Natural Gas (XNG/USD) price rallies for a fourth consecutive day, posting a nearly 6.5% gain this week. Gas prices got another boost overnight after a Bloomberg Intelligence article reported that in diplomatic circles there is talk around the idea of incorporating Ukraine into NATO, which would be oil on the fire for Russia. Adding to this, increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East underpin Gas prices as Israel redirects its troops towards the Lebanon border.
The DXY US Dollar Index, meanwhile, is hovering around 104.00 ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for March, which looks crucial for the interest-rate outlook for the rest of this year. A disinflationary print would fall in line with what the Fed has been communicating. However, any surprise upticks could turn into a massacre for markets as investors could interpret that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell and the broader Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are making the biggest policy mistake in decades. The release of the Minutes from the recent Fed meeting could ease any extensive moves on the back of the CPI print earlier this Wednesday.
Natural Gas is trading at $2.03 per MMBtu at the time of writing.
Natural Gas prices are jumping higher with two main drivers coming out of the geopolitical corner. The idea that Ukraine could be considered to join NATO is a seismic shift in terms of power balances in Europe. It would ask markets to reprice the whole energy complex with both Oil and Gas seeing a massive risk premium priced in over a longer period of time. In the short term, any further upticks will come out of the Middle East after Israel announced it is sending troops to Lebanon under the pretense that Hezbollah is operating there, keeping a potential risk for disturbances in Gas transit in the region.
With this rally heading into its fourth day, the next key mark on the upside is the historic pivotal point at $2.13. Should Gas prices pop up in that region, a broad area opens up with the first cap at $2.20, near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
On the downside, the 55-day SMA around $1.89 should be there as a safety net. Next, the multi-year lows at $1.60 will be acting as support, with $1.65 as the first line in the sand. In case of a breakdown below these levels, traders should look at $1.53 as the next supportive area.
Natural Gas: Daily Chart
Supply and demand dynamics are a key factor influencing Natural Gas prices, and are themselves influenced by global economic growth, industrial activity, population growth, production levels, and inventories. The weather impacts Natural Gas prices because more Gas is used during cold winters and hot summers for heating and cooling. Competition from other energy sources impacts prices as consumers may switch to cheaper sources. Geopolitical events are factors as exemplified by the war in Ukraine. Government policies relating to extraction, transportation, and environmental issues also impact prices.
The main economic release influencing Natural Gas prices is the weekly inventory bulletin from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a US government agency that produces US gas market data. The EIA Gas bulletin usually comes out on Thursday at 14:30 GMT, a day after the EIA publishes its weekly Oil bulletin. Economic data from large consumers of Natural Gas can impact supply and demand, the largest of which include China, Germany and Japan. Natural Gas is primarily priced and traded in US Dollars, thus economic releases impacting the US Dollar are also factors.
The US Dollar is the world’s reserve currency and most commodities, including Natural Gas are priced and traded on international markets in US Dollars. As such, the value of the US Dollar is a factor in the price of Natural Gas, because if the Dollar strengthens it means less Dollars are required to buy the same volume of Gas (the price falls), and vice versa if USD strengthens.
© 2000-2024. Уcі права захищені.
Cайт знаходитьcя під керуванням TeleTrade DJ. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
Інформація, предcтавлена на cайті, не є підcтавою для прийняття інвеcтиційних рішень і надана виключно для ознайомлення.
Компанія не обcлуговує та не надає cервіc клієнтам, які є резидентами US, Канади, Ірану, Ємену та країн, внеcених до чорного cпиcку FATF.
Проведення торгових операцій на фінанcових ринках з маржинальними фінанcовими інcтрументами відкриває широкі можливоcті і дає змогу інвеcторам, готовим піти на ризик, отримувати виcокий прибуток. Але водночаc воно неcе потенційно виcокий рівень ризику отримання збитків. Тому перед початком торгівлі cлід відповідально підійти до вирішення питання щодо вибору інвеcтиційної cтратегії з урахуванням наявних реcурcів.
Викориcтання інформації: при повному або чаcтковому викориcтанні матеріалів cайту поcилання на TeleTrade як джерело інформації є обов'язковим. Викориcтання матеріалів в інтернеті має cупроводжуватиcь гіперпоcиланням на cайт teletrade.org. Автоматичний імпорт матеріалів та інформації із cайту заборонено.
З уcіх питань звертайтеcь за адреcою pr@teletrade.global.