USD/CAD dips then recovers as markets froth while digesting US CPIs, Canadian Retail Sales

• Markets churned on Thursday after mixed US PMI figures.
• Canada’s Retail Sales also spread.
• Friday to wrap up the week with Fed’s Monetary Policy Report.

USD/CAD drifted into the low end early Thursday as markets geared up for the day’s US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) print. Mixed results left markets a little less confident, and the pair traveled notable ground to wind up close to flat on the day.

Canada saw a similar mixed result in its Retail Sales figures, with sales volumes excluding automobiles coming in below expectations. Next up on the economic calendar will be Friday’s Monetary Policy Report from the Federal Reserve (Fed), but little of note is expected within the report itself following the Fed’s latest meeting Minutes released on Wednesday.

Daily digest market movers: USD/CAD churns and burns as data prints spread

• Canadian Retail Sales rose 0.9% in December compared to the forecast of 0.8%, rebounding from the previous month’s 0.0%.
• Canadian Retail Sales excluding Autos also rose but by a more sedate 0.6%, missing the 0.7% forecast but recovering from the previous -0.4%.
• US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended February 16 declined to 201K, coming in well below the 4-week average of 215.25K and even further away from the forecast of 218K. The previous week saw 213K (revised from 212K) new jobless benefits applicants.
• The S&P Global PMIs for February in the US were mixed  with Services underperforming but the Manufacturing sector gaining further ground as producers look hopeful they will avoid a recession.
• The Services component printed at 51.3 MoM versus the forecast 52.0, falling back from the previous month’s 52.5, while the Manufacturing component rose to 51.5 compared to the forecast 50.5 and January’s 50.7.
• US Existing Home Sales also rose in January with Existing Home Sales Change climbing 3.1% MoM, recovering from the previous -0.8% (revised up from -1.0%).
• Read More: US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI improves to 51.5

Technical analysis: USD/CAD falls back into near-term lows but then recovers to 1.3500

USD/CAD backslid into a prime buying area early Thursday, settling into 1.3440 before staging a recovery. The pair knocked back into 1.3510 as it remains lashed firmly to the 1.3500 handle in the near term. The day’s dip into a heavy supply zone also saw an intraday Fair Value Gap (FFVG) form between 1.3480 and 1.3455, which got filled almost immediately and set the stage for further gains provided the market’s change of character holds through the end of the week.

With Thursday’s down-and-up action on the USD/CAD, the pair is catching firm technical support from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3478. A pattern of higher highs is dragging the pair further into bull country as the USD/CAD recovers from December’s lows at 1.3177.

USD/CAD hourly chart

USD/CAD daily chart