Canadian Dollar recovers on upbeat Canadian GDP, Fed Powell still in the barrel

• The Canadian Dollar recovered some ground after GDP surprised to the upside.
• Canada saw 0.2% GDP growth in November, which beat consensus.
• Fed rate call and press conference due in the latter half of the US trading session.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) edged higher on Wednesday after Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures beat expectations to post growth for the first time since May. The Federal Reserve’s latest rate call is due at 19:00 GMT, with a press conference to be headed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 19:30 GMT.

Canada saw growth in its MoM GDP for the first time in seven months on Wednesday, sending the Canadian Dollar into recovery mode against the US Dollar (USD), but the CAD still remains in the red against several of its major currency peers. Loonie traders will be looking ahead to Thursday’s January Canadian Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures for Canada’s manufacturing sector after the Fed rate call dust settles.

Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar surges against the Greenback on GDP growth

• Canadian November GDP growth was a surprise on Wednesday, coming in at 0.2% MoM versus the forecast of 0.1%.
• Canadian GDP printed above 0.0% for the first time in seven months after revisions.
• S&P Global’s Canadian Manufacturing PMI for January is due Thursday, last MoM Manufacturing PMI printed in contraction territory at 45.4.
• US Fed broadly expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, market focus to pivot to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Press Conference at 19:30 GMT.
• Investors will be looking for hints about when the Fed will cut rates.
• Rate swap bets on a Fed cut in March lurched higher early Wednesday, now pricing in 65% chance of at least a 25 basis point rate trim by March 20 meeting.
• The US Dollar backslid after ADP Employment Change figures came in well below expectations and an unexpected backslide in the Chicago PMI.
• ADP Employment Change in January fell to 107K versus the forecast for 145K, December’s 158K (revised down from 164K).
• January’s Chicago PMI declined to 46.0 instead of the forecasted uptick to 48.0 against December’s 47.2 (revised up from 46.9).
• Volatile ADP figures are prone to steep revisions and has a sketchy-at-best track record for previewing the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print slated for Friday.
• ADP Employment Change has seen revisions in all but a single month since 2007.

Technical Analysis: Canadian Dollar climbs over the Greenback on Canadian GDP upshot

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has chalked in some gains on Wednesday, climbing around a fifth of a percent against the US Dollar as the Greenback recedes across the broader market. The CAD is still softer against the Japanese Yen (JPY), the market’s single best-performing currency in the mid-week trading session. The Loonie has shed over half a percent against the Yen for Wednesday.

USD/CAD tumbled to 1.3360 in early US trading, falling 0.6% from the day’s peak of 1.3437. Intraday momentum is dragging the pair back into the 1.3400 handle ahead of the Fed’s policy statement, and investors will be bracing for whips in the USD/CAD.

If the Canadian Dollar achieves a bullish close against the US Dollar on Wednesday, the USD/CAD will etch in its fifth consecutive down day as the pair pulls away toward the downside from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the 1.3500 handle.

USD/CAD Hourly Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart