FOMC signals cuts coming, just not yet – Wells Fargo

As was widely expected, the FOMC left the fed funds target range unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% after its March meeting.

The Summary of Economic Projections showed that the vast majority of the Committee continues to believe some easing of policy will be appropriate this year. The median projection for the federal funds rate at year-end was unchanged from December's projection at 4.625%. However, the distribution of expectations shifted higher for 2024 and the median dot for 2025 and 2026 moved up 25 bps, implying an incrementally more hawkish outlook. Notably, the median ’longer-run’ dot also moved higher.

We continue to look for the FOMC to start reducing the fed funds rate at its June 12 meeting. However, the risks to our outlook are skewed toward the FOMC beginning to ease a little later in the summer or potentially proceeding at a slower pace that leads to less than the 100 bps of easing we project through the end of this year. 

While risks to the FOMC beginning to cut the fed funds rate skew toward later in the year, balance sheet normalization looks likely to occur somewhat earlier. We think an announcement to slow the pace of quantitative tightening is coming at the May 1 meeting, although we would not be surprised if it slipped to the following meeting on June 12.