Pound Sterling trades sideways as investors await March US inflation data

• The Pound Sterling consolidates as investors seek fresh guidance on interest rates.
• UK Retail Sales for food items rose sharply in March due to early Easter while overall demand remains subdued.
• The US inflation data for March will guide expectations for Fed rate cuts in June.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is stuck in a tight range around 1.2660 against the US Dollar in Tuesday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair trades sideways as investors shift focus to the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, to be published on Wednesday, which will likely provide some clues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) could start reducing interest rates.

The US Dollar juggles in a narrow range as well ahead of the inflation data. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly above 104.00.

Meanwhile, the appeal for the Pound Sterling slightly improves as surveys show that the United Kingdom economy will deliver modest growth this year after falling to a technical recession in the second half of 2023. The latest projections from the UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) showed that the economy is forecast to grow by 0.8% this year. Domestic demand has rebounded while geopolitical tensions remain a major concern, resulting in supply chain disruptions, the OBR report said.

This week, investors will focus on the UK monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the factory data for February, which will be published on Friday. The data will give a snapshot of the state of the economy after the 0.2% GDP expansion registered in January. The breakdown among sectors will also provide data from the country’s manufacturing sector, which is considered a leading indicator for overall demand. 

Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling stays on sidelines, following US Dollar’s footprints

• The Pound Sterling turns sideways after recovering to 1.2660 against the US Dollar as investors shifted focus to the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be published on Wednesday. 
• US Monthly headline and core inflation, which strips off volatile food and energy prices, are both forecasted to have risen at a slower pace of 0.3% from 0.4% in February. In the same period, economists expect the annual headline CPI to accelerate to 3.4% from 3.2%, while the core inflation is anticipated to decelerate to 3.7% from 3.8%. 
• The inflation data will provide cues about when the Federal Reserve will start reducing interest rates. Currently, market expectations lean towards the June policy meeting for the Fed pivoting to rate cuts. However, upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March has shaken the confidence of investors. Strong labor market data has strengthened the inflation outlook, allowing Fed policymakers to avoid consideration for rate cuts for now.
• On the United Kingdom front, the speculation for the Bank of England lowering interest rates from the June meeting has escalated. UK’s inflation came in below expectations in the first two months of this year. Also, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said two or three rate cut expectations this year are “reasonable”.
• A significant fall in the UK inflation is majorly driven by weak consumer spending. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported on Tuesday that robust spending on food items boosted Retail sales in March. Demand for food items rose due to early Easter but the broader picture remains subdued as wet weather dented sales of other goods.
• Meanwhile, the UK economic outlook improves as large businesses see economic uncertainty easing ahead. A survey by audit and consultancy firm Deloitte said that uncertainties driven by Brexit, the pandemic, and inflation that have clouded the business scene for much of the last eight years “seem to be clearing." 

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling consolidates around 1.2660

The Pound Sterling demonstrates a sideways performance as investors await the US inflation data for fresh guidance. The GBP/USD trades back and forth around 1.2660, and remains inside Monday’s trading range. The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2570 supports the Pound Sterling bulls.

On the downside, the psychological level of 1.2500 plotted from December 8 low will be a major support for the Cable.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants.