The gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum on Monday. The yellow metal hit a record high near $2,441 during the Asian session on Monday amid renewed hopes for interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine also bolstered safe-haven demand, with both nations launching attacks against each other over the weekend.
Later on Monday, gold traders will focus on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Bostic, Barr, Waller, Jefferson, and Mester speeches, which might offer some insight into the future path of monetary policy. The cautious approach or hawkish comments from Fed officials could limit the precious metal’s upside.
Gold price trades with a positive bias on the day. The precious metal breaks above an ascending trend channel that has formed since May 2. Technically, the yellow metal maintains the bullish outlook unchanged on the four-hour chart as it is above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding above the midline around 82.50. Nonetheless, the overbought RSI condition indicates that further consolidation cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term gold upside.
An all-time high of $2,440 acts as an immediate resistance level for XAU/USD. A decisive break above this level will see a rally to the potential upside barrier at the $2,500 psychological level.
On the flip side, the resistance-turned support level at $2,415 will be the first downside target for the yellow metal. The crucial contention level is located at the $2,400 round number, followed by a low of May 16 at $2,370.
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro.
USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
USD | -0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.02% | 0.14% | 0.03% | |
EUR | 0.03% | 0.05% | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.18% | 0.09% | |
GBP | -0.01% | -0.06% | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.02% | 0.13% | 0.03% | |
CAD | 0.00% | -0.05% | 0.03% | 0.01% | -0.01% | 0.14% | 0.04% | |
AUD | 0.01% | -0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.13% | 0.04% | |
JPY | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.16% | 0.07% | |
NZD | -0.14% | -0.18% | -0.13% | -0.14% | -0.13% | -0.16% | -0.10% | |
CHF | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.04% | -0.04% | -0.04% | -0.07% | 0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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