EUR/USD found some room on the top end on Friday, climbing to a fresh high for the week near 1.0980. Bullish momentum got pulled down after investors realized the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print was more complicated than the initial reaction.
US NFP job additions came in above expectations, but the previous print was steeply revised lower, taking it down from an 11-month high. European final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures broadly came in at expectations, and markets will be pivoting to face next Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation prints for both the US and the euro area.
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
USD | 0.13% | -0.23% | 0.29% | 0.04% | -0.58% | 0.10% | 0.00% | |
EUR | -0.13% | -0.38% | 0.17% | -0.09% | -0.72% | -0.04% | -0.16% | |
GBP | 0.24% | 0.37% | 0.54% | 0.28% | -0.34% | 0.34% | 0.23% | |
CAD | -0.29% | -0.17% | -0.54% | -0.26% | -0.88% | -0.21% | -0.33% | |
AUD | -0.04% | 0.09% | -0.28% | 0.26% | -0.62% | 0.04% | -0.06% | |
JPY | 0.58% | 0.72% | 0.33% | 0.87% | 0.61% | 0.69% | 0.56% | |
NZD | -0.10% | 0.04% | -0.34% | 0.21% | -0.06% | -0.67% | -0.12% | |
CHF | 0.04% | 0.16% | -0.21% | 0.32% | 0.07% | -0.56% | 0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD rose to a new eight-week high on Friday, climbing to 1.0981 before settling into the day’s range near 1.0930. The pair is on pace to finish in the green for a third straight week, and the Fiber is up over 2.2% from the last swing low into the 1.0700 handle.
EUR/USD has closed bullish for all but three of the last 17 straight trading days, but that run will be threatened if the pair closes below 1.0951. The Euro is trading well above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0833, extending a bullish recovery after catching a firm bounce from a pullback to 1.0800.
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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