AUD/USD hovers below 0.6500 weekly lows amid strong US data, RBA in focus

• AUD/USD stays at 0.6490, pressured by surging US Treasury yields and a strengthening US economic outlook.
• Mixed manufacturing PMI readings highlight contrasting economic narratives between the US and Australia.
• Upcoming RBA minutes and comments from central bank officials to offer insights into Australia's monetary policy trajectory.

On Monday, the Australian Dollar registered losses of 0.4% against the US Dollar, sponsored by an improvement in business activity in the United States (US). However, with the Tuesday Asian session beginning, the AUD/USD is virtually unchanged at 0.6490, near the weekly lows at the time of writing.

Australian Dollar struggles for direction against a robust US Dollar, with market eyes on RBA minutes and policy cues.

The economic docket features essential data driving financial markets' price action. Firstly, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed that March’s Manufacturing PMI improved to expansionary territory for the first time in nearly eighteen months. Figures came at 50.3, exceeding estimates of 48.4 and February’s 47.8. Before the ISM release, S&P Global depicted the US economy as beginning to slow down, as the March number came at 51.9, down from 52.2.

Following the data release, US Treasury yields soared, underpinning the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the currency against six peers, aims up 0.42% at 104.96, after briefly peaking above 105.00.

The market reaction is linked to traders cutting bets for a quarter of a percentage point by the Federal Reserve’s June meeting.

Delving into over-the-weekend data, Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented that the US Core PCE aligned with their estimates. He said they need more evidence before cutting rates, adding they aren’t in a hurry to cut rates.

In addition, the Aussie’s Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI reading for March was 47.3, below estimates of 47.8. According to the report, conditions deteriorated due to falls in new work inflows, leading to a reduction in manufacturing output. This is the second consecutive negative reading in the manufacturing segment.

Upbeat data from China keep the AUD/USD from further sliding, as China’s Caixin PMIs beat estimates in March, with new export orders increasing.

Ahead of the day, AUD/USD traders will dissect the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes, looking for cues regarding the forward path of monetary policy. As of writing, RBA Assistant Governor Kent is crossing the wires.

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The AUD/USD seems to have bottomed out at around current levels, yet the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish. If sellers push prices below the March 5 low of 0.6477, look for a pullback toward the February 13 low of 0.6442, ahead of 0.6400. On the flip side, the first resistance would be the 0.6500 mark, followed by the confluence of the 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs) at 0.6544.