Dow Jones Industrial Average Forecast: DJIA softly up on Monday, buoyed by 38,500.00

• The Dow Jones is the best of the indexes on Monday.
• S&P 500, NASDAQ slightly in the red as Dow Jones holds steady.
• Markets gear up for US CPI inflation on Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up on thin margins for Monday, trading on the high side of 38,500.00 as its counterpart indexes are slightly softer on the day. Investors are buckling down for Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print, and investors will be looking for easing price growth to signal the approach of rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). 

Dow Jones News: Markets spread as investors await the next iteration of US CPI inflation

The Materials and Energy Sectors are Monday’s top performers halfway through the day’s trading session, up 1.1% and 0.56% respectively. On the low side, Industrials and Real Estate are both i nthe red about six tenths of a percent on Monday.

The DJIA’s top performers are UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) and Nike Inc. (NKE), neck-and-neck at 2.5% apiece, closely followed by Walt Disney Co. (DIS), up 2% on Monday. The Dow Jones’ worst performer is Boeing Co. (BA), shedding 3.3%,

Boeing, beleaguered by multiple crashes and investigations in recent years, is once again slated to be the subject of a DOJ criminal investigation after a mishap with an Alaska Airlines flight could have been catastrophic. Boeing was forced to admit they could not find a maintenance record for the plane following the blowout that saw a panel fall off the plane mid-flight.

US CPI inflation in the crosshairs

Tuesday brings US inflation figures, and investors will be looking for signs that US price growth is cooling enough to push the Fed closer to making rate cuts. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing in nearly 70% odds of a first rate cut from the Fed at the June policy meeting.

US CPI Preview: Forecasts from 10 major banks, inflation still too high

February’s MoM US CPI is expected to tick upwards to 0.4% from 0.3% as lopsided inflation continues to weigh on the Fed’s rate cut outlook. Core MoM CPI is forecast to tick down to 0.3% from the previous 0.4%. YoY CPI is expected to hold steady at 3.1% with Core annualized CPI forecast to print at 3.7%, down slightly from 3.9%.

Dow Jones technical outlook

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) grinds higher on Monday, climbing into 38,775.00 after bottoming out near 38,475.00 early in the day. The Dow Jones remains on the low side of last week’s peaks near 38,960.00.

The DJIA remains down from all-time peaks above 39,200.00 set in February, but a near-term floor sees the index trading north of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 38,295.00. The DJIA has outrun the 50-day and 200-day SMAs since crossing into bull country back in November.

Dow Jones chart, 5-minute