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- BoJ’s Noguchi: Main scenario is that future rate hikes are likely to be slow
BoJ’s Noguchi: Main scenario is that future rate hikes are likely to be slow
Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the “main scenario is that future rate hikes are likely to be slow, but that depends on economic data.”
Additional quotes
Will take into account cost-driven inflation and policy adjustment if higher wages lead more to higher prices.
It will take a considerable amount of time till positive cycle takes root.
The likelihood of reaching 2% inflation target in about 2 years is rising.
Some big firms are benefiting from weaker Yen.
Prolonged Yen weakness could have various impacts including on wages and prices.
Those factors will have to be taken into account when deciding monetary policy.
BoJ will cautiously monitor the likelihood of achieving 2% trend inflation.
Cannot say whether there will be another rate hike this year.
Unexpected strength in the US economy is one of the reasons behind Yen’s weakness.
It is natural for the BoJ to respond if wage hikes, labour shortages intensify and increase price pressure.
Market reaction
At the press time, USD/JPY is consolidating its bounce near 154.30, still down 0.06% on a daily basis.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan has embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy since 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds.
The Bank’s massive stimulus has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy of holding down rates has led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices have led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which has exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. Still, the Bank judges that the sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% target has not yet come in sight, so any sudden change in the current policy looks unlikely.
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