US Dollar eats into its gains on calm Friday

• The US Dollar not breaking any pots this Friday with minor moves in either direction.
• Traders are taking some profit from the Greenback rally earlier this week with an empty calendar ahead.
• The US Dollar Index fails to close above the 100-day SMA and could slide back below 104.

The US Dollar (USD) is steady to lower this Friday with nothing really to report in markets. All eyes are rather on headlines in the papers with the landslide victory of former US President Donald Trump in both Nevada and the Virgin Islands, giving him a comfortable lead already early in the Primaries. The second big topic is the interview of former Fox news reporter Tucker Carlson with Russian President Vladimir Putin where the broad strokes are that Putin is not interested in invading the West, only Ukraine. 

On the economic front, a blank sheet with no economic data to report. Though one US Federal Reserve Speaker is due to make an appearance after the European Closing Bell. Lorie Logan from the Dallas Fed is set to speak around 18:30 GMT. 

Daily digest market movers: No news, no moves

• Germany's final inflation reading for January saw yearly Headline inflation closing off at 2.9%.
• Martin Kazaks from the European Central Bank Council said that rate cuts will be taking place this year for the ECB. It is just a matter of when the data is confirming the right time.
• The Senate is advancing with the aid for Ukraine and Israel, detaching the US Border Deal from the bill. 
• Equity markets are dragging their feet towards the end of this week. Although several indices are residing near all-time highs, some fatigue is showing, and some profit taking might creep in towards this week’s closing bell. 
• The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is now looking at the March 20th meeting. Expectations for a pause are 84.5%, while 15.5% for a rate cut. 
• The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades near 4.17%, though the jump in the yield from the lower 4.06% earlier this week is not reflected in the US Dollar. 

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Some fatigue

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing fatigue after the cost of finally moving away from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 103.61. Ideally a close above the 100-day SMA at 104.27 would have set forth the Greenback for more gains into next week, though US Dollar bulls are not supporting that plan. Instead, a week of false breaks took place and could mean that the DXY now falls back to the 200-day SMA for support. 

Should the US Dollar Index move higher again, first look for a test at the peak of Monday, near 104.60. That level needs to be broken and is more important than the 100-day SImple Moving Average snap at 104.28. Once broken above that Monday high, the road is open for a jump to 105.00 with 105.12 as key levels to keep an eye on. 

The 100-day SMA (104.28) is clearly the unreliable boyfriend in the rally at the moment. A false break on Monday and no support provided on Tuesday from the moving average opens the door for a bit of a squeeze lower. The first ideal candidate for support is the 200-day SMA near 103.61. Should that give way, look for support from the 55-day SMA near 103.02 itself.