US Dollar going nowhere on quiet Monday ahead of NFP

• The US Dollar trades for most part in the green against major peers. 
• Markets brace for quite some headline risks ahead of the US Jobs Report on Friday.
• The US Dollar Index still orbits around 104.00 though could be seen choosing direction after this week.

The US Dollar (USD) is facing a very chunky week with traders needing to be on point if they want to survive the carnage ahead. Two main elements this week will be the hearing of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is set to face Senator Elisabeth Warren and other politicians in Congress and the US Jobs Report on Friday. Meanwhile headline flow out of the Chinese National People’s Congress and US President Joe Biden’s State of the Union could trigger some intraday volatility. 

On the economic front, all eyes of course will be on the usual suspects ahead of the US Jobs Report with the ADP Nonfarm Employment number and the JOLTS Job Openings report on Wednesday. As always, no connection between ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, though enough to create volatility besides the more than five US Fed speakers besides Jerome Powell that are due to release comments on the markets. 

Daily digest market movers: Keep a close eye on the monitors this week

• Head of the Philadelphia Fed Patrick Harker is due to take the stage later this Monday around 16:00 CET. 
• The US Treasury will head to markets to allocate a 3-month and a 6-month bill near 16:30 GMT. 
• Japan’s Nikkei Index has breached 40,000 for the first time ever. 
• Nikki Haley won the Columbia District (Washington DC) Primary, snapping the winning streak of former US President Donald Trump. 
• A few elements to already note in your calendar for this week which could bear some important headline risk: 
  • China holds its National Party Congress from March 5 to March 11. Be on the lookout for any headlines on easing and stimulus support for Chinese markets. 
  • Super Tuesday is ahead as well with Primaries for both the Republicans and Democrats in 17 states. 
  • US President Joe Biden is due to release its State of the Union on Thursday. 
• Equities are looking for direction with no real outliers to report. Only element worth mentioning in the far end of the risk spectrum is that Bitcoin is soaring near 3.5% this Monday. 
• According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, expectations for a Fed pause in the March 20 meeting are at 97%, while chances of a rate cut stand at 3%. 
• The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.20%, roughly sideways seeing last week’s range. 

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Grab your pitchforks

The US Dollar Index (DXY) enters another week of being caught between what can only be described as the pitchfork of Simple Moving Averages (SMA). On the topside the 100-day SMA (104.63) is making sure the DXY does not escape any higher, while the 55-day SMA (103.51) makes sure the Greenback does not slip back to the lower levels of 2024. This week  is bearing more headline risk and events which could finally move the needle and stage a breakout either way for the DXY. 

To the upside, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 103.94 is being well respected this Monday. Should the US Dollar be able to cross  above it, to 104.60, 105.12 is the next key level to keep an eye on. One step beyond there comes 105.88, the high from November 2023. Ultimately, 107.20 – the high of 2023 – could come back into scope. 

Looking down, the 200-day Simple Moving Average at 103.74 has been broken a few times recently, though it has not seen a daily close below it last week, showcasing its importance. The 200-day SMA should not let go that easily though, so a small retreat back to that level could be more than granted. Ultimately, should it lose its force, prices could fall to 103.22, the 55-day SMA, before testing 103.00.