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20.03.2024, 01:18

ASX 200 depreciates to near 7710 after snapping its winning streak, awaits Fed decision

  • ASX 200 loses ground ahead of Fed policy decision.
  • RBA’s Bullock underscored that the battle against inflation is not yet won.
  • Chinese Foreign delegation stressed that China-Australia relations are on the right track.

The ASX 200 Index snaps its three-day winning streak, edging down to near 7710 on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has opted to keep interest rates unchanged at a 12-year high of 4.35%, maintaining its stance for the third consecutive meeting.

Reserve Bank of Australia issued a cautiously worded statement that refrained from providing struggling buyers with hope for an imminent rate cut. RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that "the war is not yet won" against inflation. In her monetary statement, she acknowledged that inflation remained high but did not disclose any specifics regarding the timing or possibility of rate cuts, merely stating that the bank was not "ruling anything in or out."

Australian equity market followed commodity-linked stocks in early hours, driving movements, with notable gains from Fortescue Metals, up by 1.90%, and Woodside Energy, up by 1.16% at the time of reporting. Core Lithium, Telix Pharmaceuticals, and Paladin Energy lead the top gainers in the ASX 200 Index, while Amcor, Perseus Mining, and South32 are among the top losers.

Mineral Resources, a leading diversified resources company, has entered into a farm-in agreement with Lord Resources for the Horse Rocks lithium project. Earlier this week, the company also finalized a binding head of agreement with Poseidon Nickel to acquire the Lake Johnston nickel concentrator plant.

According to a recent report commissioned by the Chamber of Minerals and Energy of WA (CME), the Western Australian resources sector saw a significant increase in spending by 32% last year, reaching a record $132 billion. Data from the CME's annual economic contribution factsheets reveal that the direct economic contribution in the state also experienced a notable rise, exceeding $77 billion, equivalent to almost $27,000 per Western Australian.

During the meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Australia's Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong, the Chinese side emphasized the highly complementary nature of the economies of China and Australia, noting their significant potential. Stressing that China-Australia relations are on the right track, it was emphasized that there should be no hesitation, deviation, or reversal in the progress made.

 

RBA FAQs

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.

Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.

Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

 

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