadian Dollar.
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